Announced to fanfare in 2009, HS2 was heralded as “playing a vital role in delivering the Government’s ambitious goal of Britain becoming net zero carbon by 2050”.
I wrote in my last column that the UK becoming net zero reduces global emissions by 0.9%. Positioning the country as a powerhouse in the fight against climate change isn’t just wrong; it’s also a terrible pitch for finishing HS2.
The benefits are obvious: connecting cities supports local, regional, and rural growth. Improving the UK’s transport network will attract inward investment.
Amid all the Tory conference kvetching over whether the Birmingham to Manchester section will be ditched, consider this: every significant UK infrastructure project in the UK has been an initial disaster (Act 1), then come the “professionals”, and Act 2 ensues.
HS2’s initial £33billion budget is now said to be £100billion. The real shock to me is that this is a surprise.
The UK has always had an Act 1 and Act 2 for infrastructure projects. For those of us who have put an extension on our houses, we know, “it’ll take twice as long and cost twice as much as you budget”.
That’s the Brits and building. Reports of a government infrastructure project running over budget are as dull as a “Tuesday follows Monday” headline.
The Jubilee line was one of the world’s most expensive infrastructure projects at £330 million per mile, costing two and a half times more than planned. Crossrail exceeded its budget by more than £4 billion.
For historical precedents, we need look no further than the Clifton Suspension Bridge, proposed in 1754 by William Vick, who bequeathed £1,000 for it. His will stated that the money should be invested and when it had grown sufficiently, the bridge could be built. In 1829 there was £8,000.
The trustees agreed on a budget, and Isambard Kingdom Brunel went to work. It was the glory days of British engineering, but the project went more than 1,000% over budget.
More recently, in 2003, England’s proposed new national football stadium, Wembley, was in financial crisis. It was saved by the intervention of Robin Saunders’s WestLB team.
But perhaps the closest comparison to HS2 is the Channel Tunnel. Announced in 1985, the project went 80% over budget for construction, 140% over budget for financing. Until the appointment of Chair Sir Alastair Morton, it was doomed. Today, 1.4 million trucks, 8.5million people, and 25% of our trade with Europe moves through it annually.
HS2 has many problems, notably our politicians’ inability to stand together in the national interest. Labour mayors Khan, Burnham, Rotherham, Coppard and Brabin say build it. William Hague calls it a national “disgrace”, and the yays and nays rebound around the media.
HS2 is the best chance we have to engage in meaningful “levelling up”.
It will help unite the country, break the severity of the north/south divide, and lift UK productivity from the bottom of the G7.
How do we pay for it? In 2008, the UK faced a severe threat from the financial crisis and found £450billion. The pandemic cost us £380billion. HS2 is an investment in the future of the UK, replacing Victorian-era infrastructure and providing opportunity without economic migration from already under-pressure towns and city centres.
History has shown us with the right leadership, we can deliver our national ambitions. Let’s start there.
If we have made it hard for those entering the workforce now to enjoy the freedom of movement so many of us had with Europe pre-Brexit, we owe it to future generations to give them the best possible foundations for productivity in a country slightly smaller than Florida.
It’s time for another Sir Alastair Morton and Act 2 of HS2 to commence.
⬤ Professor Stefan Allesch-Taylor is Professor of the Practice of Entrepreneurship at King’s College London.
