Never before will both teams have gone into a Rugby World Cup quarter-final at a lower ebb, yet, come 7pm local time on Sunday, one of England or Fiji will be World Cup semi-finalists – just a single (unlikely) win away from the big dance itself.
It’s a remarkable situation but neither side will be focusing on the potential of a slightly harrowing clash with either France or South Africa in the last four, not when a pretty painful pair of Monday debriefs will be happening.
Only twice before in World Cup history had a quarter-finalist lost their final pool game to a team not advancing in the tournament – Fiji against Italy in 1987 and France to Tonga in 2011 – yet only some late Danny Care heroics in attack and defence stopped there being a last-eight clash where both teams had done exactly this.
England just about got out of jail but Fiji endured one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history as a jubilant Portugal secured their first-ever win at the tournament with a 24-23 triumph in a madcap match.
The flying Fijian side that came agonisingly close to beating Wales in their opener and then did dispatch Australia in style for a first win over the Wallabies in 69 years are becoming an increasingly distant memory as a stodgy 17-12 victory over Georgia has now been followed by this stunning upset. Perhaps they will be more comfortable reverting to underdog status for the last-eight clash, but concerns are mounting for the Pacific Islanders.
Meanwhile, Care’s sniping try and decisive try-saving tap tackle couldn’t hide the reality that England enjoyed a supremely lucky escape in Lille, preserving their 100 per cent all-time record against Samoa with an 18-17 victory that they scarcely deserved and that left them with more questions than answers.
Danny Care got England out of jail in Lille— (Getty Images)
The 36-year-old Care neatly summed up the sub-par display: “I hope the fans believe in us that we will be better,” implored the replacement scrum half. “We have to be or we’ll find ourselves on a plane home.”
The problem is that, from a position where Steve Borthwick probably had a pretty good idea of his starting XV, there are suddenly a litany of issues.
At loosehead prop, Ellis Genge is a good ball-carrier but is becoming an increasing liability at scrum-time, leaving the thought that Joe Marler should start instead, while over at tighthead, venerable veteran Dan Cole is a steadying scrum presence but a passenger around the park, as the dynamic Kyle Sinckler sits on the bench.
Tom Curry returned from his ban but England’s back row were outshone by their Samoan counterparts, Theo McFarland, Fritz Lee and Steven Luatua, while Alex Mitchell’s hapless performance at scrum half opens the door for Care or Ben Youngs at No 9.
The eternal English obsession of playing George Ford and Owen Farrell together at 10 and 12 must also finally be abandoned after reaching Frank Lampard-Steven Gerrard levels of incompatibility. International rugby has moved on from the dual fly half model and persistence with the selection has the additional negative knock-on effects of pushing an increasingly unsuitable Manu Tuilagi out to 13 and moving solid but uninspiring Joe Marchant to a supposed position of explosiveness on the wing.
The Ford-Farrell partnership may be for the chopping block— (Getty)
It feels unlikely that Borthwick will go without his captain Farrell, so the credit that Ford has in the bank from that brilliant display in the (Farrell-less) opening win over Argentina may have expired. Whatever the decision, both men have struggled to successfully play with front-foot ball around the gain-line in this tournament, hence England’s attack often grinding to an ugly halt.
These are not issues a team should be having before a World Cup quarter-final, where a cohesive, four-year plan should be reaching its culmination. Look to France or Ireland for a demonstration of how it should be done.
Instead, as second row Maro Itoje admits, England will be having frank discussions in their Monday meeting about how they can turn things around.
“It goes without saying it wasn’t the performance we wanted,” Itoje said. “All the players will watch the game individually. We’ll probably start having these conversations between ourselves before we have the full-bore team meeting.
“It has to be honest, without a doubt. We’ve had a number of pretty awkward and tough conversations and meetings over the last three, four months as a squad. And they’re necessary if you want to move forward. This is not about being hunky-dory. We need to get to the point where if there’s a problem, if there’s something that needs to be fixed, we need to fix it.”
And despite Fiji’s own sudden struggles, memories of their first-ever win over England earlier this summer at Twickenham loom large. A semi-final may be within reach but Itoje knows England can’t be “dumb” in the last-eight clash.
“We know we have to play it properly,” he added. “It’s not about looking past them [Fiji], it’s not about looking further ahead. We have to play well against Fiji, we have to beat Fiji. If we’re not sharp, if we’re not on it, it’s a flip of a coin, we leave it to chance.
“We want to play smart rugby. We don’t want to play dumb rugby and play to their strengths, we want to play to our strengths. But it always starts with mindset. We need to be on it.”
It may be two teams in some form of disarray meeting in Marseille on Sunday but, with a prize this big, all they have to do is find a way.
