ESPN released its yearly record predictions for all 30 NBA teams.
The records are projected by Kevin Pelton, who uses the following formula for this exercise:
“Nonetheless, statistical projections can be revealing. Mine are based on a combination of my SCHOENE player projections for box score stats as well as three-year, luck-adjusted RAPM from NBAshotcharts.com. I estimate games played based on those missed over the past three years then make subjective predictions for playing time.”
Unsurprisingly, the Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the lowest win totals at 26.9 wins. Pelton cites injuries to the Thunder’s two best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren as reasons for the third-lowest win total in the league. The former is dealing with an MCL sprain that’ll keep him out for the immediate future while the latter suffered a rare foot injury that’ll cost him his entire season.
“Injuries to Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have increased the odds that Oklahoma City spends another year near the bottom of the NBA standings even as the team’s young talent continues to develop. As a rookie, Holmgren would have rated as the Thunder’s second-best player after Gilgeous-Alexander.”
Only the Houston Rockets (26.7 wins) and Detroit Pistons (25.7 wins) are projected to have worse records. The Thunder finished last season with a 24-58 record.
