After contagion in the Arabian Peninsula, should the entire Horn of Africa fear a domino effect? Just as US President Donald Trump’s decision to invade Iran drew the Saudis back to Yemen, did threats over the Bab al-Mandab Strait light the fuse in Ethiopia, where last week, unresolved issues between the government and its Tigray region erupted? Could a potential return to civil war draw in regional rivals?
Ethiopia didn't need pressure over the Red Sea to ignite. The breakdown of dialogue after the 2022 Pretoria agreement was always going to be a ticking time bomb for Africa's second-most populous nation.
And in four years, alliances have shifted, with neighbouring Eritrea no longer on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's side and Addis Ababa accusing Egypt and Sudan of supporting the TPLF rebels. Sudan has its own vicious civil war, where Abiy is accused of siding with the same UAE whose arming of RSF militias is well documented.
How and who can stop a return to all-out civil war in Ethiopia? Who can prevent a regional war?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.
