The histories of Eritrea and Ethiopia have long been closely intertwined. Once part of Ethiopia, Eritrea launched an armed struggle for independence in 1961 that resulted in its secession in 1993 following a referendum. But since Eritrea’s independence, relations between the two countries have evolved through many ups and downs, which include a devastating war from 1998 to 2000, followed by two decades of mutual isolationism.
The two countries appeared to have healed their broken relations when Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki accepted the newly appointed Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s overtures for peace in 2018. Unfortunately, by early 2026, that started to feel like a distant memory with the re-emergence of the prospect of a return to war. Political science scholar Yohannes Gedamu explains the context and potential consequences.
