Understanding the Green Bay Packers’ needs and offseason plans first requires knowing where the roster stands exiting the 2021 season and entering 2022.
Going through position by position helps paint a clear picture of what GM Brian Gutekunst is facing this offseason, both from a personnel and salary cap standpoint.
Here’s our breakdown of the Packers’ roster at the quarterback position, with players under contract for 2022, free agents, early thoughts on the position group and a unique cap perspective from Ken Ingalls, a CPA who studies the salary cap:
Roster analysis
Under contract (4): Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Danny Etling
Free agents (0): None
Early thoughts: Rodgers will likely be the NFL’s MVP for the second straight year, but he has a decision to make on his future, and the team can’t start executing its own plan until he determines what he wants to do for 2022. His options are to retire, return to Green Bay or request a trade. Expect a decision in the next month. Love is entering Year 3, and the Packers brought back Benkert and Etling on futures deals, ensuring there’s depth at quarterback regardless of Rodgers’ decision. If Rodgers isn’t back, Love’s development will be thrust into the spotlight. Is he ready to be a starter? At least publicly, the Packers have said they want Rodgers back in 2022. The Packers would be contenders again with the future Hall of Famer under center for another season. Everything would be far more uncertain with Love.
Ken’s cap perspective
The quarterback position obviously comes down to the future of Aaron Rodgers. I’ve been firm since April 2020 I believe the Packers trade him in 2022, but let’s dig into their options. His contract currently sits first in cost at an enormous $46.7 million cap hit and there is 0% chance he plays for the Packers this season on this contract as it is currently written. Technically there are lots of ways this could go, but realistically I only see two paths forward: The Packers either extend Aaron Rodgers on a long-term deal or they trade him to another team. Reworking his deal for one more year, taking less money, or retiring seem off the table for me. If they extend Rodgers, it could provide $10-15 million in savings and cap flexibility before the March 16th deadline to be under the league salary cap. If they choose to trade Rodgers, things get a bit tighter as they need to hold onto his contract until after the March 16th deadline as trades are not allowed beforehand, even if a deal is reported earlier than this (as we have seen in past blockbuster deals). This means his cap savings if traded of $19.8 million would not be available until after free agency has begun, making signing free agents and their ability to wield the franchise tag much more difficult.
Jordan Love’s deal is fully guaranteed, and the Packers must decide on whether to exercise his fifth-year option clause after the 2022 season. Ideally, they see him in some extended action before making this decision as the fifth year is a massive, guaranteed salary likely in the $20+ million range. Circling back to Rodgers and if he does stay on a long-term deal, I see the Packers somewhat forced to trade Love elsewhere as he and his agent would want Love to have a realistic path to a starting opportunity. Kurt Benkert is back and is the leading candidate to be QB2 or QB3 depending on how things play out. I could see the Packers bring in another arm or two, maybe even in the draft.
