The recent collapse of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal spells disaster for millions. The year-old deal has allowed 1,000 ships to export food products from Ukraine by sea, including 80% of the grain going to the World Food Programme. The biggest recipients of Ukrainian grain have been China, Spain, Turkey and Italy, but 57% of it went to 14 countries currently defined as most threatened with starvation, including Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen and the war-hit Horn of Africa.
Russia has stopped Ukraine’s food exports through the Black Sea, citing multitudinous western sanctions imposed on its own trade. Although these do not include farm products, Vladimir Putin says that if sanctions imposed since the 2022 deal are rescinded, he will resume the deal. Meanwhile, he is telling African leaders at his summit in St Petersburg this week that he will replace Ukraine’s grain with his own. This is unlikely to happen; nor can the EU realistically replace sea transport with land transport.
