To back-three or not to back-three, that is the question for Gareth Southgate.
As the England manager prepares for Saturday’s World Cup quarter-final against France, he is facing one of the biggest tactical decisions of his tenure and one which could define his legacy.
Southgate has used a variation of 4-3-3 so far at the finals, and the manager and his side are smashing perceptions of ‘boring, boring England’.
They are the tournament’s top scorers with 12 goals from eight different players — albeit against four opponents ranging in standard from abject to merely decent.
As Southgate has acknowledged, France and Kylian Mbappe will be their “biggest test”, and adding a defender to the side and switching to a back-three is potentially an option against the world champions.
“We’ve always got to get the balance of the team right,” Southgate said after the win over Senegal. “We’re wanting to be positive, we feel we’ve done that so far in this tournament. We’ve got energy in the team, we’ve got legs in the team, we’ve got depth in the squad. So I don’t think we should be drifting too far from what we’ve been.”
Southgate’s comments suggest he is planning to stick with a back-four on Saturday, but it is worth noting that the manager has said previously that lining-up with five defenders is not necessarily a more “negative” approach.
In comparable circumstances, the 52-year-old has form for changing his system and in his assessments of France this week he may decide that more protection is needed against a front four of Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembele and Antoine Griezmann.
At last summer’s European Championship, England used a four-man defence in the group stage and against Ukraine and Denmark in the quarter- and semi-finals respectively, but switched to wing-backs for the last-16 against Germany — matching Joachim Loew’s system — and in the agonising Final defeat by Italy.
If he did the same this weekend, Kyle Walker would surely play as the right-sided centre-half, alongside John Stones and Harry Maguire, with Kieran Trippier coming into the side at wing-back in place of a midfielder.
Mbappe wreaked havoc down the left flank in France’s win over Poland, scoring twice and making a goal for Giroud, but Walker and Trippier could effectively double up on the Paris Saint-Germain forward.
Walker is one of the few players in the world who would back himself to match Mbappe for pace, although the plan would be even more appealing if Reece James, another quick full-back, was available ahead of Trippier.
An extra man at the back would also allow Walker to sweep up behind the defence and reduce the chances of Maguire being exposed in a mismatched one-on-one against Mbappe or Dembele — a prospect that has been highlighted by the French press.
One of things England have been discussing in camp since the Senegal game is how to force Mbappe and Dembele on to the back foot and into defensive duties.
Having Trippier and Luke Shaw as wing-backs, with freedom to get forward, may be the best way to make France’s wingers go backwards. But while there are advantages to changing system, it would come at a heavy cost.
We think Jordan is giving Jude a bit more freedom to go.
Starting with five defenders would mean sacrificing a midfielder, most likely Jordan Henderson, and forcing Jude Bellingham to play a more disciplined game in a midfield two with Declan Rice.
Southgate has credited Henderson with unleashing the teenager and will be wary of effectively putting the shackles on his own most in-form player.
“We think Jordan is giving Jude a bit more freedom to go,” Southgate said. “[Bellingham] does not need to be quite as positionally disciplined. At the moment, he is still young and is still learning when to press and when not to press.”
The manager added: “I think this is the best version of Hendo we’ve had.”
Another consideration for Southgate is the versatility of Rice, who has played centre-half and can drop back to form a back-three in possession if needed. With Rice in the side, adding an extra defender is not strictly necessary.
Southgate has always wanted England to be able to adapt their approach depending on the opposition, and before the tournament switching to a back-three for a quarter-final against Mbappe’s France appeared to be an obvious move.
But while the system worked at the last World Cup and in the Euros, it does not suit the Bellingham-driven team flourishing in Qatar.
The emergence of the teenager is the big difference between now and last summer, and he thrived in a free role on Sunday, creating England’s first two goals.
Southgate adopting a back-three in an attempt to contain Mbappe may have the adverse effect of containing Bellingham, too.
Ultimately, the manager’s big decision may come down to a choice between aiming to shackle France’s biggest threat and potentially unleashing England’s own boy wonder.
