The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog decreased through June, and it seems that it's at the lowest level we have ever seen.
According to Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike / Twitter), an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of June 30, 2023, was roughly 49,000 units. That's some 10,000 (or 17 percent) less than about two weeks ago.
The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.
The 49,000 units correspond to about 17 days of manufacturing capacity (down by one day in a matter of roughly two weeks), according to the report.
The recent number is noticeably lower than at the end of May, not even mentioning some 400,000 units a year ago.
A decrease in the estimated global electric car order backlog indicates that the company is able to produce more cars than customers are ordering. In theory, if that happens, at some point a manufacturer has to slow down production or make the product more attractive to sell more units.
In the past, Tesla was often increasing prices (or even pausing ordering of some versions of its cars) when the backlog was high, or lowering prices when the backlog was low (January and April). Troy Teslike's chart illustrates changes in the order backlog.
We are now expecting another move from Tesla - imminent price reductions in July (or August) are on the table. There is a possibility that the company is waiting until the Q2 financial report first (July 19).
We must also understand that price reductions is not necessarily something very worrying, because the company is prioritizing volume over margins (previously it prioritized volume over the introduction of additional EV models).
For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):
- June 30, 2023: 49,000 (17 days)
- June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
- May 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
- May 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
- April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
- April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
- March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
- March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
- February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
- January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
- January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
- December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
- December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
- November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
- October: 31, 2022: 285,000
- September 30, 2022: 299,000
- August 31, 2022: 385,000
- March-July, 2022: around 470,000
- January-February, 2022: less than 400,000
In terms of particular markets, the balance between supply and demand remains marked "red" (too short) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).
In the US, specifically, the estimated order backlog decreased in about two weeks from over 18,000 to over 7,000, which represents about 11 days of supply (down by five days). That appears to be a very low level and we would expect a price reduction (or other changes), especially in this particular market.
The situations in Europe and China were relatively stable - the situation even marginally improved.
Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):
- United States: 7,382 (11 days) - decreased by 5 days
- Canada: 923 (16 days) - decreased by 5 days
- Europe: 15,617 (22 days) - increase by 2 days
- China: 14,730 (16 days) - increase by 1 day
- other: 10,525 (40 days) - decreased by 4 days
- Total: 49,177 (17 days) - decreased by 1 day
