EU leaders are gathering in Brussels to discuss – over an informal dinner – how to distribute the European Union's top jobs, with Ursula von der Leyen seemingly on track for a second term heading the European Commission.
Far-right gains in EU-wide elections, which triggered snap polls and political upheaval in France, appear to have focused minds around the positions at the bloc's helm – negotiated among its members with an eye to geographic and political balance.
While leaders were expected to formally make their choices known at a summit from 27 to 28 June, a consensus already appears to be emerging.
At the end of the G7 summit in Italy, where French President Emmanuel Macron held talks with both German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and von der Leyen, he said: "I believe things can move forward efficiently. At least that is my wish, and that will be my frame of mind on Monday".
Scholz sent a similar message, telling Germany's ARD television network that "a political majority is coming together" and that "things could be decided fast."
Monday's meeting kicks off at 6:00 pm local time in Brussels – in von der Leyen's presence – but the EU commission chief will leave before dinner, when leaders are to tackle the matter of who will be appointed to the bloc's top jobs.
Von der Leyen's centre-right European People's Party (EPP) was the biggest winner from the EU elections that took place earlier this month, cementing the German conservative's bid for five more years helming the executive body of the world's second-largest economy.
The Parliament, the Commission, the Council, the other Council... It can be confusing to know who does what in the EU.
— European Parliament (@Europarl_EN) June 15, 2024
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Political appointments
The role of president of the European Council – which represents member states and is currently filled by Charles Michel – and the EU's "high representative" on foreign policy, currently headed by Josep Borrell, will also be decided.
The second biggest group in parliament – the Socialists and Democrats – have their sights set on the Council position, with Portugal's former prime minister Antonio Costa, seen as the frontrunner.
Costa resigned after becoming embroiled in a corruption probe – but the case has since appeared to come apart, and diplomats suggest it is unlikely to stand in his way.
The foreign policy position could go to Kaja Kallas, the 46 year old incumbent prime minister of Estonia and an outspoken Kremlin critic, a move that would send a strong signal to the EU's eastern countries.
A fourth job is in play: that of European Parliament president, decided by the legislature, not the leaders.
It is likely to return the incumbent, the EPP's Roberta Metsola, for another term.
Macron and Scholz weakened
To secure the backing of EU leaders, the 65-year-old von der Leyen needs support from a "qualified majority" of 15 out of 27 countries, covering at least 65 percent of the bloc's population.
A dozen leaders come from her EPP political grouping – but she also needs to win over Macron, from the centrist Renew Europe group, and Scholz who's with the Socialists and Democrats.
Both leaders of the Franco-German axis at the heart of the European Union emerged weakened last week after being beaten by far-right parties in the EU polls.
Most spectacularly in France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) trounced Macron's presidential majority candidates and now faces the prospect of the RN's leader – the 28-year-old TikTok-friendly Jordan Bardella – potentially becoming his prime minister.
Meanwhile Scholz is resisting calls to also call snap elections since his party scored its worst-ever EU result, behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and – in first place – the opposition CDU-CSU bloc.
Conversely, the elections strengthened the hand of Italy's prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, who diplomats suggest may want to let the dust settle in the new EU parliament – where her far-right party's grouping gained seats and may yet gain more – and negotiate accordingly.
Parliamentary hurdles
If von der Leyen ultimately received enough leaders' votes, she can set about choosing her commissioners – drawn from each of the EU member countries – with consideration for gender balance and political affiliation.
But she will have one more hurdle to pass.
The new European Parliament has to approve leaders' picks and proposed commissioners.
Most lawmakers from the EPP, which holds 190 seats in the incoming 720-seat parliament, will endorse von der Leyen – but she will need support from elsewhere to secure a majority.
That would likely come from the other mainstream political families, the S&D and Renew, or from the Greens – but von der Leyen has also been covering her bases by courting Meloni, on the hard right.
