Saying you know what will happen in the future for the NFL is a good way to end up being wrong. That said, some ideas that get floated this time of year are pretty easily dismissed when put to any kind of scrutiny. It is admittedly a burden to come up with new content every single day of the year, but the takes we are subjected to in June and July tend to border on the absurd.
The new strangest take in the NFL conversation landscape comes from two normally smart and trusted analysts. Here’s Nick Korte from Over the Cap speculating that the Seahawks could be one of the teams in the mix to sign Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in free agency next year should he hit the open market.
Thinking through which teams could go after Dak Prescott if he were to make it to free agency in 2025, and the four that stand out to me are the Steelers, Raiders, Seahawks, and (this would be spicy) Giants.
If their rookie QBs go really wrong…Colts, Titans & Panthers…maybe…
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) June 17, 2024
Not long after, Bill Barnwell at ESPN doubled down on that, including Seattle in his list of potential Prescott-curious teams if their quarterback situation turns out bad this year.
Writing about Dak this week. Giants, Seahawks, Jets, Steelers, Titans, Saints, and Raiders seem like the obvious ones if their QB situations disappoint this year. Dolphins would be in the mix if the Tua deal doesn't get done. Panthers would be a longshot if Young doesn't improve. https://t.co/5GZiFdjTba
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) June 17, 2024
We like both Barnwell and Korte, but this is one we’ll have to agree to disagree on.
For one thing, the only way the Seahawks QB situation disappoints in 2024 will be if Geno Smith suffers a major injury and Sam Howell can’t improve on what he did last year regarding ball security. Smith has been a reliable fringe-top-10 starter the last two seasons, he still moves extremely well for an athlete his age and it’s unlikely Smith will suffer a sudden regression at this stage of his career, unless his body begins to break down.
That shouldn’t be a problem for Smith, who is technically 33 years old now but whose body hasn’t taken nearly the kind of punishment a normal 33-year old NFL quarterback has by this time in their careers. Remember, from 2015 to 2022 Smith was relegated to the bench, playing behind a bunch of QBs, a list including Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Philip Rivers. Smith’s bones should have at least a few more good years of competing in the NFL and his football IQ guarantees it will be at no less than an average level compared to other starting quarterbacks around the league.
More importantly, trading for Dak Prescott would very much go against the grain for general manager John Schneider and his history of QB acquisitions. Investing a massive amount of draft capital or spending big in free agency for a quarterback just isn’t part of his team-building DNA.
To recap: Matt Flynn only signed a cheap three-year, $19.5 million deal, Russell Wilson was a third-round pick, Tarvaris Jackson and Geno Smith were both reclamation projects, Drew Lock was an afterthought in the Wilson trade and they got Sam Howell for the equivalent of a seventh-round pick. At no point have they been a true serious contender to either trade for or sign a big-name, big-money kind of QB.
That means we can forget Prescott, who will command around $60 million per year once he signs his new contract, either in Dallas or wherever he winds up going. Meanwhile, Geno Smith – who was brilliant and went toe-to-toe with Prescott in their 2023 shootout – costs Seattle less than half that amount ($25 million per year). Until his game really starts to drop off it’s going to be very difficult to find a better value at this position.
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