Entering their fourth NBA seasons, the Houston Rockets have two promising prospects in Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun who are eligible for contract extensions during the preceding 2024 offseason.
But to maximize financial flexibility relative to the NBA’s salary cap, the Rockets could be incentivized to wait until 2025. If Green and Sengun are each seeking a maximum-salary deal, there isn’t much upside to signing a contract a year early, since Houston would have matching rights in restricted free agency and lower cap-hold figures.
The calculus could change, however, if either player would do a deal below the max. That could incentivize the team to strike a deal early, since it would protect them from scenarios where a strong 2024-25 season pushes that player to a more expensive contract.
Between Green and Sengun, Green could be more likely to offer a slight discount in 2024, since he has yet to consistently play at an All-Star level (which Sengun drew consideration for).
With that in mind, Bobby Marks — formerly an NBA executive, and currently a league insider and salary cap guru for ESPN — recently proposed a five-year, $160-million deal for Green. That comes in below the “max” of a $225-million contract over five years.
Here’s the case from Marks (complete video segment):
I’m not writing [Green] a five-year, $225-million extension check. Five years, $160 million, that’s fair.
More than Devin Vassell [who recently signed a five-year, $146-million extension in San Antonio], certainly fair.
Better player [Green], upside is probably higher. He’s closer to an All-Star year.
Should Green demand the outright max or something close to it, Marks advised waiting until restricted free agency in 2025.
"I'm not writing him[Jalen Green] a 5yr, 225 million dollar check. 5 years, 160$, that's fair… more than Devin Vassell, certainly fair, better player…"
-Bobby Marks via NBA on ESPNAgree?#Rockets #Liftoff pic.twitter.com/vqapn4839Y
— Chris Gorman (@GormanChristoph) April 25, 2024
Time will tell as to whether Green and the Rockets are both open to a reduced arrangement. But on paper, there is a plausible rationale that would make sense for both sides. To Green, it would be getting a lifetime’s worth of financial security a year early and minimizing any risks from an injury or subpar performance in 2024-25.
To the Rockets, the upside would be a potentially lower annual salary, relative to a scenario where Green waits until 2025 and plays at a maximum-salary level in the preceding 2024-25 campaign.
Stay tuned!
Over the final 40 games of 2023-24, Green led Houston in scoring with averages of 22.3 points (44.4% FG, 34.2% on 3-pointers), 5.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists. His true-shooting percentage was 56.0%, and the Rockets had a +2.1 differential with Green on the floor.
The Rockets (41-41) were 21-19 in those games, including a 13-2 month of March that featured an 11-game winning streak.
