It's looking increasingly like Nottingham Forest will part ways with manager Steve Cooper after a disastrous start to the season.
The division newbies prop up the Premier League table after suffering a 4-0 humiliation at the hands of local rivals Leicester, who leapfrogged them thanks to the win.
Pressure on Cooper has been enhanced by the fact Forest’s Greek owner, Evangelos Marinakis, bankrolled a spending spree in excess of £150million over the summer on over 20 new players. Despite this, Forest have managed to pick up just four points from a possible 24, and while scoring just six goals in the process.
Cooper’s task has not been helped by the performances of Manchester United loanee Dean Henderson in goal. The four goals he conceded against Leicester meant he’s now shipped 21 already in the campaign. Only Monday’s opposite number, Danny Ward, has conceded more.
Henderson has been playing behind one of the poorer defences in the league, meaning he’s faced more shots on his goal (49) than any other goalkeeper so far. However, underlying metrics suggest he’s still not performed at a level Forest chiefs would have hoped for, which is highlighted by looking at post-shot xG (PSxG) data.
PSxG is essentially a measurement of chance quality. It assigns a value to a shot in terms of how likely it is to lead to a goal, utilising information such as shooting location, body part and assist type.
But unlike traditional xG, it also takes into consideration shot characteristics after the ball has been struck, such as its trajectory and whether it was on target or not. All own-goals, shots off target or ones that are blocked are assigned a value of 0.
Can Dean Henderson still be a success at Manchester United one day? Have your say here...
Henderson’s PSxG so far is 18.8, yet he’s conceded 21 goals, representing an underperformance of 2.2. Across the whole of the Premier League, only Leicester’s Ward and Southampton's Gavin Bazunu have underperformed by more.
This form will be a concern for Erik ten Hag and Manchester United bosses, who are sure to have been monitoring his performances closely.
Henderson broke into Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's starting line-up in the second-half of the 2020/2021 season and was expected to take over as United's first-choice goalkeeper for the following campaign after David de Gea's well-documented woes.
However, an ill-timed injury and bout of Covid-19 presented De Gea with the opportunity to return to form and reclaim the number one spot. Consequently, Henderson spent most of last year on the bench, making just three senior appearances in total, with none of those outings coming in the Premier League.
With prospects of displacing De Gea under Ten Hag looking slim, Henderson opted to depart Old Trafford in the summer by agreeing to a season-long loan at Forest. The 25-year-old left under a cloud and has vocally criticised United since his exit for the way he was treated last season.
"The conversation I had coming out of that Euros squad was 'you're coming back here to be the number one goalkeeper'. I got Covid, come back, I should have still been the number one, but unfortunately, no one followed through with anything they told me," the England international said.
"It was frustrating because I turned down so many good loans last summer for that reason and they wouldn't let me go. So, it was frustrating. To sit there and waste 12 months, it's criminal really at my age."
Despite his outburst, Henderson will undoubtedly still harbour ambitions of one day becoming United’s number one, especially with De Gea set to enter the final year of his contract next summer. However, the above highlights that his performances will need to massively improve between now and then if he’s to have any chance of resurrecting his Old Trafford career.
