The world is increasingly engulfed in the flames of conflict, with civilians bearing the brunt of unprecedented casualties and displacement. These man-made conflicts are further fuelled by the rising tide of population and climate change, disproportionately impacting the Global South, of which India and South Asia are crucial parts. The United Nations Secretary General, while speaking to the G20 virtual summit, aptly remarked “Our world — particularly developing countries face a perfect storm with growing inequalities, climate chaos, conflicts and hunger”.
While India shines as a beacon of progress, tackling poverty, hunger, and inequality on its path to becoming an economic powerhouse, it remains vulnerable to internal and external security challenges which have the potential to draw the country into conflict and derail it from its path of progress. Poor relations with China are a major cause of concern which not only manifests on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) but negatively impacts internal security, relations with other neighbours like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, the Indian Ocean Region and our global diplomatic endeavours. For India to flourish in the 21st century, stable relations with China are paramount. Competing with any nation, more so China, is likely to be a wasteful distraction diverting resources from essential sectors.
India undeniably stands tall as a populous democracy with strategic advantages, but it is important to acknowledge that achieving the top rank in comprehensive national power will require sustained, peaceful development throughout this century. Embracing this reality paves the way for a foreign and domestic policy focused solely on peaceful progress. This means no permanent adversaries or allies, instead fostering improved relations with all, including China and Pakistan. It does not imply compromising national security or neglecting defensive capabilities, but rather prioritizing peaceful diplomacy.
Troubled Past
Some may argue that India has already pursued a conciliatory approach with China without any success, in the bargain losing Aksai Chin, and may point to China’s continuous expansionism. This argument however overlooks the nuanced history of India-China relations. Since 1947, the relationship has traversed several distinct phases, each marked by extreme diplomatic and political behaviour on both sides.
- Despite rich histories stretching back millennia, India and China, remained largely politically isolated from each other before independence. While religious and cultural connections existed, their political interactions were primarily indirect, often through Britain or Tibet.
- The early years following India’s independence, from 1947 to 1956, were marked by hope and optimism. As one of the first non-communist nations to recognize China, India envisioned a shared future. Unfortunately, this enthusiasm was largely one-sided. India’s understanding of China’s geopolitics and strategic intentions remained inadequate, leading to several concessions. India not only recognized China but also accepted the Tibetan annexation and relinquished its rights inherited from the British, all without securing any reciprocal benefits. This lack of foresight, coupled with the failure to raise the boundary issue and neglect of border security, laid the groundwork for future conflict.
- The 1962 War was followed by a very long period of post-war chill with strained relations for decades, marred by suspicion and border standoffs with no diplomatic relations.
- Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988 marked a turning point, initiating improved relations resulting in agreements on border management. Trade and economic cooperation grew significantly, paving the way for increased engagement followed by a period of strategic partnership and high hopes.
- Nearly two decades of incremental progress in India-China relations have been dramatically reversed by the Doklam standoff and the Galwan clash. These confrontations highlight China’s growing assertiveness, not just along the LAC but throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
- From the above, it is evident that India and China have not had a balanced and a stable relationship which two major powers should have.
Current Situation
The LAC has witnessed an unprecedented build-up of troops, equipment, and resources for the past three years. Indian and Chinese soldiers stand in a tense face-off, enduring harsh terrain and extreme weather conditions. Despite numerous corps commander-level talks, both sides remain entrenched in their positions, leading to a stalemate.
Notwithstanding the tense border situation, India and China may not go to war due to variety of reasons foremost being the burgeoning trade between the two countries which is at all-time high figure of USD 136 billion.
India thus remains suspended in a precarious “no war, no peace” limbo with China, a situation generating a double-edged sword for it. While buoyant trade creates a staggering USD 100 billion trade deficit for India, which unwittingly finances China’s escalating military presence on the LAC. Meanwhile, China systematically thwarts Indian diplomatic efforts, blocking its UN Security Council aspirations, bolstering Pakistan, and engaging in strategic manoeuvres with India’s neighbours and exerting unrelenting pressure on the LAC.
Driven into a defensive stance, India has adopted a more critical and assertive approach towards China. Public outcry, jingoistic media reports and occasional official pronouncements, reflect strong dissent. However, this approach has yielded mixed results. While it has instilled caution in China, it has made the LAC more unstable forcing India to seek new alliances, bolster its defence spending, and engage in heightened confrontations with China on the international stage. This precarious balancing act is unsustainable, leaving India perpetually insecure, vulnerable, and constrained.
Pragmatic China Policy
This current Indian policy towards China is more of a “hedging strategy,” of balancing economic engagement with military confrontation on the LAC and critical diplomatic assertiveness in international forums. This policy maintains economic leverage and insistence on national interests. However, it causes strained relations, unsustainable tension, and provides limited gains with little progress to show on the boundary dispute and trade imbalance.
Striking a balance in the policy towards China is thus important but a complex task for India, requiring careful navigation between various considerations. Here are some key elements to consider for a balanced approach:
Engage cautiously, cooperate selectively:
- For the past four years, diplomatic relations between the two countries have remained stalled, with no Chinese envoy in Delhi for the last 15 months. While the situation is undoubtedly challenging, a complete freeze in communication is unlikely to yield productive outcomes. Maintaining channels of dialogue, even amidst the complexities of the border situation, could prove crucial in navigating towards a peaceful resolution.
- The current state of Track 2 diplomacy and people-to-people contact between India and China suffers from insufficient activity, presenting a significant opportunity for improvement. Bolstered Track 2 engagement holds the potential to unlock a deeper understanding between the two nations, paving the way for solutions to complex issues and ultimately fostering improved relations. This approach, which involves non-governmental actors and civil society, can create a space for open dialogue and collaboration beyond the constraints of formal diplomacy.
- Collaborate on areas of mutual interest, such as climate change, trade, and infrastructure development, when it aligns with India’s national interests. As a case in point, India could have considered joining the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative after flagging its strategic concerns.
- While doing the above, be wary of excessive dependence on China for trade and investment, diversifying partners and promoting domestic production. The trade deficit between the two countries has to be narrowed.
Strengthen its own position:
- Invest in India’s military modernization and infrastructure development, focusing on self-reliance and strategic autonomy.
- Deepen partnerships with other democratic powers, like the QUAD and ASEAN, to build a multipolar order in the Indo-Pacific region. However, do not place over reliance on these alliances. Even the staunchest allies are understandably skeptical over whether the United States can and will maintain its alliance commitments.
- Seek peaceful resolution of border disputes:
- The Special Representatives on India-China boundary issue have not met for last four years. This apex level mechanism along with other ground level procedures must be invigorated to explore long-term resolution while keeping the LAC peaceful in the meantime.
- Maintain open channels of communication with China at various levels, both political and through military hotlines, to prevent misunderstandings and manage crises.
- Make efforts to convert the LAC into a demarcated Line of Control (LC) which could be monitored jointly.
Maintain strategic autonomy:
- Avoid getting embroiled in US-China rivalry, balancing interests and maintaining independent relations with both.
- Uphold the principles of non-alignment and avoid formal military alliances, but actively engage in strategic partnerships on specific issues.
Public communication:
- Balance public discourse between expressing legitimate concerns and avoiding unnecessary alarmism or hostility. There is no need for India to appear as mouthpiece of Chinese opposition.
- Foster informed public debate on the complexities of India-China relations, avoiding nationalistic rhetoric.
