Easy side of the draw, is it? It isn't if you make it as difficult for yourselves as England have - and it's only going to get more difficult from here.
Switzerland await England in the quarter-finals after Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane sensationally scored in the seconds just before full time and just after the beginning of extra time, rescuing Gareth Southgate's side from an early exit they could not have claimed they did not have coming to them.
With Italy already back at home after being dumped out by their neighbours, that supposedly leaves the field wide open. But Switzerland have shown they are no mugs whatsoever having gone close to beating Germany and then got the job done in such convincing fashion against Italy...and history tells us that even unfancied sides like Switzerland are very capable of going all the way at the cost of favourites like England.
Why Germany Have Been The Best Team At Euro 2024 (So Far)
Is Euro 2024 turning into Euro 2004?
When Italy and England met in the last European Championship, it was that actually that of things: the two best teams in the tournament to that point actually both made it to the final to go head-to-head. This year, that already looks impossible.
That especially came home to us when compiling our power rankings of the remaining teams in the last 16 of the tournament. Spain and Germany were the obvious top two, but the field beyond that was very much of a muchness – and those two leading candidates were drawn such that they would face one another as early as the quarter-finals.
So who else is there to rival them? Portugal had looked unconvincing against the Czech Republic and lost to Georgia but we still had no real choice but to put them third. France still haven’t got firing, yet were right behind them in fourth purely by default. We put England sixth, largely on the basis of ‘well, at least their defence hasn’t been total crap even if everything else has’.
We’d be exaggerating if we said that tournament has been something of a footballing spring for some of the unfancied contenders. Switzerland have been slowly but steadily improving for the better part of 20 years, going from group stage fodder to consistent last 16ers to now two-time Euros quarter-finalists. Austria’s potential under Ralf Rangnick had not gone unnoticed by the stats bods in the build-up to the tournament.
Nor is it unusual for a dark horse or two to rear their heads and gallop into the latter stages of the tournament: witness Denmark in 1992 and 2021, the Czech Republic in 1996 and 2004, Greece in 2004, Turkey and Russia in 2008, Wales in 2016.
What has been unusual is just how thoroughly the bigger countries have carked the bed out in Germany: England are far from alone on that front.
The last edition of the tournament was compelling from start to finish precisely because there were multiple contenders who dominated their groups and looked incredibly good doing it: Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands all took maximum points, England took seven of nine; France, Germany and Portugal had the excuse of all being drawn in the same group. The only true surprise was Spain finishing two points behind Sweden, who took seven points.
This year, only Germany and Spain made it to seven points – the fewest at a Euros since 2004, when there were only four groups rather than six. With no reprieve available for third-placed sides, Germany, Italy and Spain were all eliminated at the group stage.
We all know what happened then. Greece’s shock elimination of France in the quarter-finals guaranteed that at least one unfancied side would reach the final – the Czech Republic and Denmark were the other two sides on their side of the draw – while the two other best sides at the tournament, Portugal and England, were drawn against one another in the quarters. Greece, of course, went on to shock Europe by beating Portugal in the final.
This year, Georgia have already beaten Portugal, Austria have seen off the Dutch, England themselves have been held by Slovenia and were given a massive, massive scare by Slovakia.
In a one-off game under increasing pressure, the difference between the so-called best and the rest is not so massive after all. England found that out first hand in their humbling at Iceland’s hands in 2016, and discovered it again as they went absurdly close to crashing out again at Slovakia's hands.
It had already been spelt out for them that they had to improve in the group stage, and their victory in the last 16 on Sunday evening was as fortuitous as it was sensational. Switzerland are unlikely to be quite so forgiving if England put in a fifth straight awful performance.
We all love an underdog story...except when we're the overdog. England need to start acting like it now, or that 'easy' draw will be entirely someone else's to enjoy.
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