Environmental pressures need not always spark conflict – lessons from history show how crisis can be avoided

Afghan farmers plough a field while US soldiers patrol in Helmand province in 2010. ResoluteSupportMedia / Flickr, CC BY-ND

The expectation that competition for dwindling resources drives societies towards conflict has shaped much of the discourse around climate change and warfare. As resources become increasingly vulnerable to environmental fluctuations, climate change is often framed as a trigger for violence.

In one study from 2012, German-American archaeologist Karl Butzer examined the conditions leading to the collapse of ancient states. Among the primary stressors he identified were climate anxieties and food shortages.