Everyone seems to have a take on the 2023 NFL draft, and now the computers are getting involved. According to this ESPN analytical model, the likeliest pick for the New Orleans Saints at No. 29 is Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer. Here is how ESPN describes its model:
The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.
Mayer would make a lot of sense for the Saints, even if he doesn’t boast an elite Relative Athletic Score and would expect Juwan Johnson to remain ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s one of the best blocking tight ends in this draft class with experience handling a wide variety of assignments, but he’s also a serious receiving threat who posted some of college football’s best numbers on contested catches. He could help the Saints in multiple phases offensively.
ESPN’s model approximates a 48% chance of Mayer being available when the Saints are on the clock, and a 7% chance that New Orleans would actually pick him. But he isn’t their only option. Here are the other names to watch according to ESPN’s mathematicians:
DE Will McDonald IV, Iowa State
Approximate chance of being available: 82%
Approximate chance of being the pick: 6.5%
DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State
Approximate chance of being available: 83%
Approximate chance of being the pick: 5.2%
DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
Approximate chance of being available: 84%
Approximate chance of being the pick: 5.2%
DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
Approximate chance of being available: 74%
Approximate chance of being the pick: 4.8%
