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USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Phil Harrison

ESPN matchup predictor updates chances of Ohio State winning three remaining games

College football odds and metrics ebb and flow with the results on the field, and it’s no different with Ohio State football and the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor we like to check in on every week.

When the ESPN sauce was originally made with some Scarlet and Gray at the beginning of the season, it was a savory one with the Buckeyes enjoying the better chance of winning against every team on the schedule. As the season wore on, there’s one team that got closer and closer and finally overtook OSU, and we’re sure you know what team that involves.

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Now, just a couple weeks ahead of playing Michigan, did things change at all? Ohio State only has games against Michigan State, Minnesota, and then the big one at the Big House, so what does ESPN think of those matchups after last week’s win at Rutgers?

Here’s how ESPN and its FPI Matchup Predictor see the percentage chances of winning each of the three remaining games on the Buckeyes schedule ahead of Week 11.

We’ll start by looking at the schedule and results so far, go through what the Matchup Predictor says about each game, then look at trends from last week to end it all.

Ohio State 2023 schedule and results so far

USA TODAY SMG
Date Opponent Score
09/02 at Indiana Win, 23-3
09/09 vs. Youngstown State Win, 35-7
09/16 vs. Western Kentucky Win, 63-10
09/23 at Notre Dame Win, 17-14
10/07 vs. Maryland Win, 37-17
10/14 at Purdue Win, 41-7
10/21 vs. Penn State Win, 20-12
10/28 at Wisconsin Win, 24-10
11/04 at Rutgers Win, 35-16

NEXT … ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor game win chances

Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State

USA TODAY SMG

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.9% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15

Projected running record: 10-0

Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.7% (up from 96.5% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7

Projected running record: 11-0

Nov. 25 at Michigan

(Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Michigan
Buckeyes Win Probability: 45.3% (down from 46.3% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6

Projected running record: 11-1

NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends

Prediction Trending Summary

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

How each remaining Ohio State game is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor

Opponent Chances of Winning Chances Last Week Trend
vs. Michigan State 97.9% 97.9%
vs. Minnesota 96.7% 96.5%
at Michigan 45.3% 46.3%

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.

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