A dramatic thaw in relations between Britain and the EU has raised hopes that the Horizon science deal could be the first of many breakthroughs, diplomats in Brussels have said.
They claimed the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, had a close relationship that was in stark contrast to the hostility EU officials faced from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
One Whitehall source said the deal “would never have happened under Boris Johnson”.
The UK’s return to the Horizon programme after a three-year lockout has raised hope of a series of new deals including the suspension of planned tariffs on electric cars and better cooperation on migration.
Diplomats said Sunak’s confirmation on Thursday that the UK was immediately returning to the Horizon programme was a sign of blossoming relations between the prime minister and the European Commission president.
Under the deal announced on Thursday, the UK will start paying into the fund in 2024 but in a concession from the EU, scientists will be able to apply immediately for funding in order to “accelerate” the level of participation of UK science to Horizon Europe.
Sunak described it as the “right deal” for the UK with officials saying Downing Street was mindful that September was, in practice, a cut-off point for scientists to start applying for 2024 funding.
The UK is confident it can claw back its leading position in the next one to three years. An “underperformance clause” will guarantee compensation if the UK gets 16% less than the £2bn a year it will invest in the programme. In the past the UK has matched France or Germany, considered leaders in science.
Tariffs on UK car exports to the EU and on EU motor exports to the UK are due to begin in January but industry leaders on both sides of the Channel have argued they are only being imposed because the industry cannot wean itself off Chinese components quickly enough. Under the rules cars on both sides of the Channel have to demonstrate they are 45% produced in either the UK or EU.
So far the European Commission has rejected their pleas, mindful that member states such as France do not want to be seen to be giving any concessions to the UK.
Sources say the issue will be on the agenda at a meeting between Sunak and Von der Leyen when they meet at the G20 summit in India this weekend. They will both be considering their alignment on their wider interests especially as Von der Leyen and the EU are pursuing multiple policies designed to reduce the dependence on Chinese supply chains.
“The prime minister and the president talk about strategic interests around China every time they meet,” said one source.
But insiders cautioned that the Horizon deal was not a sign that the UK would be returning to the EU through the window having left through the front door. “This is about building a very good trade and cooperation agreement, rather than the really scratchy one we had,” one source said in the wake of the Horizon deal.
It is understood relations between Sunak and Von der Leyen have blossomed since he took over from Truss and they talk to each other and text each other frequently without the need for official bilaterals. Those who have seen them operate remark on how similar they are and how they discuss “strategic interests inside the G7 tent” in combatting Russia and reducing their dependence on China for industrial products.
The UK and the EU car industries have said the tariff will be a major blow to European car industry brands including BMW, Volkswagen, Peugeot and Fiat, which believe they need about three years to build a homegrown electric battery industry. Concerns that a suspension of the tariff could be seen as a protectionist move by Brussels are never far from the narrative in Brussels but industry leaders believe Von der Leyen and key European leaders hold the key to a deal.
If it is “a short-term sugar pill of the auto industry” it will not work, said an insider, but Sunak will be pressing upon Von der Leyen that is something that affect the car, chemical and battery industries, a point that chimes with that of the German manufacturers BMW and Volkswagen.
In May EU capitals signalled their desire to reset relations with the UK, seven turbulent years on from the Brexit vote with a joint letter stating they wanted to “develop further ties” with the UK.
Other issues that remain on the table but may be trickier to find shared interests include the restoration of the Erasmus student exchange programme. The UK foreign minister Leo Docherty has previously rejected any return to the programme.
Also in the pipeline is the unlocking of a deal with Frontex, the European external border agency, which would allow both sides to share trends on migration.
