Paris – As EU leaders meet in Brussels for a high-stakes summit dominated by the war in the Middle East, Thierry Breton – former European commissioner for the Internal Market and France's former economy and finance minister – spoke to RFI about the current escalation and called on Europe to act in line with its treaties.
RFI: Gas and oil prices have surged in recent hours. Markets are rattled after the latest attacks on energy sites in the Gulf, in addition to the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A barrel of Brent reached $113 on Thursday morning...
Thierry Breton: It’s clearly not moving in the right direction. That said, markets have not yet spiralled out of control. They are still betting on a relatively short war and are paying close attention to the decision by the main oil producers to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, to offset the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade – a route through which 20 percent of global oil consumption passes. In effect, we have around 20 days to cushion the harmful effects of a sudden 20 percent drop in supply.
RFI: So we have a 20-day window. Does that mean the war must remain short, otherwise we enter a different scenario?
TB: Yes. That is likely why prices are starting to climb. But there is another key factor. Until now, the United States had ensured that strikes – which are now unfortunately on both sides – would spare oil and gas infrastructure. That was clearly not the case with [Wednesday's] attack on the Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) plant in Qatar. There was an immediate retaliatory response.
RFI: Israel, according to the US, struck Iran's South Pars gas field – the world's largest. Tehran is targeting petro-monarchies in Gulf states in response. Are things getting out of control?
TB: That is precisely why the French President called overnight for a moratorium. If energy infrastructure becomes a target, we risk tipping into something else entirely. We must remain as calm as possible in a situation like this. I understand there is pressure around President Trump to avoid that path, and that discussions are under way with Israel, which we know is highly active.
We’ll see whether they stick to that line. It’s in everyone’s interest, including in the event of a regime change. Many – particularly in Iran – are hoping for regime change after 47 years, given what we’ve seen. What happened in January [when the Iranian authorities violently cracked down on anti-government protests], is still fresh in people’s minds. But the country would then need to be rebuilt. How do you do that if Iran no longer has the economic means to do so? That’s why there is every good reason to avoid a scenario in which all sides start destroying their economic infrastructure – oil and gas.
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RFI: So your message to leaders and markets is to stay calm?
TB: Yes, but also stay extremely attentive to what’s happening and use every means available to push for de-escalation.
RFI: EU leaders are meeting today at the European Council in Brussels, with Iran at the top of the agenda. What can Europe do? What should it do?
TB: Europe must stay in its lane, and make its voice heard. Europe is too often absent in too many areas. It is made up of three institutions – the European Parliament, the Commission and the Council – each led by figures whose roles are clearly defined by treaties.
RFI: To be frank, we mostly hear one voice – that of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen...
TB: The key voices today are the president of the European Council, António Costa, because he speaks for the member states. When he speaks, he speaks for all 27, and his role is to coordinate that position. The council’s High Representative [Kaja Kallas] also has a mandate to speak on their behalf.
The commission president’s role is to lead the executive, not to conduct geopolitics or international policy. As for the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, she also has a role to play, including a diplomatic role, with other parliaments. But everyone must stay in their lane – that’s crucial in such difficult times.
RFI: That doesn't seem to be the case today – some are possibly talking too much, others not enough...
TB: The treaties were well designed and are to be respected, especially in the midst of a storm.
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RFI: Should the EU take a clear position for or against the war? Does that question even make sense?
TB: No, unfortunately it doesn’t, because we were not consulted. None of us were. Now we have to deal with the consequences.
RFI: So what can Europe do?
TB: Diplomatically, Europe has an extremely important role to play. Several member states are directly affected by the impact of this war, and not just economically. Some EU countries, including France, have large numbers of nationals in the region and security agreements with countries under attack.
Take the United Arab Emirates, which has been among the most heavily targeted with missiles and drones since the start of hostilities. Europe must honour its commitments. But we are not belligerents, nor co-belligerents.
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RFI: Can Europe really act, given its internal divisions? Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said “no to war” from the outset, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, visiting the White House at the time, made no such comment, although he has since clarified his position.
TB: Again, the answer lies in the treaties. Cyprus, a member state, has been attacked. Article 42.7 is explicit: when one member is attacked, the others must come to its defence. That’s what France has done. People asked why France was sending its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier with its escort fleet, including European frigates. Quite simply we are respecting the treaties.
This is not about engaging in offensive operations, but about responding to an attack on a member state. It is, in a way, Europe’s equivalent of Article 5 [of the NATO treaty].
There are also humanitarian measures to be taken in the region. Each country must play its part, and France is doing so within the framework of both its European and national commitments.
RFI: To sum up, what are you prescribing for Europe ?
TB: A Europe that fully respects and applies its treaties – all of them, and nothing but them. In times like these, we need clarity. Everyone must do their job.
This interview was adapted from the original version in French and has been edited for clarity.
