Despite constant talk of its demise, the European Union has weathered multiple crises in recent years – but it may now be tested more than ever. Sam Sachdeva was in Brussels as EU leaders discussed the war in Ukraine and other issues facing the region
New Zealand foreign policy watchers battling an inferiority complex when it comes to our diplomatic machinery would be best advised to steer clear of a trip to Brussels.
Kiwi diplomats are used to operating at a numerical disadvantage compared to their Australia or British counterparts, but the behemoth that is the European Union puts those disparities in the shade.
The resources that go into the 27-nation grouping are demonstrated by the collection of dazzlingly modern and dauntingly large buildings that host EU institutions in Belgium’s capital city.
READ MORE: * EU-NZ deal closer to completion despite 'free trade fatigue' * Oliver Hartwich: An adverse reaction the Kremlin did not see coming
The streets surrounding the offices are usually abuzz with activity, but late last week al fresco dining was temporarily replaced with barbed wire barricades as heads of state and government gathered to hash out the big issues at a meeting of the European Council.
The sprawling agenda gave a sense of the diverse challenges being confronted by Europe, from economic strains to the region’s complex relationship with China and its ongoing problems managing a stream of asylum seekers and other migrants.
But at the top of the agenda is the war in Ukraine – an unsurprising priority given added timeliness by the fallout from the Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempt, just days earlier, to lead a rebellion against Vladimir Putin’s regime.
Prigozhin’s failed mutiny raises many questions about the political situation within Russia and the implications for the war in Ukraine; not that there are many answers yet, as an EU official tells Newsroom.
“We're still really at the beginning of understanding what actually happened and what this might mean. The first, very immediate question is what does this mean for Russia's capacity to continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine? And I don't know the answer to that, but clearly the Wagner group has been a significant part of the more effective Russian presence in eastern Ukraine.”
Then there is the matter of Prigozhin’s refuge in Belarus, the official says, and whether members of his “angry, unpredictable [and] combat-experienced…armed force” will follow him to the eastern border of the EU, with resulting security risks.
While the path ahead for the war remains uncertain, what is clear is the galvanising effect of Putin’s invasion on the EU, European Policy Centre associate director Ricardo Borges de Castro tells Newsroom.
“The EU has reacted really much more rapidly, decisively, and with a level of unity and ambition [that] was not there in the past. It's not to say that this time…there has not been resistance to some decisions, but the fact is that they have happened. Especially on the security and defence end, you've seen taboo falling after another taboo.”
“Once you start moving things up the ladder to the leaders’ decision making, it tends to be the lowest common denominator…which means that you retain unity but the level of ambition that you need to make the difficult decisions [diminishes].” – Roberto Borges de Castro, European Policy Centre
That unity continued at the council meeting, with relatively swift agreement on a pledge for “future security commitments to Ukraine” despite the militarily neutral stance of members like Malta, Ireland and Austria.
There is a sense from some who work with the EU that critics are perennially rooting for its failure, whether during the European debt crisis, following Brexit or as a result of the migration crisis.
Yet the institution has mostly held up, with bouts of shakiness never quite leading to a full-blown collapse.
The question now, says Borges de Castro, is whether the current level of unity and ambition seen in the Ukraine response can be maintained as the European Parliament looks towards elections next year and EU leaders deal with less black and white topics.
“The system more and more is pushing up decisions and difficult issues which can also be negative because of the bottlenecks…
“Once you start moving things up the ladder to the leaders’ decision making, it tends to be the lowest common denominator…which means that you retain unity but the level of ambition that you need to make the difficult decisions [diminishes].”
One example came on migration, where Hungary and Poland stymied hopes of consensus on the continent’s approach to welcoming and relocating migrants.
With both nations led by populist right-wing leaders, and similarly styled politicians emerging elsewhere in Europe, Borges de Castro fears the dispute at the council meeting may be just a taste of things to come.
“It's negative in the sense that, because we are not able to actually have an intelligent -– intelligent in the sense of constructive – [or] positive conversation about the problem, then we leave this actually to the fringes, and this is going to be a field [day] for populist parties in Europe if they can take advantage of this.”
There are other contentious areas, such as the EU’s relationship with China (which Newsroom will explore later this week) and the European Central Bank’s approach to monetary policy, while the free trade consensus that has helped smooth the way for a EU-New Zealand trade deal may be at risk of fragmentation.
The possible enlargement of the EU is also a tricky topic, with Ukraine agitating for membership and others like Georgia and Moldova eager to follow.
At a Centre for European Policy Studies event held ahead of the EU summit, Croatian prime minister Andrej Plenković – whose country was the last to join the grouping in 2013 – expressed sympathy for other nations who felt they were in “some sort of a waiting room for an incredible period of time in a very unjust manner”.
The war in Ukraine has added urgency to the debate, but whether or not the EU states can reach the consensus required to admit new members in the near future remains to be seen.
New Zealand would in many respects have a strong case for EU membership itself, were it not for the small matter of the almost 19,000 kilometres separating Wellington from Brussels.
There appears to be genuine goodwill towards New Zealand in the corridors of EU institutions, with sometimes cliched talk of “likemindedness” ringing true given similar approaches to climate change, trade and geopolitics.
With ongoing uncertainty over American leadership, the fruits of the trade deal set to be delivered over the coming years, and new collaboration in areas like the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme, the EU’s vast resources may come to seem less a source of insecurity and more a boon for New Zealand politicians and policymakers.
* Sam Sachdeva visited Brussels courtesy of a media grant from the European Union.
