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USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Phil Harrison

ESPN predicts each 2023 Ohio State football game using its FPI matchup predictor

It’s clearly not an exact science, but if you’ve followed us at all, you know we like to check in from time to time during the season to see how Ohio State football’s performance on the field affects ESPN’s matchup predictor.

And while we’ll continue to do that, there’s a point in time in which ESPN first drops the widgets in the machine during the preseason to give us a first look at what OSU’s season projects to be.

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That moment has come.

ESPN has used its Football Power Index to predict the percentage chances of teams winning each game during the 2023 season, and we are particularly interested in the schedule that’s colored scarlet and gray.

The Buckeyes will be playing 12 regular season games this fall — and we of course hope there are more — but only half of those are at home this year. OSU also has a rather tough schedule all while ushering in a new starting quarterback.

Does the ESPN computer think Ohio State will run the table? Which games are expected to be close, and what about the contest against Michigan? Can Penn State get over the hump? Here’s a look at ESPN’s game-by-game prediction on the probability of OSU winning each game in 2023, and a running record if the results hold.

Sept. 3 at Indiana

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. on Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021. Ohio State won 54-7. USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 78-12-5

Projected running record: 1-0

Sept. 9 vs. Youngstown State

Sept. 11, 2021; East Lansing, Michigan; a detailed view of Youngstown State Penguins defensive lineman Hunter Allen (93) helmet before the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 99.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 2-0

Projected running record: 2-0

Sept. 16 vs. Western Kentucky

Sept. 17, 2016; Oxford, Ohio; A view of a Western Kentucky Hilltoppers helmet at Fred Yager Stadium. Western Kentucky won 31-24. Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 99.0%
All-Time Series: No previous matchups

Projected running record: 3-0

Sept. 23 at Notre Dame

Sept. 17, 2022; South Bend, Indiana; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Audric Estime (7) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the California Bears at Notre Dame Stadium. Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 79.3%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 5-2

Projected running record: 4-0

Oct. 7 vs. Maryland

Nov. 5, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.5%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0

Projected running record: 5-0

Oct. 14 at Purdue

The Purdue mascot waves to the Stead Family Children’s Hospital at the conclusion of the first quarter against Iowa on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2019, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. USA TODAY Sports

Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.6%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 40-15-2

Projected running record: 6-0

Oct. 21 vs. Penn State

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 88.4%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 23-14

Projected running record: 7-0

Oct. 28 at Wisconsin

Dec. 27, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second half of the 2022 Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 89.1%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 62-18-5

Projected running record: 8-0

Nov. 4 at Rutgers

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.7%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0

Projected running record: 9-0

Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State

Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker watches his team warm up before the game Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Spartan Stadium. USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.8%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15

Projected running record: 10-0

Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota

Nov. 12, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck leads his team out onto the field before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Huntington Bank Stadium. Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.4%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7

Projected running record: 11-0

Nov. 25 at Michigan

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day shakes hands with Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh following the NCAA football game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 27, 2021. USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 71.4%
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6

Projected running record: 12-0

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on Twitter.

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