Scottish households have been issued a stark warning as energy bills are forecasted to jump again.
The average yearly energy bill could climb to nearly £4,400 a year from January, according to analysis from energy consultancy Auxilione, as gas prices continue to push upwards.
Previously, the experts warned that the price cap could reach £3,687 in October – close to double today’s already record levels, up from £1,971. But after Ofgem's latest update, they forecast bills could hit £4,400 in January, rather than the £3,994, previously predicted.
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In what is thought to be the worst outlook yet for the 24 million households whose bills are governed by the price cap, the experts also saw further rises in 2023.
It was announced this week that Ofgem will be changing the price cap every three months, rather than every six in a bid to stop any nasty surprises on people's bills. In wake of that news, the energy consultancy has warned the cap could rise even higher in January to a staggering £4,400 - though they point out the predictions comes with caveats.
Although forecasts so far ahead are more likely to be unreliable, Auxilione suggest the price could balloon further to £4,700 in April. If true, it would mean a price cap more than four times higher than before the gas price crisis started last year, according to PA reporters.
Prices are not expected to fall until July, when the price cap might dip to £4,000 – but this is still double current levels, the energy consultancy adds.
Auxilione said the changes – which added around £400 to the January price cap compared to Friday’s forecast – were largely due to new Ofgem rules that were announced earlier this week.
It said: “On Thursday Ofgem released their final models including some changes to allowances within the cap, such as recovering some of these over a shorter period of time.
“Having now analysed these has left us wondering if these are showing the correct outputs. Over the last 24 hours we have been comparing our values with other analysts who also seem to be in the same position as us – in disbelief at the values.”
An Ofgem spokesman said: “The wholesale market continues to move extremely quickly so no forecast for next year is at all robust at this stage and will therefore have very limited value, especially for consumers who must always be the main priority.
“We cannot stop others from making predictions but we would ask that extreme caution is applied to any predictions for the price cap in January or beyond.”
Conor Forbes, director of policy with Advice Direct Scotland, said: “This latest warning will alarm many households across Scotland.
“We know that people are already struggling with recent rises, but there is a very real likelihood of huge increases this winter.
“Free support and advice is available for anyone in Scotland through energyadvice.scot, and our advisers can explore eligibility for grants such as the Scottish Home Heating Support Fund or ensure that households are claiming all the benefits they are entitled to.”
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