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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

JP Morgan CEO warns world may be facing most dangerous time in decades – business live

Microsoft CMA Activision FT Europe Gas Prices Sarah Cardell Brad Smith Ubisoft Activision Blizzard
The headquarters of JP Morgan Chase & Co in New York
The headquarters of JP Morgan Chase & Co in New York Photograph: Mike Segar/Reuters

Closing post

Time for a recap…

The JP Morgan boss, Jamie Dimon, has warned the world may be living through “the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades” as Israel prepares to launch an expected ground offensive on Gaza.

Dimon said:

“The war in Ukraine compounded by last week’s attacks on Israel may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relationships. This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”

Anxiety over the Middle East has pushed up gas prices this week by the most in 16 months, due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, the damage to the Finland-Estonia pipeline, and looming colder weather.

The oil price has also pushed higher today, with Brent crude up almost 4% today at over $89 per barrel.

The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has warned that the government will need to take “difficult decisions” in next month’s autumn statement after a sharp worsening of the public finances over the past six months.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has predicted that further UK interest rate decisions will be “tight”, speaking at the IMF’s annual meeting in Morocco.

High interest rates have been blamed, in part, for a 17% surge in company insolvencies in England and Wales last month.

The IMF has criticised the UK’s u-turn on its net zero policies.

Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has called for poor countries to be given $300bn (£246bn) a year from the International Monetary Fund to finance their fight against the climate crisis.

Microsoft has completed the takeover of computer games maker Activision Blizzard, after the UK competition authorities gave their approval to the rejigged deal early this morning….

…and warned other businesses not to follow Microsoft’s approach

The power company owned by the Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský has been ordered to pay £23m after the energy watchdog found that it unfairly demanded excessive payments for one of the UK’s biggest power stations, increasing customers’ energy bills.

The maker of the meat alternative Quorn dived £15.5m into the red last year amid soaring costs and a slowdown in sales at supermarkets.

Britain’s FTSE 100 share index has closed for the day, down 45 points or 0.6% at 7,599 points.

Novo Nordisk raises full-year guidance again

Novo Nordisk, the world leader in diabetes and weight loss drugs, has raised its outlook for its full-year sales and operating profit for the third time this year.

The move reflects strong demand for its weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes medication Ozempic in the United States, which lifted Novo Nordisk to become Europe’s most valuable company last month.

UK high street chain Next has announced it has signed terms to acquire clothing FatFace, for £115.2m.

Once the deal is completed, Next will hold 97% of the equity and FatFace’s management will own 3% of the business.

As we reported this week, Next has already snaffled Cath Kidston, Made.com and JoJo Maman Bébé since the Covid pandemic.

Updated

Back in Marrakech, India’s finance minister has said many emerging market countries are concerned about the impact on fuel prices due to the recent crisis in the Middle East.

Referring to the Israel-Hamas war, minister Nirmala Sitharaman said (via Reuters):

“The recent crisis in the Middle East, and concerns about fuel back again, are worries which many countries do hold and they have expressed as well.”

Indis is the chair of the G20, whose finance ministers are meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank annual meeting in Morocco.

US consumer confidence falls as inflation expectations rise

US consumer confidence has fallen this month as people grow more worried about rising inflation.

The University of Michigan’s monthly consumer morale survey has shown a drop in sentimenf this month.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment has dropped to 63.0, from 68.1 in September, with people gloomier about current economic conditions and economic expectations.

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu says people’s inflation expectations have jumped this month:

Consumer sentiment fell back about 7% this October following two consecutive months of very little change. Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%. However, long-run expected business conditions are little changed, suggesting that consumers believe the current worsening in economic conditions will not persist. Nearly all demographic groups posted setbacks in sentiment, reflecting the continued weight of high prices.

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% last month to 3.8% this month. The current reading is the highest since May 2023 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations edged up from 2.8% last month to 3.0% this month, again staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 25 of the last 27 months. Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

European gas prices on track for biggest weekly gain since June 2022

Back in the energy market, European gas prices are on track for their largest weekly gain in 16 months.

The benchmark month-ahead contract for European gas has surged by 37% so far this week, to around €52.50 per megawatt hour this afternoon, up from €38 per megawatt hour at the end of last week.

That’s the third-biggest wekly jump in the last two years, following the 50% jump in mid-June 2022, and a 121% surge in early March 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier today, European gas prices hit €56/MWh, the highest since the end of February.

As covered in the introduction (see here) supply shortage fears have pushed up the gas price, with Israel having ordered the shutdown of the Tamar platform in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea this week.

Capital Economics say:

The upside risks to oil and gas prices triggered by the conflict between Hamas and Israel will add to the Bank of England’s concerns about whether it has done enough to reduce inflation to the 2% target.

The disruption to the gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia has also alarmed the markets, with Nato pledging action if the damage was deliberate.

Plus, gas demand will rise as the weather deteriorates, with temperatures across Europe expected to fall.


Updated

Some important measures of the UK jobs market are being delayed by a week.

The Office for National Statistics has announced that its Labour Force Survey, which provides the official measures of employment and unemployment, has been rescheduled from Tuesday 17 October by a week, to the 24th.

We’ll still get the latest earnings and vacancy data on the 17th, though.

The ONS blames the delay on falling reponse rates for some of its surveys.

Back in the gaming world, Microsoft has completed its takeover of Activision Blizzard after winning permission from the UK’s competition regulator this morning (see earlier post).

In a regulatory filing in the US, the company said:

“On October 13 2023, Microsoft Corporation … completed its previously announced acquisition of Activision Blizzard.”

Another Wall Street titan has reported results today, showing that investors have been favouring cash following the rise in interest rates.

BlackRock reported that its clients pulled a net $13 billion from long-term investment funds in the last quarter, the first outflows since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.

Laurence Fink, Chairman and CEO, explained:

“For the first time in nearly two decades, clients are earning a real return in cash and can wait for more policy and market certainty before re-risking. This dynamic weighed on industry and BlackRock third quarter flows.

We have seen periods of uncertainty like this before – as recently as 2016 and 2018.

BlackRock also reported a $1.1tn increase in assets under management over the last year, lifting the total AUM to $9.1tn.

Updated

IMF criticises UK over net-zero u-turns

Rishi Sunak’s decision to delay the ban on the sale of petrol and diesel car and fossil fuel heating has been criticised by the International Monetary Fund, our economics editor Larry Elliott reports from Marrakesh.

Laura Papi, deputy director of the IMF’s European department said:

“The UK has ambitious climate change targets but some of the measures recently implemented - the ban on the internal combustion engine and fossil fuel heating - make it more difficult to reach its target.

It is important the UK stays the course and builds on its successes.”

Last month, Rishi Sunak announced a watering-down of the UK’s net zero policies, including delaying the ban on the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2030 to 2035. He also significantly weakened the plan to phase out the installation of gas boilers by 2035.

Papi also defended the IMF’s forecasting record after the chancellor Jeremy Hunt said its predictions for the UK were “more often wrong than right”.

The Treasury has been pushing back against the Fund’s downgrading of UK growth next year from 1% to 0.6%, but Papi said that its estimate was more upbeat than the Bank of England’s. In the recent past, the IMF had not been more pessimistic than other forecasters.

JP Morgan has lifted its forecast for net interest income (NII) this year, as it continues to benefit from higher interest rates.

Bloomberg has the details:

NII was $22.9 billion in the three months through Sept. 30, above analysts’ expectations. The biggest US bank said it now expects to generate $88.5 billion from the revenue source this year.

Net interest income is the amount of money banks claw in from higher borrowing costs which outpace the amount they pay out in interest on deposits (see here for more).

Jamie Dimon’s warning comes as investors prepare for further turmoil in the Middle East in the coming days.

Brent crude, the oil benchmark, has jumped by 4% today, from $86 per barrel to $89.41.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has compounded the geopolitical concerns for investors. They are already dealing with the repercussions of the Ukraine conflict and preparing for a potential escalation in the Middle East.

Amid the fog of war, traders have been buying gold and oil, in a frenzied fashion, as their primary weekend hedges, anticipating a wider sphere of influence getting drawn into the current Middle East crisis.

Shares in JP Morgan are up 1% in pre-market trading, despite Jamie Dimon’s warning about the geopolitical outlook.

Investors are noting the bank grew its profits by 35% year-on-year, helped by higher net interest margins due to the jump in borrowing costs.

Dimon: we don't know long-term consequences of QT

Jamie Dimon also points out that the unwinding of central bank bond-buying programmes is another potential risk.

He says:

Additionally, we still do not know the longer-term consequences of quantitative tightening, which reduces liquidity in the system at a time when market-making capabilities are increasingly limited by regulations.

Quantitative tightening is the process by which central banks sell some of the bond they bought, first after the financial crisis and again after the Covid-19 pandemic.

QT means there is an additional seller in the bond market, which runs the risk of pushing down prices, leading to higher bond yields (the interest rate on the debt).

Jamie Dimon: This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.

The boss of JP Morgan has warned that the world may be in the most dangerous time it has seen in decades.

Jamie Dimon fears that the Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas conflict, may have “far-reaching” impacts on commodity markets, trade, and geopolitics.

Dimon made his comments as the Wall Street bank reported net profits of $13.15bn for the third quarter of the year, up from $9.737bn a year ago – although down on the $14.5bn in Q2.

Dimon warns there is a risk that inflation remains elevated and that interest rates rise further from here.

He says:

Furthermore, the war in Ukraine compounded by last week’s attacks on Israel may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships.

This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades. While we hope for the best, we prepare the Firm for a broad range of outcomes so we can consistently deliver for clients no matter the environment.

JP Morgan’s earnings benefitted from higher interest rates, which boosted its income from loans. Loan losses remained low.

Although, the Bank says that this over-earning on both net interest income and below normal credit costs will “normalize over time”.

Updated

The UK stock market is finishing a volatile week in the red.

The FTSE 100 index is down 45 points, or 0.6%, at 7599, having jumped to a three-week high yesterday.

UK wealth manager St James’s Place are down almost 17%, following a report in the FT that it is under pressure from regulators to overhaul its fee structure to ensure it complies with the UK’s new consumer duty.

British American Tobacco has lost almost 4%, after the US health regulator blocked the sale of six flavors of BAT’s main vape brand, Vuse Alto, yesterday.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com suggests there could “some de-risking into the weekend” by investors, “given the situation in the MidEast”.

Jeremy Hunt’s cautious tone today may mean disappointment for those hoping for tax cuts in next month’s autumn statement (such as former PM Liz Truss…)

Hunt warns of difficult decisions in autumn statement

UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also in Marrakech, and he has warned that next month’s autumn budget statement will include ‘difficult decisions’.

Hunt cited the uncertain global environment, and also flagged that higher interest rates and debt service costs have eaten into the UK’s financial position.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the IMF/World Banking annual meeting in Morocco, Hunt days:

“The financial picture that I face is worse than in the Spring, and that means that I will have to take difficult decisions to make sure that in the face of what’s happening in Ukraine, in Israel, in parts of Africa, we are resilient.”

Hunt has also told Sky News to expect both good news and bad news in the autumn statement, due in November.

Hunt said:

“I think it’s a bit of both. I think the British economy compared to when I became chancellor a year ago has proved to be much more resilient than nearly every international organisation predicted and people are looking at some of the underlying strengths.”

But he said:

“In the short-term, we have challenges. We have a challenge with inflation, which is still too high. And we have the challenge of the international environment where there is still a lot of shocks.

“So I need, as chancellor, to focus on reliance in the face of those shocks. I am very much hoping for the best, but I do need to prepare for the worst, because I think we can see that the world is a very dangerous place right now.”

Hung added that UK debt interest is likely to be £20bn to £30bn higher this year than we predicted in the spring (this is because some the repayments on some bonds are linked to inflation).

He says:

“That’s a huge change.

We need to respond to that in a way that doesn’t drive us into recession, but also make sure that the British economy is resilient to shocks going forward.

More in our Politics Liveblog with Andrew Sparrow:

Updated

Bailey: things are better than a year ago

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has pointed out that economic conditions in the UK look better than they did 12 months ago, when the markets had been rocked by the mini-budget.

Speaking at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s annual meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, Andrew Bailey said he was one of the few people there who could point to things being better now.

Bailey says:

“From an economic point of view, if we look back over the last year I would say I’m probably the one person that can come in here and say things really do look better today than they did on this day last year.

“I can say that with some confidence.”

UK on track for highest insolvencies since 2009, says PwC

The UK on track for the highest number of insolvencies since 2009, analysts at PwC predict.

David Kelly, head of insolvency at PwC, points out that company failures in England and Wales fell on a monthly basis in September – but were 17% higher year-on-year.

Kelly says:

“Today’s data shows there were 1,967 corporate insolvencies in September - a 17% increase on the same month last year and down from the 2,308 insolvencies in August. While this dip is welcome, we expect the respite to be short-lived, with the UK remaining on track for the highest number of insolvencies since 2009.

“The challenging economic climate continues to impact companies across a range of sectors. Construction is being particularly hard hit, suffering more insolvencies than any other sector, while retail and hospitality and leisure continue to struggle. Indeed, restaurant closures have sadly reached the highest level in a decade.

“Although the recent pause in interest rates is welcome news for businesses needing to refinance their loans, it will still be more expensive to do so and the process is likely to be more difficult, which will have an impact on both cash flow and profits. Unfortunately, it’s therefore likely that the number of companies falling into insolvency will remain high over the coming months.”

Andrew Bailey has also told his audience in Marrakech that there are clear signs that the Bank of England is making good progress against high inflation.

But there was much more to do, he added.

“The last mile really does lean heavily on... restrictive policy,” Bailey said, adding the economic outlook appeared “very subdued”.

Britain’s potential growth rate (the pace at which the economy can grow without generating excess inflation) was “substantially less” than in the past, something that would continue to weigh on monetary policy, Bailey said.

(thanks to Reuters for the quotes)

Insolvencies rise: What the experts say

Insolvency specialists are warning that company insolvencies will continue to rise, following the increase in September (see earlier post).

Linton Bloomberg, partner at international law firm Reed Smith, says firms are operating in “a really difficult environment”, adding:

The significant challenge presented by the combination of high interest rates and reduced disposable income is likely behind the increase in the number of insolvencies compared to this time last year.

It seems pretty clear that things will get worse before they get better as there are further challenges looming large on the horizon that are yet to show themselves in the figures. The recent IMF warning of poor growth in the UK may well oblige the Bank of England to raise interest rates again.

Other ‘new clouds’ from spreading geopolitical uncertainty, meanwhile, have created the potential for further economic instability, though it should be noted it is too early to determine just how significant this will be.

Nick O’Reilly, director of restructuring and recovery at MHA, fears business insolvencies will remain high in the near term without government intervention:

“The latest insolvency statistics reveal a grim economic landscape for many businesses. Low consumer confidence, elevated interest rates and high inflation have created a very difficult operating landscape, pushing more businesses to the brink. Insolvencies will stay at an elevated level while these conditions persist.

“The unwinding of Covid-19 support schemes is prompting increased creditor recovery actions, including HMRC’s efforts to liquidate companies. Sectors such as retail, leisure, and the licensed trade are particularly hard-hit, with these industries struggling to recruit skilled individuals.

“The biggest complaints struggling businesses have are the current Business Rate Regime, export-related red tape and the level of inflation. The government could help considerably with the first two and need to do so now – businesses have been asking for help for years.

“Greater business support in the upcoming Autumn Statement will be vital to facilitate a sustainable recovery. Inflation is moving in the right direction and once it stabilises long-term interest rates should fall.”

England and Wales insolvencies rise 17% year-on-year

The number of companies falling into insolvency across England and Wales has jumped 17% year-on-year, official data just released shows.

There were 1,967 registered company insolvencies in September, which is 17% higher than the 1,688 recorded in September 2022.

It shows that firms are strugging, in the face of slow economic growth, inflationary pressures and high interest rates.

Insolvencies across England and Wales

There were 255 compulsory liquidations in September, and 1,576 creditors’ voluntary liquidations (CVLs) – where directors choose to shut a failed business. In addition there were 125 administrations and 11 company voluntary arrangements (CVAs).

The Insolvency Service says:

The increase in company insolvencies has been driven mostly by CVLs, while compulsory liquidation and administration numbers have increased from historically low numbers seen during and immediately after the pandemic, returning to close to 2019 levels.

Updated

Andrew Bailey: UK interest rate decisions will be tight

Newsflash: The governor of the Bank of England has warned that future interest rates decisions will be “tight”.

Andrew Bailey told an audience in Marrakech that there has been solid progress in the fight against inflation, but there is still work left to do (UK inflation fell to 6.7% in August, still above the BoE’s target of 2%).

Speaking at a meeting organised by the Institute of International Finance, on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank’s gathering in Morocco, Bailey also points out that the Bank’s latest decision – to leave rates on hold at 5.25% – was a tight one.

Last month, policymakers split 5-4, with a minority wanting another rate rise, despite concerns over the health of the UK economy.

But the majority favoured a pause, after 14 rate rises in a row had lifted borrowing costs to a 15-year high.

Going forwards, Bailey declares, decisions will continue to be tight.

That fits with comments from BoE chief economist Huw Pill, who said this week that rate decisions are becoming “finely balanced”.

Bailey endorses Pill’s comments, saying:

Our last meeting was such a tight one. And as my colleague Huw Pill said this week, they’re going to go on being tight ones.”

The rise in gas prices will cause some nervousness at the Bank of England, predicts Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon (channelling a famous Alex Ferguson quote).

Back in the energy market, UK gas prices have risen further this morning.

The day-ahead UK gas price has gained 6.7% to 128p per therm, up from as low as 62p earlier this month (when warmer weather meant less demand for heating, and before supply worries hit the market).

Updated

Norway, Europe’s largest gas supplier, says it is is closely monitoring the probe into the damage to the Baltic Sea pipe between Finland and Estonia.

A spokesperson for Gassco, which operates Norway’s gas pipeline network, told Reuters:

“We are now in close dialogue with the relevant security authorities and are following the situation closely to assess relevant security measures,”

CMA's Cardell: Other businesses should not copy Microsoft's approach

Sarah Cardell, the head of the Competition and Markets Authority, has defended the CMA’s decision to drop its opposition to Microsoft’s takeover of Activision.

Cardell insists the CMA was prepared to defend its initial decision in court, before Microsoft made a “major concession” and “fundamentally restructured the deal” by licensing Activision’s cloud streaming rights outside of the European Economic Area to Ubisoft.

Otherwise, Cardell tells the Today programme, the combination of Microsoft and Activision would have led to “real problems in cloud gaming”, given Microsoft’s strong position in cloud gaming through its Xbos and Windows platforms.

Cardell adds that other businesss should not emulate Microsoft’s approach, saying:

My very clear advice to businesses looking at this, is that that is not the best way to engage with the CMA.

There is nothing about this restructured deal that Microsoft couldn’t have brought forwards months ago.

That would have saved Microsoft, frankly, a lot of time and a lot of money, and led to the same outcome that we have now a lot sooner in the process.

Updated

Edward Gardner, a commodities economist at Capital Economics, explained yesterday that concerns over a wider conflict in the Middle East are pushing up gas prices:

“Gas prices have risen due to lower supply, but, arguably more importantly, risks to supply.

“Perhaps the bigger concern is that the Hamas-Israel conflict could morph into a regional conflict.”

More here, on the FT.

Updated

Microsoft has welcomed the CMA’s decision to give its (rejigged) takeover of Activision the green light.

The tech giant says it was “grateful for the CMA’s thorough review and decision”.

Vice Chair and President Brad Smith said.

“We have now crossed the final regulatory hurdle to close this acquisition, which we believe will benefit players and the gaming industry worldwide”.

Back in April, Smith had blasted the CMA’s original decision to block the deal as “bad for Britain”.

Updated

UK competition watchdog approves revised $69bn Microsoft-Activision deal

The world’s largest ever video games deal has moved close to completion this morning, as the UK competition regulator approves Microsoft’s $69bn (£54bn) acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority has announced that it will now allow the deal, after Microsoft adjusted it following the CMA’s initial decision to block it.

The tech giant will now sell Activision Blizzard’s cloud gaming rights outside Europe to Activision’s French rival Ubisoft, which addresses the CMA’s concerns that takeover would hurt competition.

The CMA says:

The new deal will stop Microsoft from locking up competition in cloud gaming as this market takes off, preserving competitive prices and services for UK cloud gaming customers. It will allow Ubisoft to offer Activision’s content under any business model, including through multigame subscription services.

It will also help to ensure that cloud gaming providers will be able to use non-Windows operating systems for Activision content, reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

Here’s the full story:

Updated

Introduction: European gas price rise on geopolitics and supply fears

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

European gas prices have climbed to their highest level since March as geopolitical risks, shortage fears, and colder weather grips the market.

The Israel-Hamas war and damage to the pipeline between Finland and Estonia are both causing disruption to the gas sector.

And with the first Arctic cold blast into Western and Central Europe forecast for this weekend, more households will be flicking on the thermostat as temperatures drop.

The benchmark month-ahead European gas price has climbed to its highest level since late February, closing at €53.29 per megawatt hour – up from €25 per megawatt hour in July.

UK gas prices have also gained this week, with the day-ahead price the highest since early April at 121p per therm, and the month-ahead contract the highest since mid-March at 133p per therm.

Gas climbed at the start of this week, as Israel suspended production at the Tamar gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean due to security fears.

The mysterious damage to the Balticconnector pipeline and parallel Estlink telecommunications cable between Estonia and Finland this week has also shaken the market, with Helsinki saying last night that the involvement of a state actor in this job cannot be ruled out.

Rising gas prices will squeeze consumers and businesses this winter, and could also undermine central bank efforts to bring inflation down to target.

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank says:

The latest moves follow several concerns about global supply over recent days, as well as forecasts showing much cooler weather in Europe over next week.

Fortunately, gas prices are still some way beneath their levels from this time last year, and European gas storage is also fuller than at this point in 2021 and 2022, but this is still a concerning trend at a time when recent CPI prints have already been returning the focus back to inflationary pressures.

European month-ahead gas prices

Europe is now facing its second winter without much of the gas it used to receive from Russia, before the Ukraine war.

Bloomberg says:

Some forecasts suggest Europe will have a relatively warm winter, which should reduce gas needs. But the energy crisis is still far from over, and a cold snap is set to hit in the coming days.

The agenda

  • 7.45am BST: French inflation report for September

  • 8.45am BST: IMF/World Bank hold plenary session of their annual meeting in Marrakech

  • 10am BST: Eurozone industrial production for August

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