Voting patterns and polling data from the past year suggest the EU is moving towards a more ethnic, closed-minded and xenophobic understanding of “Europeanness” that could ultimately challenge the European project, according to a major report.
The report, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the European Cultural Foundation (ECF), identifies three key “blind spots” across the bloc and argues their intersection risks eroding or radically altering EU sentiment.
The report, shared exclusively with the Guardian, argues that the obvious “whiteness” of the EU’s politics, low engagement by young people and limited pro-Europeanism in central and eastern Europe could mould a European sentiment at odds with the bloc’s original core values.
“Mario Draghi has dominated the conversation in Brussels by focusing minds on the need to revive the bloc’s economy, which is losing its competitive edge,” said Pawel Zerka, the report’s author and a senior ECFR policy fellow.
“But if the economy is the EU’s engine, then ‘European sentiment’ should be seen as its fuel. And what is currently happening to European sentiment requires urgent attention – otherwise we risk running out of fuel, or running on dirty fuel.”
Zerka defines “European sentiment” as the sense of belonging to a common space, sharing a common future and subscribing to common values which he identifies as universalism, equality and secularism – and argues that these are being increasingly challenged.
Despite a year of wars and elections, the report – based on data analysis and research by social and political scientists around Europe, and the third of its kind – said polling consistently showed large numbers of citizens in almost every EU member state continue to trust the bloc, are optimistic about its future and feel attached to it.
It said strong European sentiment was also evidenced by a comparatively high 51% turnout in this year’s European parliament elections, and the fact that a vast majority of the 27 national governments remain pro-European in outlook and policy.
However, it said growing numbers feel “excluded”, “disillusioned” or “uninterested” in the EU, in particular people of colour and Muslims, people in central and eastern Europe and young voters who feel, respectively, that it is “too white”, “too western” or “too boomer”.
Europeans of colour have been exposed to a huge surge in xenophobic narratives since the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, the report said, with Muslims often feeling alienated by many governments’ support for Israel.
Far-right parties’ first-place finishes in the European elections in France, Italy, Belgium, Austria and Hungary, and strong showings in the Netherlands and Germany, had also fuelled a sharp increase in anti-immigration discourse.
The report cites debate in Germany about a far-right plan to deport asylum seekers and German citizens of foreign origin, the use of anti-Muslim tropes by the likes of AfD and Italy’s Lega, and the gradual mainstreaming of a “xenophobic worldview”.
It also noted the “limited diversity inside the European institutions”, pointing out that barely 3% of MEPs are from racial and ethnic minorities, against 10% in the EU population, and that many countries failed to field any candidates who were not white.
“The ‘whiteness’ of the European parliament stands out against … the European football championships, the summer Olympics or the Eurovision song contest” – despite far-right backlash against, for example, singer Aya Nakamura, Zerka wrote.
Lukewarm pro-Europeanism in central and eastern Europe was also a growing concern, the report said, with voter turnout in the European elections below 40% in seven out of the 11 countries in the region reflecting a cooled enthusiasm.
Data suggests some central and eastern Europeans are disappointed with the actual benefits of EU membership, while election results in countries such as Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Croatia showed increasing normalisation of Euroscepticism.
Similarly, although surveys consistently show younger voters to be more pro-EU and tolerant than older generations, young people showed limited interest in European elections and, when they did vote, often did so for the radical right or left.
The AfD came a close second among young German voters in this year’s European elections, while in Poland the radical right Confederation won the youth vote with about 30%, and in France, a third of the young voted for the National Rally (RN).
Zerka suggested this reflects a sense of not being represented by established political forces, which are often viewed as “boomer” parties, and warned a feeling of “voicelessness” risked young people disengaging from or even rejecting the EU.
The report, titled Welcome to Barbieland – a nod to Barbie’s discovery that her home is not the utopia she thought it was – concluded that the threat to the European project was of a drift towards an “ethnic” understanding of Europeanness in which xenophobia, already popular in many capitals, flourishes unchecked in “the language, policies and outlook of EU politics”.
Zerka said that to counter the challenge, parties must urgently diversify their voting base and membership. Countries could follow Austria, Belgium and Germany by lowering the voting age, and politicians must discuss much more with young people.
Pro-European politicians must “resist the temptation of staying quiet on … migration and diversity for short-term electoral gain”, call out xenophobia and explain to voters that certain attitudes may undermine social peace in diverse societies.
And the EU’s civic identity must be reinforced by explaining the EU as “a force for positive change”, delivering on issues such as the economy, security and climate change but also on concerns around migration, Zerka argued.
If a growing number of Europeans conclude the EU is neither representing them nor reflecting their concerns and values, EU sentiment could collapse entirely, he warned. Alternatively, it could “flourish – but in a closed, xenophobic form”.
