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ABC News
ABC News
National
Europe correspondent Nick Dole in Paris

Emmanuel Macron may be the de facto leader of Europe, but could he lose the French presidency to rival Marine Le Pen?

French leader Emmanuel Macron is in a tight presidential election race. (Instagram: Soazig de la Moissonnière)

To get a glimpse of how world leaders wish to be viewed, their official photographs are a good place to start.

For several months, French President Emmanuel Macron has been presenting the image of a hardworking statesman who is leading Europe's efforts to stop Russia's war in Ukraine.

Supposedly candid photos of an unshaven President wearing a hoodie while receiving security briefings are among dozens uploaded to Instagram in recent months. Others depict a serious-looking Mr Macron hunched over the phone or sifting through official documents.

For a man who has championed further European integration, his status as the continent's de facto leader, cemented by the crisis in Ukraine, certainly aligns with his ambitions.

Mr Macron has described the election not just as a battle to shape the future of France, but also of Europe. (Instagram: Soazig de la Moissonnière)

But his focus on the war has had one drawback: It delayed his entry to the French election campaign, which is something he now says he regrets.

His far-right opponent, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, has been gaining traction on domestic issues such as the cost of living, arguing the President is distracted and out of touch.

So, in the lead-up to Sunday's decisive second-round presidential vote, Mr Macron's media machine has switched gears, flooding social media with images portraying a dedicated campaigner meeting ordinary people and fighting for every vote, despite his lead in the polls.

Mr Macron has been trying to convince voters he understands their needs at home. (Instagram: Soazig de la Moissonnière)

"She [Ms Le Pen] is going to insist that he's the candidate of the elites," Tara Varma, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the ABC.

"He worked in a bank, he became President at 39.

"They are very different [people]."

Unless Mr Macron can convince voters he understands their needs at home, Ms Le Pen may become president, bringing major consequences for the war in Ukraine and sending shock waves through the European Union.

It's an election Russian President Vladimir Putin will be watching closely.

Le Pen's views on Putin in the spotlight

While Marine Le Pen has tried to distance herself from Mr Putin since the invasion of Ukraine, she has previously spoken of her admiration for the Russian President.

Marine Le Pen has rebranded herself since the last election campaign as more pragmatic and less extreme. (Reuters: Albert Gea)

During her 2017 election campaign, which was partly funded by a Russian bank loan, she backed his annexation of Crimea, declaring it had always been Russian and Mr Putin had every right to take control of it.

After meeting Mr Putin during that campaign, she also called for the EU to scrap the associated sanctions imposed on Russia.

Earlier this year, she declared Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine. And she has since refused to label Mr Putin a "war criminal", saying doing so would make a peace deal harder to achieve.

She has also warned against sending more weapons to Ukraine, saying it could draw France into the conflict.

If she wins, she vows she will withdraw France from NATO's integrated military command structure and seek to improve ties with Russia.

Citing concerns over the cost of living, Ms Le Pen says she opposes sanctions on Russian oil and gas.

Marine Le Pen has vowed to restore ties with Russia and take France out of NATO's strategic command. (Reuters: Gonzalo Fuentes, file)

Ms Varma said the far-right candidate was betting people would grow tired of price hikes resulting from standing up to Moscow.

"Little by little, they will still support the Ukrainian people, but they won't want to bear the economic consequences," she said.

"And I think she's anticipated that."

Ms Varma said Mr Putin would take comfort from any softening in France's position.

"France has the biggest diplomatic network in Europe and has the nuclear deterrent," she said.

"[If Ms Le Pen wins] then European unity and trans-Atlantic unity are breached completely."

Macron to be judged on his vision for Europe

Macron became France's youngest-ever president in 2017.

Mr Macron says Sunday's vote will be a "referendum on Europe".

He has argued strongly for more "European sovereignty" and for the EU to build its own joint defence force.

He says the war in Ukraine has only strengthened the case for a stronger union.

However, French voters the ABC spoke to in Paris appeared divided on the President's agenda.

Fishmonger Dominique Dittiere said security was one of the most important issues for him and he believed Mr Macron would win a second term.

Fishmonger Dominique Dittiere believes Emmanuel Macron will win a second term. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)

Jean-Pierre Fourcade and his wife, Odile, were also supportive of Mr Macron when the ABC spoke to them in the street.

It soon became apparent the 92-year-old Mr Fourcade was not your average voter, having served as finance minister under Jacques Chirac when he was prime minister in the 1970s.

Jean-Pierre Fourcade and his wife Odile both support Emmanuel Macron. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)

"[Mr Macron] is a man of very high capacity when it comes to international policy, as well as on the national level," Mr Fourcard said

"Not everything he's done has been perfect, but he's the best candidate and we'll vote for him."

However, another voter, 42-year-old Feryal, said the price of food and petrol should be front of mind for Mr Macron.

"Basically, I've stopped listening to the President," she told the ABC.

Ms Le Pen, who is a long-time Eurosceptic, has ditched her previous proposals to leave the EU and the single currency, but she is still promising radical change from within.

She vows that, if elected, she will give French citizens priority for employment, welfare and housing, and give French laws primacy over European ones.

She is also promising to slash France's contributions to the EU budget and reintroduce border checks.

Mr Macron has accused his opponent of talking "rubbish" about the European Union and of secretly plotting "Frexit" – France's departure from the 27-nation bloc.

Emmanuel Macron has denied claims he wants to take France out of the EU. (Instagram: Soazig de la Moissonnière)

"She wants to leave but she dare not say so, and that's never good," Mr Macron told a rally last week.

The President has labelled Ms Le Pen's ideas "racist" and warned she will seek to align herself with Viktor Orban, the leader of Hungary, where he says human rights are being "progressively reduced".

Le Pen has softened her image, but she's had help

This is Marine Le Pen's third presidential campaign and it shows.

She has toned down the far-right, anti-immigration rhetoric that defined the former National Front party, which she took over from her father and pushed to rename in 2018.

Marine Le Pen plans to ban Muslim women from wearing headscarfs in public in France. (Reuters: Christian Hartmann)

This time, she is campaigning on more mainstream issues, promising to ease cost-of-living pressures by cutting fuel taxes and even sparing those aged under 30 from paying income tax.

However, she still plans to ban Muslim women from wearing headscarves in public and to deport long-term unemployed migrants.

But her views may seem relatively moderate compared with those of another far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, who was knocked out in the first round of voting on April 10.

Right-wing firebrand Eric Zemmour has called on his supporters to back Marine Le Pen. (Reuters: Christian Hartmann)

He was convicted of inciting racial hatred in 2020 when he called the children of migrants "rapists".

He campaigned on a range of anti-immigration policies, including an idea to ban parents from calling their children names like Mohammed.

"He was such an extreme, radical figure, he made her look normal in a way," Ms Varma said.

Feryal, whose family is from Algeria, was critical of Ms Le Pen's views on immigration.

"They are dangerous, they are dangerous for society," she told the ABC.

Feryal, whose family is from Algeria, says Mr Macron needs to return his focus to France. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)

"I'm quite uncomfortable with the divisions within France over the question of immigration."

She said she was more drawn to left-wing candidates who were knocked out in round one of voting.

However, Mr Macron cannot necessarily count on left-wing voters to back him in the final round.

Both candidates courting left-wing voters

Of the 12 candidates in round one, Mr Macron received 28 per cent of votes, followed by Ms Le Pen with 23 per cent.

Mr Macron's staff have been working to portray him as a man of the people. (Instagram: Soazig de la Moissonnière)

Close behind on 22 per cent was veteran left-wing campaigner Jean-Luc Melenchon, who promised to raise low wages and combat climate change.

After dropping out, he told his supporters they should not give a "single vote" to Ms Le Pen, who has vowed to ban new wind farms and dismantle existing ones.

However, he did not explicitly endorse Mr Macron either.

The President has also vowed to push ahead with a controversial plan to raise the pension age from 62 to 65.

Unemployment hit a 13-year low of 7.4 per cent in February and France's economy has bounced back from its COVID-induced slump.

But the President still faces a backlash over economic policies which were seen to favour big business at the expense of workers.

"[Mr Macron] really needs to target the left-leaning people who feel very disappointed by him," Ms Varma said.

One left-wing voter, Bruno, told the ABC that Mr Macron was "all-capitalism" and that he would support the far-right candidate in the second round.

Left-wing voter Bruno says he will vote for Marine Le Pen to prevent Emmanuel Macron from retaining the presidency. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)

As a long-time trade unionist and environmentalist, he said voting for Ms Le Pen felt "weird", but he could not support the President.

"I have been on the left for a very long time, but in order to stop Macron I am willing to vote for Le Pen," he said.

"Bizarre, isn't it?"

French voters will head to the polls again on Sunday for the deciding round of the presidential vote. (ABC News: Andrew Greaves)
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