Risk of Regional Conflict Grows Amidst Escalating Missile Strikes
Missile attacks in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq on Saturday have sparked concerns over the growing risk of a wider regional conflict. The situation intensified after the President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, promised retaliation in response to a missile strike in Damascus that killed five members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Additionally, an Iran-backed militia claimed responsibility for an attack on the Al-Assad air base in Iraq, resulting in injuries to several U.S. personnel. These developments have raised alarm bells about the potential for an expanded war in the region.
Multiple attacks have occurred on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, totaling to 140 since the start of the Israel-Gaza conflict. Retaliation from both American and Israeli forces has grown in scale in response to these attacks. While a full-scale war between the United States and Iran is not the desired outcome for either side, the current situation poses significant dangers. Both sides lack a clear understanding of each other's red lines, increasing the risk of a miscalculation or mistake leading to all-out warfare.
Efforts to avoid direct conflict between the United States and Iran are underway, but retaliation against groups such as Hezbollah and the Islamic resistance is expected. The Washington Post has reported that sustained campaigns will be launched to degrade the capabilities of such groups, as previous attempts to stop their attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have proven ineffective.
The Biden administration faces the delicate challenge of degrading these capabilities without triggering a full-fledged war. Internally, there is a debate regarding whether to attack sites within Iran, although no decision on this matter has been made thus far. The situation recalls events from a few years ago when the United States contemplated striking inside Iran following the killing of Iranian leader Qasem Soleimani. However, no such strike occurred.
It is clear to all parties involved, including Israel, Iran, the Houthis, and American troops, that the ongoing violence in Gaza is connected to the broader regional tensions. Iran has activated proxy forces to pressure the United States and Israel into reducing hostilities in Gaza. Consequently, resolving the violence in Gaza will be crucial in curbing the escalating conflict throughout the region. Without significant policy changes in Washington or Israel, it is unlikely that the cycle of retaliation and re-retaliation will subside.
The recent missile strike in Damascus, which resulted in the deaths of several IRGC leaders, can be seen as an escalation in the series of attacks between Iran and Iranian-backed groups. Each strike carries the risk of retaliatory actions and further complications in countries such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The situation underscores the urgency for diplomatic efforts, although current conditions make meaningful dialogue challenging to attain.
