History is working against the Saints…
Since the NFL merger in 1970 only three teams have started 2-6 and rallied to make the playoffs: Jacksonville in 2022; Washington in 2020; and Cincinnati in 1970.
— Jeff Duncan (@JeffDuncan_) October 28, 2024
The New Orleans Saints are in a very bad place logistically, as they sit at 2-6 for the first time since 2005, and no Saints team has ever made the playoffs after starting off with this record. In fact, only three teams have done so since 1970 when the NFL merger occurred, who are the Cincinnati Bengals in 1970, the Washington Commanders in 2020, and the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022. Of these three teams, each of them kept their head coach for at least two more years, and if history is any indication, this would be a mistake if Dennis Allen manages to turn things around for the Saints in a similar manner.
Starting with the 1970 Bengals, they started 2-6 before winning out to go to 8-6, and won their division with that record, however they ultimately lost in the divisional round by a score of 17-0 to the Baltimore Colts. Coach Paul Brown was there at the time, and he got a whopping five more seasons after this turnaround, and had a mixed bag of results which is more than we can say for the other two. In his five remaining seasons, here are the Bengals’ results:
- 1971: 4-10 record, fourth in the division
- 1972: 8-6 record, third in the division
- 1973: 10-4 record, first in the division, playoffs but lost in the divisional round by a score of 34-16 to Miami Dolphins
- 1974: 7-7 record, third in the division
- 1975: 11-3 record, second in the division, playoffs but lost in the divisional round by a score of 31-28 to Oakland Raiders
- Overall since 2-6 comeback: 40-30 record, two playoff appearances which were both divisional round losses
That is where things stop being so good, as the remaining two coaches faltered after their turnarounds. First up, Ron Rivera, who pulled off the 2-6 comeback in his first season as the head coach of the then Washington Football Team, finishing with a 7-9 record. They ultimately lost in the wild card round however by a score of 31-23 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After that, it was all downhill:
- 2021: 7-10 record, third in the division
- 2022: 8-8-1 record, fourth in the division
- 2023: 4-13 record, fourth in the division
- Overall since 2-6 comeback: 19-31-1 record, no additional playoff appearances before firing
Then finally we have Doug Pederson, who also completed this comeback in his first season as a head coach, finishing with a 9-8 record and bringing the Jaguars to the divisional round due to winning their division, where they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 27-20. Pederson still remains employed through early 2024, where they now funny enough sit at 2-6 through eight weeks. Here is their history since 2022:
- 2023: 9-8 record, second in the division
- 2024: 2-6 record, currently third in the division
- Overall since 2-6 comeback: 11-14 record, no playoff appearances (pending 2024 results)
Between all three of these coaches in the nine and a half seasons they got after their 2-6 comeback seasons, they had a combined record of 70-75-1 and two playoff appearances. That’s 146 games with a combined 47.9% win rate, and if that’s good enough to remain head coach of the New Orleans Saints, there are bigger discussions to be had.
