Towards the end of Gareth Southgate’s post-match press conference, deep in the harshly lit fibreglass bunker that is the Al Bayt Stadium media suite, England’s manager was asked by an Argentinian journalist for his thoughts on the prospect down the track of having to face Lionel Messi. “Well,” Southgate frowned, making a show of giving the question all due consideration. “He’s a good player.” As super-dry wee‑hours press room one‑liners go, it was pretty good.
After that Southgate just kind of shrugged and said something like, yeah, he’s a genius but we’ll worry about that if it happens. England have to play France first in the quarter-final on Saturday. Their only chance of facing Messi at Qatar 2022 would be to reach the final, less than two weeks and three possible games from now.
Progress has been tidy so far against opponents that have ranged from not very good, to quite good, to really not very good at all, to Senegal’s decent-ish. But the weather is now shifting. France await. And things are about to get real.
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Before then Southgate has a moment to feel some due satisfaction at England reaching their par level at this World Cup. However this ends now there will be no disaster, no humiliation, no shrieking and wailing from the chorus at England’s back (NB there will of course be shrieking and wailing, because there must be, but only from the most entrenched, the fringe elements, broadsheet football writers and other extremist elements).
The reality is England have now hit their level. If it is acceptable to compare this World Cup to the Premier League – and we may as well, because that seemed to be happening until a few moments ago – then England are the Tottenham Hotspur of Qatar 2022 (fourth place last year, Kane+, not won anything for decades).
Beating a depleted Senegal was like Spurs beating Wolves. Good but you kind of expected it. The USA were Brighton, spiky, difficult, an acceptable 0-0. Wales were Southampton. Iran were Norwich.
England/Spurs have done a good but unremarkable job of getting past these teams. But now Super Saturday is starting to loom. Spurs will now play Liverpool, supercharged but mildly flawed opponents; a game they aren’t expected to win, but which will still carry a skein of hope.
This is a good spot to be in; but also a tactically troubling prospect given the evidence of England’s and France’s four games apiece so far.
Southgate was also asked the more relevant question of how England are going to cope with Kylian Mbappé operating in a perfect moment of Mbappé‑ness, an issue he dodged by talking instead about how good Antoine Griezmann is. But something will surely have to change before Saturday’s game back at Al Bayt if England hope to move beyond steady and commendable progress.
First, the good news. England came into this World Cup finals tournament in bit of mess, besieged by goldfish‑memory critics, and facing a group where, somehow – it remains a mystery – every opponent was ranked in the world’s top 20.
Chuck in Sunday night’s date with the (depleted) African champions and England have played four, won three, scored 12 and conceded only twice, in the messy endgame with Iran. The midfield looks fluid and has begun to score goals. The starting front six against Senegal featured four players aged 23 and under.
Looking back further England have clean sheets in nine of their past 11 tournament games, with eight wins and three draws. Harry Kane has also scored, which will ease his hidden but tangible frustrations, those moments in the second half where Kane comes to resemble some sad, noble, cat-rescuing 1950s milkman, unthanked but doggedly dutiful. He will be settled now. And he likes these games.
On the other hand there are also some obvious flaws, weaknesses that all four opponents to date have picked at, and which France may just rip open.
Senegal looked as if they were targeting Harry Maguire in the early moments, isolating him, pressing high, finding moments where the speed of their front three could prey on his glacial turning circle.
There were also three occasions where Maguire chugged forward with the ball, a kind of steamship Beckenbauer, then gave it away. At least one should have ended in a goal for Senegal. Southgate has talked up Maguire’s ability to carry the ball forward. Perhaps Maguire now feels this is part of his locus standi for keeping a spot in the team.
Against the USA he kept launching showy artillery passes, and at one point veered out to the left wing like a broken dodgem. This feels like a player trying to fit an abstract idea of himself, one fraught with danger. Here is England’s least mobile player effectively choosing to move himself miles out of position. Ousmane Dembélé and Mbappé will feast on those spaces if Maguire tries this, offering up their own bespoke VIP lane to England’s goal.
The other problem in defence may heal itself with a few more days. Kyle Walker did not look fit against Senegal. There is an idea out there that England have a player capable of matching Mbappé’s foot speed on the same flank. Not on this evidence.
It seems likely the moments of vulnerability in all four games to date will encourage Southgate to switch to his comfort-blanket back three. This will probably become the battlefield of the upcoming days, and the stick with which to beat England if they lose, as they probably should four times out of five, whatever the formation.
The back three is still an understandable choice given the defenders Southgate has. Maguire needs cover. Walker as the right-sided centre-back and Kieran Trippier outside him is a way of not losing the game in the opening half-hour.
On the other hand even those who value the results of Southgate’s caution may feel tempted now by the success of the current midfield three, with its fine balance of strengths. It would be fascinating to see Rice-Bellingham-Henderson/Phillips tested against the world champions, if a little hair-raising if Maguire starts in a four, and seriously undermined if he drops deep in fear of France’s pace, as has happened at Manchester United.
Southgate will run these permutations, will make the call based on seeing his players up close, and on proper study of England’s opponents. It is probably time simply to trust him.
And here is another thing: England have only once in their entire World Cup history won a knockout game against a team that had previously won the tournament. That was the 1966 final. England tend to win the games they should win, then lose to better teams: Portugal, Germany, West Germany, Brazil, Uruguay (as world champions). It is a surprisingly prosaic reality for a nation that considers itself, against the facts, to be a poetically stricken underachiever.
With any real perspective France should basically be a free hit from this point. But then, in many ways it doesn’t really matter what England do now, or how they do it. We are witnessing a kind of endgame, six years into this thing, the dots being joined, the pieces aligned. We have watched this process in action, have taken our positions. Whatever your view on Southgate (despoiler of talent, or pleasant and successful manager) it is unlikely to change. Time, now, just to watch it play out.
