Category 4 Hurricane Eta is banging on the door of Nicaragua as it slowly crawls toward the coast with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and a forecast of life-threatening storm surge, mudslides and catastrophic winds, the National Hurricane Center said.
The 12th hurricane of the year's maximum sustained winds jumped from 90 mph to 150 mph in just a few hours Monday evening, and Eta has kept that wind speed through the night as it moves west-southwest at a snail pace of 4 mph, according to the NHC's 8 a.m. EST update Tuesday. The storm is 30 miles southeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
The compact storm has hurricane-force winds that extend outward to 25 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force winds reaching up to 125 miles.
After Eta makes landfall, it is expected to weaken greatly and its center of circulation disrupted over the next 24 hours as it moves over Central America. Storm models predict Eta to crawl across the Central America throughout the week before turning west and re-entering the Caribbean toward Cuba and possibly Florida. Although hurricane specialists are not certain of this outcome yet.
Storm models also show Eta making landfall in Nicaragua as a major hurricane sometime early Tuesday, the NHC said. Eta's center is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua Wednesday morning, and then move across central Honduras Thursday morning.
"Although not explicitly shown, Eta could very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline," the NHC said. "After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts with the very mountainous terrain of Central America."
Eta is moving at a turtle-like pace, making it likely to be a big danger of torrential downpours and life-threatening flash floods over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras as it approaches and eventually moves over the coast of Central America, forecasters said. Central America should begin feeling Eta's winds and rain sometime Monday afternoon.
Eta may produce between 15 to 25 inches of rain, with isolated highs of 35 inches, across central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras through Thursday, forecasters said.
Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize may see between 10 to 20 inches through Thursday as well. Five to 10 inches of rain, with a potential for 15 inches, will fall across parts of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and southern Haiti over the same period of time.
The governments of Nicaragua issued a Hurricane Warning for its northeastern coast, from its border with Honduras to Sandy Bay Sirpi. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the country's northeastern coast, from Punta Patuca to the border with Honduras, the NHC said.
The Honduran government issued a Tropical Storm Warning for its northeastern coast, from its border with Nicaragua to Punta Patuca. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the same area.
Dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal levels within the Hurricane Warning area along the coast of Nicaragua.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, due to swells produced by Eta, are expected to impact parts of the Central America coast and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico over the next few days.
Forecast models show Eta dying down to a tropical depression while over land, but then turning back into the Caribbean and heading northeast toward Cuba by the weekend.
"By Sunday it re-emerged over the northwest Caribbean, further strengthening possible. Forecast modeling, again why we have to watch it here in Florida as it keeps it in that general vicinity as we look longer term," said FOX 35 meteorologist Jayme King, noting some models have it over Cuba or even touching Florida by Tuesday. "Very close to us here in the Sunshine State."
Only three other full Atlantic seasons on record have seen more than 12 hurricanes: the 1969 season saw 12, 2005 saw 15, and 2010 saw 12, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. Klotzbach also said Eta joined Hurricane Laura as the strongest storms of this season.
(Staff writer Richard Tribou contributed to this report.)
