Frank Lampard deserves the chance to keep Everton up – because he's done it once and I believe he'll do it again.
But I fear he'll have to plot another route to safety in front of the most critical audience in the country at Goodison Park. If the going is good, or when unity of purpose is essential, Everton fans are a fantastic, passionate crowd.
When Lampard's side pulled off a great escape last season, the atmosphere at vital home wins against Chelsea, Manchester United and Crystal Palace was unbelievable. But it's 28 years since Everton won a trophy, and that yearning for the good times to return sometimes flips into anxiety and criticism.
It must be baffling for Lampard to reconcile a gritty, hard-fought 1-1 draw at Manchester City with the awful 4-1 home defeat against Brighton, where some fans were walking out after 57 minutes. That inconsistency drives managers mad.
The mood swings among the supporters at Goodison are probably more pronounced than at any other major club – like I said, that may be rooted in the 1995 FA Cup being the last tangible success they enjoyed.
As someone who has sat in a room and told a manager he is being let go, I cannot vouch for it being one of the most horrible things you can go through in football. And if Everton are inclined to hand Lampard his cards, it will not be a decision they take lightly.
You have to put lots of different factors into the mix, like the players' data: Have they stopped running for the manager? When we made a change at Macclesfield this season, the stats showed a 12 per cent drop in the players' output; in our first game under the new regime, they ran further than any distances they had covered before.
You also look at mistakes – are they one-offs or do they keep recurring? If you need to improve the squad, is there money to spend? Everton are investing heavily in a new stadium, and after laying out £560 million on new signings under current owner Farhad Moshiri since 2016, there must be a limit on finances.
Apart from the players, has the manager lost the crowd's support? In Frank's case at Everton, I think the vast majority of fans are still behind him.
You look at other clubs struggling in the Premier League, and I still think Lampard is better-equipped than most to keep Everton above the dotted line.
I fear for Southampton – Nathan Jones wasn't an obvious choice to succeed Ralph Hasenhuttl, but how are we going to find out whether young British managers can prosper if they are never given a chance?
Gary O'Neil did a terrific job holding the fort at Bournemouth after Scott Parker was sacked, but since he got the job on a permanent basis the going has been tougher, so they could drop, too.
David Moyes' experience will surely count in West Ham's favour now they have stopped the rot after five successive defeats, and I still think Steve Cooper will dig out enough results for Nottingham Forest to survive.
That leaves Wolves, Leeds and Leicester as potential relegation candidates – and of those three, I am most worried about Leeds.
Great club, tremendous atmosphere at Elland Road every week, great energy on the pitch... but there's a certain naivety about Jesse Marsch's young side that makes them vulnerable. So for me, Everton survive – but Southampton, Bournemouth and Leeds are staring down the barrel.
