The New York Jets went all in this offseason, knowing they have a strong roster but needed that piece behind center to really help bring everything together. They did just that by acquiring quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers while also adding Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman as new targets to go along with Garrett Wilson.
There’s excitement surrounding the Jets, but one ESPN writer isn’t so sure that the Jets really did have a great offseason.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently ranked the offseasons for each NFL team. Despite the addition of Rodgers, Barnwell placed the Jets in the bottom ten of his list, checking in at No. 23.
Barnwell does say that what went right for the Jets was upgrading to Rodgers at quarterback and making a big swing for the fences. What he doesn’t like is the price the Jets paid — 2023 pick swap, 2023 second, 2024 conditional second that likely becomes a first — to get Rodgers to New York as well as the money they will be paying him. He even makes an argument that, based on compensation (money and picks saved), the Jets maybe could have been better off with Teddy Bridgwater.
Here’s the full breakdown of how Barnwell viewed the Jets’ offseason:
What went right: They upgraded from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. I wrote all about this trade when it happened in April, but I don’t think this side of the equation is particularly complicated. The Jets were building around a quarterback who has looked hopeless for most of his career. Now, they have a future Hall of Famer who won back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021.
Upgrading at the most important position in sports is essential. It’s even more important for the Jets, who haven’t had a player rack up a single MVP vote in 50 years or won a playoff game in more than a decade. Outside of the Bears, no franchise is more starved for a great quarterback. Rodgers won’t be around for long, but with New York returning an excellent defense and a compelling group of young playmakers, you can’t fault general manager Joe Douglas & Co. for taking a big swing.
What went wrong: They’re paying a lot for that upgrade. If Rodgers gets the Jets to a Super Bowl, nobody will care what they paid. We know they needed to upgrade at quarterback, but they also just acquired a 39-year-old quarterback who just posted the league’s 26th-best QBR, wedging Rodgers firmly between Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. For that privilege, they had to do the following:
- Trade away their second-round pick in 2023 and what will likely be a first-round pick in 2024. If Rodgers doesn’t turn the conditional pick in 2024 into a first-rounder, it’ll mean he failed to play 65% of the snaps in 2023, which would be an even bigger disaster.
- Moved down two spots in the first round. It seems exceedingly likely that this deal cost the Jets left tackle Broderick Jones, who was poached by the Steelers in a move up to the 14th pick. The Jets landed exciting pass-rusher Will McDonald IV, but they sorely needed an offensive tackle, given the uncertain futures of Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton.
- Pay Rodgers more than any other quarterback in NFL history. Rodgers is expected to take home $60 million for the 2023 season. He would earn an additional $49.3 million if he comes back in 2024. In addition to him making nearly $110 million over the next two years, the Jets are incurring the cost of trading away first- and second-round picks, which are themselves worth millions of dollars. The cost of acquiring and playing him likely comes in somewhere around $130 million over the next two seasons, which is a staggering amount of money.
- Hope Rodgers doesn’t retire after 2023. The Jets are trading those picks for a player who considered retirement this offseason and might very well move on from the game after 2023. Giving up a first-rounder and a second-rounder and $60 million for one season of Rodgers would require them to win a Super Bowl to avoid making this one of the worst trades in recent memory. It’s even tough to make the deal work for anything short of a trip to the Super Bowl if Rodgers plays two years.
- Add Rodgers’ friends to come along for the ride. It’s possible the Jets wanted to hire Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator. Maybe they thought it made sense to target Allen Lazard in free agency for $11 million per season. Perhaps they really loved the veteran presence of Billy Turner and Tim Boyle. OK, I won’t even pretend that they were going to sign Randall Cobb without Rodgers in the fold.
Rodgers doesn’t like the idea that he handed the Jets a “wish list,” but it’s clear the team made a series of moves to do whatever it took to make its dream quarterback feel more comfortable. Most of those moves are marginal: Cobb has only $250,000 guaranteed and might not make the roster; Boyle is going to be the third-string quarterback; and Turner is going to be the swing tackle.
Well, Lazard is making $11 million per season over the next couple of years when the Jets might have used that money for Jakobi Meyers or JuJu Smith-Schuster, both of whom have been more productive. Hackett’s résumé away from Rodgers as an offensive coordinator or head coach has been middling to dismal, and he wasn’t the one overseeing the offense or calling plays when Rodgers thrived in Green Bay.
Yes, the Jets needed to upgrade at quarterback. Let’s say that they could have had Teddy Bridgewater, who has been perfectly acceptable for teams with great defenses in the past, with his tenures in Minnesota and New Orleans as recent examples. Bridgewater is nine years younger than Rodgers, has been beloved everywhere he has gone as a pro and is still available as an unrestricted free agent.
Would you rather have Rodgers than Bridgewater? Of course, but that’s not the question. The Jets chose between Rodgers and (somebody like) Bridgewater, first- and second-round picks, the right not to have Hackett as their offensive coordinator and about $50 million in money to spend elsewhere on their roster per season over the next two years. If you don’t like Bridgewater, plug in Derek Carr and replace that $50 million with $15 million or so to work with per season, or Jacoby Brissett and an extra $40 million in money to throw around each year. You get the idea. Nothing short of peak Rodgers will make this work for New York.
What’s left to do: Figure out the Corey Davis situation. Once a prized free agent pickup from Tennessee, Davis has fallen down the depth chart in New York. The wideout is owed an $11 million base salary in the final year of his deal, but none of that money is guaranteed. The Jets can cut him to clear out cap space, but they’re likely hoping a team will deal with an injury and send them a draft pick to acquire the 2017 No. 5 pick.
Needless to say, Barnwell isn’t exactly a fan of the trade for the Jets. Time will tell if the trade does indeed work out for the Jets.
