One of the most interesting metrics we like to follow that correlates to a college football team’s strength and talent is ESPN’s SP+ rankings (subscription required) by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The model has heaped some love on Ohio State over the last few years and we like to see where things stand from year-to-year, month to month, and week to week.
Early on before the season, the SP+ was bullish on the Buckeyes. And it makes sense because the model takes into account things like historical performance of recent years, recruiting, and returning talent. That’s always going to bode well for a program like OSU. But since the season started, Ohio State has dropped a wee bit in the SP+. But what goes into the ratings, bleeps, and bloops of the model?
According to ESPN:
“The SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a resume ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
OK. Kind of makes sense, right? Ohio State wasn’t entirely impressive against Notre Dame, looked a bit better against Arkansas State, and then blew the doors off of Toledo.
But where are the Buckeyes after that 77-point output? Here is what the newly released top 25 of the SP+ looks like, with Ohio State still very near the top.
25
Baylor Bears (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
14.1
24
Michigan State Spartans (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
14.5
23
Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
14.5
22
LSU Tigers (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
14.6
21
Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
14.8
20
Oregon Ducks (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
14.8
19
NC State Wolfpack (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
15.9
18
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2)
SP+ Overall Score
15.9
17
Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
16.4
16
Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
16.8
15
Wisconsin Badgers (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
17.2
14
Texas Longhorns (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
17.4
13
Oklahoma State (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
17.6
12
Utah Utes (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
18.0
11
Texas A&M Aggies (2-1)
SP+ Overall Score
18.2
10
Kentucky Wildcats (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
18.5
9
Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
18.8
8
Tennessee Volunteers (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
20.8
7
Clemson Tigers (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
21.4
6
Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
21.9
5
Michigan Wolverines (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
25.4
4
Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
26.1
3
Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
30.0
2
Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
32.2
1
Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)
SP+ Overall Score
33.5
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