The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the 2023-24 season as media darlings. After finishing a win shy of a playoff berth last season, the Thunder have playoff aspirations.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s graduation to superstardom along with a tantalizing young core of Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey makes it very easy to argue OKC will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
That makes ESPN’s win projection a little surprising.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton recently published his annual stat-based wins projections for all 30 teams. The complex formula can be boiled down to the following, per Pelton:
“Mine are based on a combination of my SCHOENE player projections for box score stats as well as three-year, luck-adjusted RAPM from NBAshotcharts.com. I estimate games played based on those missed over the past three years and then make subjective predictions for playing time.
The result is an expected wins total based on average health luck. Because some teams will have better or worse fortune, but we don’t know which ones, the average totals will inevitably be closer to .500 than the actual final standings.”
Pelton forecasts the Thunder will win 39.1 games next season, which ranks 11th in the Western Conference. In his explanation, he said some regression to the mean this season could see the Thunder take a step back from their 40-42 record last year.
“With the addition of 2022 No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren to a young core that reached the play-in at 40-42 a year ago, the Thunder are a trendy pick to make the top six this season. Their projection for fewer wins is certainly surprising, but it’s worth remembering teams that improve by as much as Oklahoma City did (16 wins) often experience regression to the mean — something Bill James termed the “plexiglass principle” in baseball. On average, teams since 2000 that have improved their winning percentage by between 15 and 17 wins out of 82 have won 0.4 fewer games the following season.”
While Pelton’s argument is sound, expecting the Thunder with a top-10 player and this much young talent to finish 11th in the Western Conference would be a little surprising. If any team can buck the trend of second-season slumps by cores, OKC is well equipped to do so.
