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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

ECB’s Lagarde: ‘We’re breaking the neck of inflation’ after cutting interest rates – as it happened

Uber Expedia United States ECB Interest Rates eurozone Euro European Central Bank Inflation
Christine Lagarde, President of European Central Bank (ECB), arriving for a press conference at Brdo near Kranj, Slovenia, today
Christine Lagarde, President of European Central Bank (ECB), arriving for a press conference at Brdo near Kranj, Slovenia, today Photograph: Antonio Bat/EPA

Closing post

Time to wrap up.

The head of the European Central Bank has declared that the process of ‘breaking the neck of inflation’ is underway.

Christine Lagarde said that the process of crushing inflation was not yet complete, even though the eurozone CPI fell to just 1.7% in September.

She told reporters:

“Have we broken the neck of inflation. Not yet.

Are we in the process of breaking that neck? Yes.”

Lagarde was speaking after the European Central Bank cut its headline interest rate by a quarter of a point to 3.25%.

The cut is the ECB’s first back-to-back interest rate cut in 13 years and its third of 2024. That puts it two ahead of the Bank of England, which is widely forecast to cut the cost of borrowing in the UK by 0.25 percentage points from the current level of 5% when its monetary policy committee meets again next month.

And in other news…

Meanwhile over in the US, retail sales rose more rapidly than expected last month, new data shwows.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after an unrevised 0.1% gain in August, ahead of forecasts of a 0.3% rise.

Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York, says:

“At the margin, it confirms the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient still.”

Lagarde: Trump trade barriers would be a "downside"

ECB president Christine Lagarde also warned that Europe’s economy could suffer if Donald Trump becomes the next US president and imposes fresh tariffs on European goods entering the US.

She told reporters today that trade is an important element of the European economy. So any restrictions, uncertainty or obstacles to trade would matters for the European economy, as it is very open and trades with other countries around the world.

She says:

Any hardening of the barriers, the tariffs, the additional obstacles on the possibility to trade with the rest of the world is obviously a downside.

During his first term, Trump hit Europe’s steel and aluminum exports with tariffs, and he often spoke critically of Europe’s trade surplus with the US.

According to Bloomberg this week, the EU has prepared a list of American goods it could target with tariffs if former President Donald Trump wins the US election and follows through on his threat to hit the bloc with punitive trade measures.

Lagarde: We are breaking the neck of inflation

Under questioning by journalists in Solvenia, ECB president Christine Lagarde says the central bank is in the process of ‘breaking the neck’ of inflation.

In a surprise turn of phrase, she declares:

“Have we broken the neck of inflation. Not yet.

Are we in the process of breaking that neck? Yes.”

Lagarde reveals that she popped to the market in Ljubljana (where the governing council held this month’s meeting) earlier this week, to check prices.

She points out that food, alcohol & tobacco prices across the eurozone rose 2.4% over the last year – that’s too high for the ECB’s comfort.

She adds:

Are we breaking the neck of it? Yes, I think so.

It’s not broken completely yet, but we’re getting there.

The ECB chief also admits that inflation is not yet sustainably at its 2% target, even though it fell below the target to just 1.7% last month.

The time at which we reach that 2% sustainably has advanced a bit, it is not yet now. We will have to wait further.”

Updated

Christine Lagarde says the European Central Bank is looking at the economic risks posed by the conflict in the Middle East.

She tells reporters that the ECB is concerned about the “major” and “horrifying” conflict, beyond the humanitarian implications, saying:

We are looking at the economic consequences. And we are looking in particular at the impact that this conflict could have on trade, because that part of the world is very much open to trade and the passage of ships…

We are also very attentive to the price of oil – that can be impacted.

The European Central Bank remains hopeful that it can pull off a ‘soft landing’ – cooling inflation without triggering a recession.

Christine Lagarde insists today that “the disinflationary process is well on track”, which allowed the central bank to cut rates today.

She told reporters:

“Are we still on a soft landing expectations? The answer is, on the basis of the information that we have, we certainly do not see a recession. So the euro area, on the basis of what we have, is not heading for recession.

And we are still looking at that soft landing.”

Christine Lagarde points out that eurozone inflation fell in September to 1.7%, the lowest since April 2021, thanks to a 6.1% drop in energy costs.

Updated

Eurozone government should design their fiscal and structural policies to make their economies more productive, competitive and resilient, Christine Lagarde says.

It is ‘crucial’ to follow up on the proposals made this year by Mario Draghi (on competition) and Enrico Letta (on reforming the single market), she adds.

Updated

The ECB expect the eurozone economy to strengthen over time, as rising real incomes lift household consumption, Lagarde says.

Lagarde says that the eurozone labour market remains resilient, with unemployment still low.

But employment growth is slowing, surveys suggest.

Lagarde: Economic activity has been somewhat weaker than expected

Turning to the economic picture, Lagarde says the incoming information suggests that economic activity has been “somewhat weaker than expected”.

Manufacturing has continued to contract, she warns, while the services sector ticked up in August, but has been more sluggish since.

Business are only expanding their investment slowly, while housing investment continued to fall.

Exports have weakened, especially for goods, she adds.

Lagarde: We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path

Over at the Bank of Slovenia, in Ljubljana, the European Central Bank is holding a press conference to explain why it has lowered eurozone interest rates today.

ECB president Christine Lagarde begins by running through the statement issued half an hour ago (it’s online here).

She’s explaining that the ECB’s governing council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, because data shows that the disinflationary process is well on track.

As flagged earlier, Lagarde says that inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year.

And she insists that the Governing Council is “determined” to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner.

She says:

It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.

In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

[They’re in Slovenia as part of the ECB’s policy of occasionally holding meetings away from Frankfurt]

Updated

German Conservative MEP Markus Ferber, who is the EPP Coordinator in the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON), has welcomed today’s rate cut.

Ferber says:

“The decision to lower interest rates is the right decision at the right time. Inflation data has come in good, growth is sluggish and other central banks have also started to lower rates. In light of recent developments, another rate cut was the only sensible choice. The ECB would be well advised to stay the course.

The key challenge in monetary policy is getting the timing right as monetary policy only works with a considerable time-lag. The ECB cannot only respond to data, it also has to anticipate developments. If you only ‘drive by sight’ you might miss the right moment to correct course. The ECB has been overly cautious in the past and it is good news that Lagarde does not make the same mistake twice.

The sluggish European economy needs a liquidity boost, but monetary policy is not the silver bullet. We will only get back on a path of growth, if EU governments do something about productivity growth and reforms.”

The euro slipped to a new 10-week low after the ECB announced it had cut interest rates again.

The single currency dropped to $1.0832, the lowest since 2nd August, before recovering slightly to $1.0842.

Dean Turner, chief eurozone economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, predicts the ECB will squeeze in another rate cut before the end of this year, saying:

“The ECB cut rates for the third time in this cycle today, in a move that was widely expected following a string of softer economic data.

In our view, this is unlikely to be the last cut from the ECB this year. Another cut is likely in December, and we expect this will be followed by a series of cuts at every meeting through to June next year, with the deposit rate hitting 2% before the ECB reaches for the pause button.

ECB rate cut: what the experts say

Financial experts had generally expected the European Central Bank to cut interest rates today, so there’s no shock at the decision.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, says the ECB was “compelled into action today” as the economic outlook “turns for the worse”.

Selfin explains:

The limited data flow ahead of the decision meant the ECB placed more weight on a raft of survey evidence which signalled a deteriorating economic backdrop. Domestic activity shows no sign of improvement as households remain cautious despite robust growth in household incomes. Meanwhile geopolitical tensions are clouding the outlook for Eurozone exports.

“Today’s decision reflects a growing number of Governing Council members feeling more confident about inflation returning sustainably to target in the medium term. Moreover, the ECB will likely have been attentive to the fact that the weakening growth outlook could be a contributing factor to inflation undershooting in the medium term, and will likely want to avoid a repeat of the pre-pandemic era.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, points out that this the first time in 13 years that the ECB has announced a back-to-back interest rate cut (it also lowered rates in September).

James adds:

With inflation now sitting well below the ECB’s target and economic growth still sluggish, markets had been expecting the Bank would continue on its path of rate cuts….

“Looking ahead, the ECB will be keeping an extremely close eye on the data that comes out before its December meeting. It will be pleased that inflation has finally come in lower than target, but keeping the economy afloat will be its next challenge.”

Jim Gott, head of asset surveillance at Mount Street, agrees that today’s decision was expected, given “the stagnating European economy and falling inflation”:

Germany, the continent’s economic powerhouse, is clearly struggling, while the likes of Spain and Italy have been more resilient. This shift is evident in the uptick in Commercial Real Estate deals in southern Europe, which is a complete reversal from 2012.

There remains a major economic imbalance in the Eurozone – German GDP growth is lagging behind other major European economies, whilst its debt balance is also lower – which continues to pose a challenge for the ECB. Whilst the whole Eurozone will benefit from today’s rate cut, the impact on the German economy is likely to be minimal.”

It’s notable that the ECB talks about “recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity” (see earlier post).

That’s an acknowledgement that the economic outlook has deteriorated; Germany, Europe’s largest economy, appears to be falling into recession, while the eurozone only grew by 0.2% in the April-June quarter.

ECB: Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months

The European Central Bank also predicts that inflation will pick up in the coming months, before dropping back to its 2% target next year.

It says:

Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace.

At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.

The ECB says it has cut interest rates because “incoming data show we are well on track to reach our inflation goal.”

All three key interest rates lowered

The ECB has also lowered its other key interest rates (it has three), by a quarter of one percentage point.

As well as cutting the deposit rate to 3.25%, it has also lowered its main refinancing operations rate to 3.4%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 3.65%.

The main refinancing operation rate is the cost for banks of borrowing funds from the ECB on a weekly basis.

The marginal lending facility rate is the cost of overnight credit to banks.

Updated

ECB interest rates cut

Newsflash: Eurozone interest rates have been cut for the third time this year.

The European Central Bank has lowered its benchmark deposit rate to 3.25%, from 3.5%, today.

The ECB’s governing council voted to lower borrowing costs again, after inflation fell below its 2% target last month to just 1.7% (see earlier post).

Announcing the decision, the ECB says:

The decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track. The inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Meanwhile, financing conditions remain restrictive.

The deposit rate sets the return paid to eurozone banks when they make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem.

Just 10 minutes until we hear the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision.

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank says:

It’s ECB day and everyone expects another cut and the first back-to-back of the cycle.

The ECB only publish forecasts each quarter, so they’ll need to justify a cut at this meeting without a forecast by acknowledging growth and inflation weakness since the September meeting forecasts and hint towards downgrades in December. Indeed, only this morning we found out that the September CPI reading for the Euro Area was revised down a tenth to +1.7%, so the momentum is in that direction.

But in terms of forward guidance, our economists think they’re unlikely to move away from their meeting-by-meeting data dependent approach. So you probably won’t learn too much about their subsequent plans, even with an acknowledgement of the recent data weakness.

The UK stock market has hit a one-month high this morning, with the FTSE 100 index currently up 28 points or 0.35% at 8357 points.

Pest control firm Rentokil are the top riser, up 9%, after telling the City that the integration of its US residential pest control arm, Terminix, “continues to go well”.

Rentokil says that its action plans to increase North America organic growth have strengthened since it issued a profit warning last month. That should cheer activist investor Nelson Peltz, whose Trian Partners took a seat on the board last month.

All isn’t totally rosy in the US, though. Rentokil has reported that inflation has pushed up material and consumable costs in the North America, while a “weaker termite season” has left it with more stocks in its inventory.

Gold hits another record high

The gold price has climbed to a new alltime high this morning.

Bullion hit $2,688.82 per ounce for the first time, lifted by forecasts of interest rate cuts and uncertainty ahead of next month’s US election:

Kelvin Wong, OANDA senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

“Investors are seeking safe-haven gold as a hedge amid uncertainty over the U.S. election. A Trump presidency should support gold as it might raise trade tensions and widen the budget deficit.”

Gold has gained around 30% this year, as investors have flocked to the classic safe-haven asset.

As gold doesn’t actually offer a yield, it can be favoured by lower interest rates. It is also seen as a hedge against inflation, so its recent rally may suggest fears that inflation will be more persistent than hoped.

Shares in mining giant Anglo American have jumped over 3% this morning, amid talk that rival BHP could make a new bid for the company soon.

The Financial Times has reported that BHP chief executive Mike Henry met government officials in South Africa last week, fuelling speculation that the Australian miner will resurrect its failed £39bn bid for Johannesburg-based rival Anglo American.

Henry and chief development officer Catherine Raw reportedly met South Africa government officials and the Public Investment Corporation, the state-owned asset manager.

Back in late May, BHP walked away from Anglo after failing to win the board’s support for its proposal. That triggered a City rule that means it can’t bid again for six months, a period that ends on 29 November.

Back in the City, Deliveroo has reported a rise in orders over the latest quarter, amid “healthy” growth in the UK and Ireland.

Order numbers rose by 2% to 71.1 million, while the gross transaction value (GTV) of its orders grew by 5% to £1.78bn for the three months to September.

The takeaway delivery specialist told shareholders it has made progress in “a more stable but still uncertain consumer environment”.

It said adjusted earnings for the full year are now on track to be in the “upper half” of its £110m to £130m range.

Wonk news: Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, is stepping down next summer after a 14-year stint leading the influential thinktank.

He’s off to run Queen’s College, Oxford.

Johnson, whose rapid analysis of UK budgets has been invaluable over the years, says:

“This really is a bittersweet moment. I first started at the IFS as a brand new graduate back in 1988, leaving in 1998 and returning as director in 2011.

The IFS has been an incredibly important part of my life. I love it, what it does and what stands for, and all my amazing colleagues. But after 14 years at the helm, it feels like the right time to move on and start a new chapter in my life.”

Johnson’s immediate predecessor, Robert Chote, was recently appointed as President of Trinity College Oxford, while his predecessor Andrew Dilnot has led two colleges – St Hugh’s and Nuffield.

French spirits maker Pernod Ricard has been hit by weakness in China.

Pernod Ricard, whose brands include Martell cognac, Mumm champagne and Absolut vodka, has reported an 8.5% drop in sales in the last quarter.

Sales in China fell by 26%, which the company blamed on “a challenging macroeconomic environment with weak consumer demand over the summer and into the Mid-Autumn Festival”.

Eurozone inflation lower than first thought

Newsflash: Inflation across the eurozone fell by more than initially thought last month, which may cement the chances of interest rate cuts today.

Consumer prices across the euro area rose by 1.7% in the year to September, statistics body Eurostat reports, down from 2.2% in August.

That matches inflation in the UK last month, and confirms that eurozone inflation was below the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Eurostat reports that energy prices fell by 6.1% year-on-year, while services prices rose by 3.9%, food, alcohol & tobacco by 2.4% and goods by 0.4%.

Eurozone inflation had initially been estimated at 1.8% in September, in Eurostat’s ‘flash’ reading at the start of this month.

Eurostat reports:

The lowest annual rates were registered in Ireland (0.0%), Lithuania (0.4%), Slovenia and Italy (both 0.7%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.8%), Belgium (4.3%) and Poland (4.2%).

Compared with August 2024, annual inflation fell in twenty Member States, remained stable in two and rose in five.

Government source: We aren't reviving HS2 phase 2

Westminster insiders are playing down this morning’s reports that it will reverse Rishi Sunak’s decision to only run the HS2 rail line from London to Birmingham.

Asked about reports it will revive HS2 to Crewe (see 8.45am), a government source said:

“We have always said we won’t be taking plans for HS2 phase 2 back off the shelf after the Conservatives took a wrecking ball to the project and allowed costs to spiral completely out of control.

“But we are committed to delivering better rail connectivity across the north, as set out in our manifesto.

“Transport is an essential part of the Government’s mission to rebuild Britain and grow our economy.”

Updated

Nestlé: Consumer demand has weakened in recent month

Consumer goods maker Nestlé has reported that demand has weakened, after its sale fell during the first nine months of this year.

Nestlé has cut its outlook for sales this year, and now expects organic sales to rise by 2%, down from at least 3% expected before.

Total sales in 2024 have dropped to 67.1bn Swiss francs, down from 68.8bn in the first three quarters of 2023.

The company has hiked its prices of its products – which include bottled water, coffee, pet food and ice cream – by 1.6% this year, a slowdown following “unprecedented increases in the prior two years”, it reports.

Laurent Freixe, Nestlé CEO, says:

“We delivered organic sales growth, driven by positive real internal growth. Consumer demand has weakened in recent months, and we expect the demand environment to remain soft.

Given this outlook and our further actions to reduce customer inventories in the fourth quarter, we have updated our full-year guidance, with organic sales growth expected to be around 2%, in line with the first nine months.

Freixe, who took control last month, has also announced plans to streamline Nestlé’s management structure, merging its Latin America and North America units, and putting Greater China into its Asia, Oceania and Africa businesses.

Christine Lagarde may be questioned about the proposed merger between Italy’s UniCredit and Germany’s Commerzbank at today’s press conference.

Last month, Lagarde said that such cross-border mergers were desirable, after Unicredit lifted its stake in Commerzbank.

Lagarde argued that it would show that efforts to integrate Europe’s financial markets such as the banking union, were paying off.

Berlin doesn’t agree, though – there’s been a political backlash to the idea, with chancellor Olaf Scholz calling the Italian move “an unfriendly attack”.

German officials fear that they could end up footing the bill if UniCredit were to be dragged into an Italian debt crisis, for example.

But as Simon Nixon argues here, the deal makes sense, though there is unease over the way Unicredit amassed its stake, including buying some Commerzbank shares sold by the German government.

Wealth manager St James’s Place has warned that this month’s budget is “compounding” unpredictability in the investment market.

In its latest results this morning, St James’s Place says:

The macroeconomic environment has improved since the beginning of the year, but there continues to be uncertainty in the outlook for consumers, savers and investors.

The company, which is overhauling its fee structure under pressure from regulators, also reported net inflows of £890m in the third quarter of the year.

LBC: HS2 will run from Euston to Crewe

The future of the HS2 rail line could soon be decided.

LBC are reporting that the government will soon announce that HS2 will run from London Euston to Crewe.

According to the LBC report, state-owned HS2 LTD will not oversee the extension to Crewe, and the multi-billion-pound project will be handed to a private sector consortium instead.

LBC say:

According to sources close to the project, Ministers have re-evaluated the cost-benefit of HS2 and concluded the line should continue beyond Birmingham - reversing a decision made by the then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at his party’s conference last year.

A year ago, Sunak scrapped the northern leg of HS2, meaning it would start in Birmingham, rather than Manchester.

Under that plan, the line would terminate outside central London at Old Oak Common – unless private investment would pay for it to reach Euston.

Last week, cabinet minister Lisa Nandy hinted that a cut-price “HS2-lite” would run from Birmingham to Crewe

Rail industry analysis has shown that runing the line from Crewe to Euston would make financial sense.

Euro weakest since early August

The euro has dipped to its lowest level in two and a half months, as investors anticipate a cut from the European Central Bank today.

The single currency has dropped to $1.0847 this morning, the lowest since 2nd August.

It’s been weakening through October, having hit $1.12 at the end of September.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, suggests the euro has further to fall if the ECB sounds dovish today.

The ECB has little choice but to cut. Germany’s economy is continuing to show signs of struggle. German investor confidence was weaker than expected this week, and a number of Eurozone economies have extremely low levels of inflation.

As we lead up this meeting, EUR/USD has made a fresh 2-month low and is back trading around $1.0850. There is a lot of expectation already priced into the market, however, momentum is to the downside for the euro, and a dovish tilt from the ECB could exacerbate the euro even more.

There’s a flurry of takeover drama in the City this morning.

N Brown Group, the online fashion retailer, has agreed to be taken over in a £191m deal, led by its fourth largest shareholder, Joshua Alliance.

The recommended cash acquisition is worth 40p per share, nearly a 50% premium to N Brown’s closing share price last night.

This morning, shares have jumped to 38.5p.

Joshua Alliance owns 6.6% of the company’s shares, while almost half is owned by his father, Lord David Alliance of Manchester, who formerly chaired the company [and also played a key role in the rescue of 20,000 Ethiopian Jews from Sudan].

Overall, the Alliance Family Concert Party own 53.4% of its shares, and are backing the deal.

Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group owns 20% – one of Ashley’s many interests in UK retailers.

Uber could create 'super app' through bid for Expedia

Shares in Expedia, the nearly $20bn US travel booking website, are set to rally today following reports that transport and delivery firm Uber has explored a possible bid.

Uber, the Financial Times reports, has approached advisers in recent months to examine whether such a deal would be possible and how it could be structured.

It would be Uber’s bigger acquisition yet, and give it access to new growth opportunities. However, the situation is still at an early stage, as a formal approach hasn’t yet been made to Expedia and the two sides aren’t in discussions.

A deal would help Uber transform itself into a ‘super app’, offering users a wide range of services through a single application as Chinese tech groups such as WeChat already do well.

Intriguingly, Uber’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi was previously the chief executive of Expedia.

Expedia’s shares have jumped by 7.2% in after-hours trading on Wall Street, while Uber’s shares have dropped by 2.9%.

Introduction: European Central Bank expected to cut interest rates today

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The welcome slowdown in global inflation is clearing the way for central banks to pull down interest rates, and today the spotlight falls on the European Central Bank.

The ECB is expected to make its third rate cut of the year today, putting it two cuts ahead of the Bank of England. Policymakers are under pressure to cut after eurozone inflation was estimated to fall below the ECB’s 2% target in September (we get the final reading today too).

Economists predict the ECB will cut its deposit rate by another quarter-point today, to 3.25%, as its governing council meets in Ljubljana, Slovenia, today. President Christine Lagarde is also expected to leave the door wide open for another cut in December.

With European countries such as Germany struggling this year, lower interest rates would be welcomed by business and consumers across the eurozone.

Last week, Greece’s central bank governor Yannis Stournaras piled pressure on the governing council, dclaring that “highly restrictive” interest rates could be lowered faster than previously anticipated.

Neil Hutchison, European liquidity strategies portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says it would be a surprise if the ECB don’t cut today:

“With Halloween on the horizon, we’re not expecting any scary surprises from the ECB this week. Spooked by weaker PMI business survey data, the ECB is likely to deliver a 0.25% rate cut.

Recent cooling in inflation data means they’re less burdened by potential price pressures. With minimal pushback from ECB members, markets would be surprised if a cut didn’t happen.

Beyond this meeting, the outlook is currently enveloped in a Halloween haze, with concerns over a potential growth slowdown and geopolitical tensions, amid resilient wage growth and low unemployment.”

The agenda

  • 10am BST: Eurozone inflation estimate for September (final reading)

  • 1.15pm BST: European Central Bank sets interest rates

  • 1.30pm BST: US retail sales for September

  • 1.30pm: US weekly jobless claims

  • 1.45pm BST: European Central Bank press conference

  • Tonight: Annual City Banquet at Mansion House

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