Labour’s 2024 election win came despite a collapse in support among Muslim voters – a group which traditionally has been highly loyal.
Labour’s share of the Muslim vote fell from 80% in 2019 to just over 60% in 2024. Anger over the party’s position on the conflict in Gaza led many Muslim voters to switch to independent candidates. Of the seven seats that Labour lost, five have Muslim populations of 25% or more.
Labour needs to know whether these defections represent a long-term threat that could cost future elections. That, in turn, requires an understanding of why, for most of the post-war period, the vast majority of ethnic minority voters have supported Labour.
