If England lose to Fiji and find themselves on a plane home next week they will never forgive themselves. That is no disrespect to Fiji but they have such an opportunity to reach a World Cup semi-final which they cannot afford to pass up.
To be in England at the moment, the noise and the buzz around the match doesn’t feel like a World Cup quarter-final but the players have done what they’ve needed to do. They’ve won all their games and dropped only two points along the way. Victory against Fiji would be validation of what they’ve done so far and a demonstration of how far they’ve come.
That’s because England were in the mire during the summer before turning things around in France. The disappointing thing is that they seemed to slip back into bad habits from the summer against Samoa but it can be so difficult to find the right emotional energy – when you’re already through – in a game that doesn’t “matter”. Rest assured that in that sense, they will be on point on Sunday, but so will Fiji after a difficult game against Portugal.
Some people may look at the selection of Marcus Smith at full-back and worry about what he can’t do but I’d prefer to focus on what he can. The ceiling of England’s attacking potential rises when Marcus is on the pitch. He’s got his own individual brilliance and he’s able to execute in the wider channels which is something England have not been able to do consistently so far. That gives them a significant string to their bow in a match in which they will have to score tries if they are going to advance.
There’s an anticipation that he will do something, whether that’s creating for himself or for others and everyone seems to mentally physically switch gear when he’s on the pitch. There are certain players like that, teammates go hunting for them and he can bring everyone around him up.
Fiji have players like that too. Levani Botia is just crazy. His work at the breakdown is imperious but his offloading game is spectacular too. Against Portugal he made an offload with four players trying to tackle him. He steps off his right, into contact and gets the ball away under that much pressure. He’s a magnet for defenders.
I think some players are afforded what I would describe as “reputational time” but in Botia’s case, it is warranted. As an opponent you have just got to put your head in the spokes. We saw how he played against Saracens when La Rochelle beat them in the Champions Cup. He made four or five turnovers that day and had a huge say in who won. If he is unleashed and allowed to influence the game on Sunday in a similar way, he’ll do it gratefully. The captain, Waisea Nayacalevu, is similarly influential. He has a calm demeanour but he can flick a switch and create a sense of rugby chaos.
My concern about England is that we are not seeing other nations tinkering with their starting lineups. Most, if not all, of the teams left in the competition knew their best teams weeks ago and it feels as if England are still trying to work out their best XV. At some point you want selection to be more settled.
I feel for George Ford because you would not hear many people disagree that he has been the form No 10 for England so far. It was pretty clear how the first game against Argentina was won, he was influential in the second game against Japan and he looked sharp when he came off the bench against Chile. He’s the ultimate team man. He’s got every right to be upset at missing out on selection for the starting XV but come game day he’ll be fully focused on doing everything he can for the team.
He misses out to Owen Farrell and there’s a real juxtaposition around England’s captain. There’s a disconnect between the emotional support – or lack of it – for him and the raw appreciation for what he does in a pure rugby sense. It’s a real shame, I consider Owen as one of the best players of a generation, domestically and internationally.
The important thing for England is that they do not try to beat Fiji at their own game. Having seen Steve Borthwick’s selection, I’m encouraged because the best chance that they have is a strong kicking game and an effective set piece. The minute they let the game break up, that’s when Fiji are at their best and most dangerous. You’ve got to be able to dictate the pace of the game against Fiji.
I look back to their victory over Australia and they absolutely battered the Wallabies off the park at the breakdown. They had so much success and if England are not painting clear pictures to the referee Mathieu Raynal, then it will be a problem for the whole 80 minutes. They’ve got some unbelievable breakdown exponents, they are direct, physical and confrontational and that part of the game is going to be a huge battle.
Fiji also need to get their lineout right and improve their goalkicking. At the moment we have not seen a lineout good enough to win knockout matches at the World Cup. If they can get those two elements of their game right, then they can use their super-strengths. They’ll have seen how Samoa performed and they’ll want to replicate that but they need that platform to play. They will have moments – they have too many good players not to – but in a World Cup knockout match the question is will they have enough of them?
