The 2021/22 season isn’t even over yet and perhaps the biggest transfer of the summer is already on the verge of completion. Manchester City are close to sealing a deal to sign Erling Haaland from Borussia Dortmund.
Jurgen Klopp has already provided his view on this news. “If Erling Haaland goes there (City) that will not weaken them. Definitely not,” he said, adding: "I know in the moment that other people talk about money, but this transfer will set new levels. Let me say this!"
After City tried to sign Harry Kane last summer, the continuing story throughout this season has been that they need a centre-forward. Yet with three league games remaining they have scored 89 goals, a total only topped by Premier League teams at the end of a season eight times this century, and five of those by City themselves.
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In other words, they are already at the upper echelon of what is realistic from a goal scoring perspective, so it’s reasonable to wonder if Haaland will add any goals, or simply provide a more reliable finisher at the centre of the attack.
The latter would obviously be no bad thing for them. Eight different players have started at centre forward for City in the league this season, and while playing there they have scored a modest nine goals between them. Pep Guardiola eked 14 goals from the position last season, so the addition of Haaland should signal a return to the days of 2018/19 and before, when Sergio Aguero could be relied upon to bag over 20 without fail each year.
Will the Norwegian hit the heights immediately though? The recent attacking signings City have made have often not been as productive in their first season there as they were prior to joining. Jack Grealish is the latest example of this, having made just five direct goal contributions (with two scored and three assisted) in the 2021/22 Premier League. As he got almost three times as many for an Aston Villa side who finished 17 th two years ago, Guardiola would have expected a greater impact.
Ferran Torres scored nine times in 28 league games before leaving for Barcelona, while Riyad Mahrez started his City career with seven goals and four assists in 2018/19 after hitting double figures for both when signing off at Leicester. A little further back, Raheem Sterling made eight goal contributions in the league in 2015/16, and while he was only 20 at the time, that was six fewer than in his final campaign with Liverpool.
These examples are not limited to City either. Romelu Lukaku scored three goals in his first three league games for Chelsea this season but has only added four more since, while Cristiano Ronaldo hasn’t turned Manchester United into title challengers as was being asserted in some corners when he signed.
City are far more stable than either of those clubs, in fairness. Haaland’s impact upon City’s style of play will be interesting to observe though. Player analysis website Smarterscout suggested on Twitter that he isn’t a great passer, and that “the more he passes, the lower his ball retention,” which doesn’t chime with Guardiola’s unerring desire for his side to have complete control.
Haaland should be able to aid them in other ways though. The Cityzens are the shortest team in the Premier League on average this season, and in the Guardiola era they haven’t fielded a player in any position who is as tall as the former RB Salzburg man. They’re not suddenly going to start playing like the reincarnation of 1980s Wimbledon, of course, but he will provide a different option.
Not that everyone is convinced Haaland will seem as physical by the standards of English football. Speaking ahead of this season, Liverpool legend John Barnes expressed his doubts. “In the Premier League a physical player is nothing because we have loads of physical players and not enough technical players, so if Haaland comes to England he's not going to go and bully Brighton's centre-backs, so for that reason I think he would have a much bigger impact in La Liga,” he said.
Only time will tell if Barnes is correct, and just because other players have failed to hit the ground running upon joining City does not automatically mean that Haaland will suffer in similar fashion. But there are also enough question marks to ensure his arrival in England will not decisively end Liverpool’s hopes of winning the major trophies in 2022/23 either.
