The Indianapolis Colts are looking to turn the page with a massive new draft class led by rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, but ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects another rough season in the win/loss column.
According to ESPN, FPI “is our rating and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s predictive ratings are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback.”
With that in mind, ESPN’s FPI rated the Colts at -5.1, which was 29th in the NFL ahead of only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5), Arizona Cardinals (-5.8) and Houston Texans (-6.1).
The projections also gave the Colts the fourth-likeliest chance (9%) to hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (11%), Cardinals via Houston (13%) and Cardinals’ original pick (18%) have higher chances of holding the top overall pick, according to the FPI projections.
The Colts also have a 60% chance to hold a top-10 selection in the next draft, according to the projections.
However (yes, there is some hope), FPI conversely has the Colts holding the third-easiest schedule based on the simulations and projections. So if the aforementioned Richardson develops at a quicker pace than expected, the Colts could wind up with a better record than FPI suggests.
Considering this is being written at the end of May, it’s impossible to know exactly how the upcoming season will go for the Colts.
As long as the team, specifically Richardson, shows progress and development throughout the campaign, there can be a positive spin to holding a top-10 pick in 2024.
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