Tesla and BYD are the world's largest electric-vehicle makers.
In 2022, China EV and battery giant BYD's vehicle sales raced ahead of Tesla's and are now well more than twice as high. For all-battery electric vehicles (BEVs), BYD seized the crown in Q4 2023. Tesla has regained that title, though BYD looks set to lead again in Q4 2024.
Tesla reported a surprise profit gain in Q3, fueled by rebounding margins. Elon Musk was bullish about 2025 growth as well. BYD reported solid Q3 earnings, with revenue surpassing Tesla for the first time. October sales surged.
After skyrocketing following results, Tesla stock has fallen back below the buy point and flashed a buy signal. BYD stock is in a buy zone.
Tesla Vs. BYD Sales
Tesla delivered 462,890 EVs in Q3, up from Q2's 433,956 and Q3 2023's 435,059. That was in line with various analyst estimates but below some whisper numbers. Also, Tesla relied on China sales, which tend to be lower margin.
Tesla also deployed 6.9 gigawatt hours of energy storage products, down from Q2's record 9.4 GWh.
Meanwhile, BYD sold a record 1,134,892 vehicles in Q3, up 37.3% vs. a year earlier and 7.6% vs. Q2's 986,720. Plug-in hybrid sales soared 75.6% vs. a year before to 685,830. BEV passenger sales came in at 443,426, up 2.7% vs. a year earlier and 4.1% vs. Q2.
Tesla, which only makes BEVs, remained No. 1 in that category in Q3.
In October, BYD sold 502,657 EVs, up 66.5% vs. a year earlier and 19.8% from September's prior record of 419,166. BYD has been production constrained, but it made a record 536,134 vehicles in the month.
Out of the 500,526 passenger vehicles, 310,912 were PHEVs, which have boomed thanks to a longer-range, next-generation hybrid system. BEV sales rose to 189,614. Sales of commercial vehicles, including buses, delivery trucks and more, came in at 2,131, up 189% vs. a year earlier and close to record levels.
So far in 2024, BYD has sold 3,250,532 vehicles. It will pass the official full-year target of 3.6 million EVs in November and should end the year well above the unofficial goal of four million.
BYD Eyes BEV Crown
On the Q3 earnings call, Musk predicted 2024 deliveries would top last year's total of 1,808 million. That would require record Q4 deliveries of more than 514,925.
BYD's sales are likely to keep rising in the typical year-end push. But simply maintaining October's levels in November-December would mean BYD's BEV sales would total 568,842 in Q4.
In all likelihood, Tesla would regain the title in Q1 2025, with Lunar New Year holidays contributing to a sluggish period for China auto sales. But strong orders and overseas operations suggest BYD won't suffer nearly as big of a drop off in the upcoming Q1 as it did to start 2024.
Tesla, BYD Price Cuts
Tesla has slashed prices worldwide starting in late 2022. The EV giant has had to keep cutting prices or boost other incentives to prop up sales, slashing once-mighty profit margins and earnings.
In late October, Tesla has increased Model 3 and Model Y inventory discounts in the U.S. and announced 0% financing for those EVs.
Earlier in 2024, BYD slashed prices on most of its largely refreshed models, helping to revive sales, but since then has largely eschewed discounts.
Tesla Models
Tesla produces the Model 3, the Model Y, Model X and Model S, as well as the Semi and Cybertruck. The Model Y crossover accounts for the majority of sales.
A Model 3 revamp didn't provide much of a sales boost in China and Europe and has been lackluster in the U.S.
Cybertruck production has picked up. It's likely to be largely a North American vehicle.
Tesla has stopped orders of the Foundation series Cybertruck, which started at $100,000. It is now selling non-Foundation versions, starting at $79,990. At that price, the Cybertruck should soon be eligible for IRA tax credits.
As of Oct. 17, anyone can order a Cybertruck, without a reservation, with near-term delivery. That suggests that the estimated two million reservations didn't translate into many sales.
Along with the Model 3 and Y inventory discounts and other efforts, Tesla's Cybertruck moves reflect a hard push for year-end sales.
Tesla has delivered a few dozen Semi vehicles to PepsiCo. By May 2024, a few more customers, including Walmart, had taken possession of at least one Tesla Semi. But it's still unclear what the specs and price for the EV big rig are. Tesla recently said it expected mass production in 2026, but Semi timelines have often slipped by years.
Tesla Robotaxi Event
At the Tesla robotaxi event, Elon Musk showed off the two-seat Cybercab, with butterfly doors and no steering wheel. Musk expects the Cybercab price tag will be below $30,000, with production starting "before 2027."
Further, he expects "fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in California and Texas next year — that's with the Model 3 and Model Y."
Elon Musk has said for years that Tesla would achieve self-driving "this year" or "next year," while production targets often slip considerably. He also didn't offer new evidence that Tesla FSD was making progress toward actual self-driving.
He also showed off a huge Robovan, but with no timing on when that will go into production.
Optimus humanoid robots were on display, but were largely teleoperated.
Tesla Model Y Refresh, 'Affordable' EV
Recent online chatter suggested that Tesla Shanghai was starting low-level production of the long-awaited updated "Juniper" Model Y. That might indicate actual deliveries in China by early 2025. It's unclear when Tesla's Berlin and Austin plants might begin output.
Like the Model S, X and 3 updates — which didn't boost sales much — the "Juniper" Model Y likely will have cosmetic exterior changes.
The EV giant this year ditched long-touted plans for a "next-generation" EV and "revolutionary" manufacturing. Tesla now plans "affordable vehicles," using existing production lines.
In the Q3 earnings report, Tesla said it still sees output of the "affordable" vehicle starting in the first half of 2025. That would suggest mass production and deliveries would start in late 2025 or beyond.
Musk, on the Q3 call, said the new EV should be sub-$30,000 after incentives. If that means the $7,500 IRA tax credit, that suggests the list price would be below $37,500, but perhaps not by much. That also raises further questions about how the vehicle might fare outside the U.S., without the IRA credits.
Tesla still hasn't even shown images for the upcoming "affordable" vehicle.
The speculation is that Tesla will produce a lower-cost variant of the Model 3 or Model Y, perhaps a hatchback. It's unclear how a low-end EV might fare in various markets, especially in China.
BYD Expansion
BYD sells BEVs and PHEVs from around $10,000 to $150,000, with a wide range of models. It's refreshing much of its lineup, while adding several new models. That includes new models for its premium Denza, FangChengBao and Yangwang brands.
BYD recently took full control of Denza, buying the last 10% owned by Mercedes-Benz.
A recently launched fifth-generation hybrid system offers touted 2,100 kilometers (1,305 miles) in combined battery-and-gas range. The system, which is being rolled out to new and existing models, is fueling booming orders.
Improved driver-assist systems and faster charging also reaching more of BYD's lineup.
Overseas sales have declined as a share of total sales in recent months, but BYD has big plans.
Export logistics have improved, in terms of ships and rail.
BYD's brand-new Thailand plant, its first full-assembly plant outside of China, has begun deliveries. There's also a knock-down plant in Uzbekistan, which puts together partially assembled vehicles.
A Brazil factory is due to fully open in early 2025. The EV giant also has plans to build factories in Hungary, Indonesia, Turkey, Cambodia and Pakistan.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU. That, along with the Hungary plant, will be two factories for Europe. The Cambodia and Pakistan plants will likely be knock-down plants.
The EV giant also is close to choosing a Mexico site and may set up in Vietnam as well.
BYD makes EV buses in California, but says it has no plans to enter the U.S. passenger EV market, amid import tariffs and political opposition. However, Trump has said he wants Chinese EV makers to build cars in the U.S.
Tesla Vs. BYD Batteries
Tesla traditionally has not mass produced its own batteries. For lithium-ion batteries, its joint venture partner Panasonic makes the cells and Tesla packages them. It also buys lithium-ion batteries from South Korea's LG. Tesla also buys a lot of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from China's CATL as well as some LFP batteries from BYD.
Tesla is working on 4680 batteries, first touted at the 2020 Battery Day. The 4680 batteries are standard lithium-ion chemistry, but the larger form factor offers the potential for various benefits and cost savings. Tesla's 4680 production has picked up in recent months.
Tesla has hinted at progress on the "dry cathode" problem, but reportedly mass-production issues remain. It appears that the 4680 battery density is only now reaching that of traditional 2170 cells.
Tesla is a major battery storage provider, though it gets its batteries from CATL.
BYD, meanwhile, is one of the world's largest EV battery makers. Its Blade batteries are a specialized form of lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) or lithium iron phosphate batteries. BYD supplies third-party EV makers, including Xiaomi, XPeng's Mona sub-brand, Nio's Orvo brand and Toyota. BYD supplies some EV batteries to Tesla Berlin.
BYD reportedly will unveil a next-generation Blade battery before year-end. That, along with various other models, could help rev up BEV sales growth next year.
BYD expects solid-state batteries for high-end models by 2027, but not fully reaching lower-end models until 2030-2032.
BYD is a major battery storage provider. It reportedly will be a supplier to Tesla's upcoming Shanghai Megapack factory.
Tesla's Other Businesses
Tesla has its own Supercharger network in its markets. That's especially important in the U.S. and countries like Australia, where third-party charging facilities are limited.
Tesla has deals with most automakers for access to Superchargers in the U.S. They'll also adopt the charger standard Tesla uses. Those deals, and some related charging subsidies, will boost revenue. But they reduce Tesla's charging moat in the U.S., which encouraged people to buy its EVs.
Tesla also has a solar installation business, but it's been struggling for years.
Tesla's self-driving ambitions continue. Musk is doubling down on FSD. He predicts Tesla will achieve true self-driving next year, as he's said for several yaers.
However, Tesla recently slashed the FSD prices to $8,000 from $12,000 and a peak of $15,000. That came shortly after halving the FSD subscription price to $99 a month from $199.
Tesla is moving toward offering FSD in China. But many automakers offer Level 2 systems there, or better, often at no cost.
On the Q3 earnings call, Musk conceded for the first time Tesla EVs running Hardware 3.0 may not ever achieve FSD, despite Musk's past pledges that the were "hardware ready."
Tesla also is pursuing a humanoid robot, Optimus, saying he expects it to be a multitrillion dollar business. He showed off many Optimus robots at the Oct. 10 robotaxi events, but they were largely teleoperated.
"We should be thought of as an AI or robotics company," Musk has told investors. "If somebody doesn't believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor."
BYD's Other Businesses
BYD, notably, makes its own chips. That, along with in-house batteries and other vertical integrations, help make BYD a low-cost EV maker.
The EV and battery giant also has solar operations.
BYD is introducing Level 2 driver-assistance systems in its premium brand models as well as more mainstream BYD brand offerings. Those services have been introduced in the premium Denza line and starting to filter down to its higher-end BYD-brand EVs in the coming months.
BYD reportedly aims to start equipping lower-end models with higher-end driver-assistance next year.
BYD Co. is largely known for its BYD Auto operations. BYD Electronics, which accounts for an increasingly smaller share of overall revenue, is involved in mostly low-margin businesses such as smartphone components and assembly. But margins are improving there as well.
EU Hikes Tariffs On Chinese EVs
The European Union has started imposing additional tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese BEVs. That's on top of the current 10% duties.
Specifically, the EU will impose an extra 17% tariff on BYD's BEVs.
Notably, the EU will only impose a 7.8% extra tariff on Tesla's China made-vehicles. Tesla Shanghai exports the Model 3 to the EU. The EV maker in July hiked Model 3 prices in Europe slightly, further weighing on sales there amid big declines in overall EV sales.
Meanwhile, the new duties don't apply to PHEVs, a big plus for BYD.
Tesla Earnings
In the third quarter, Tesla earnings unexpectedly rose 9% vs. a year earlier, snapping a four-quarter string of declines. Revenue climbed 8% to $25.2 billion, slightly missing.
But gross margins jumped to 19.8%, up 195 basis points vs. a year earlier. Record Tesla Energy margins, lower raw material costs, FSD revenue recognition and positive Cybertruck margins were among the factors.
BYD Earnings
BYD's Q3 earnings rose 16%, slightly above views. Sales jumped 29% to $28.7 billion, with growth accelerating for a second straight quarter but just missing views. However, BYD revenue topped Tesla's for the first time.
BYD's gross margin was 21.89% vs. 18.96% a year earlier. BYD Auto margins popped to 23.51% vs. 22.51% in Q3 2023.
R&D and capital spending costs continue to climb rapidly.
Tesla Stock Technicals
Tesla stock was up 0.2% so far in 2024 as of Nov. 1, according to MarketSurge analysis.
Shares spiked 21.9% on Oct. 24 after earnings, the best one-day gain in 11 years. On Oct. 25, shares cleared a 264.86 cup-with-handle buy point and set a 13-month closing high.
On Oct. 28, shares hit a 52-week high but reversed lower. Tesla stock fell 7.5% for the week, below the buy point and nearly triggering a 7%-8% sell rule.
Early Monday, shares triggered the 7%-8% sell rule. They also undercut the low of the Oct. 24 earnings gap up and the 21-day line.
It's possible that some Tesla's moves in the past two weeks reflects shifting perceptions on the presidential race, with Elon Musk aggressively campaigning for Donald Trump.
BYD Stock Technicals
BYD stock was up 29.25% in 2024 through Nov. 1.
Shares broke out past three buy points in late August, late September and early October.
The last two breakouts coincided with a powerful rally in Chinese stocks with Beijing announcing several stimulus measures.
Shares pulled back slightly below a 36.27 buy point by Nov. 1, but regained the entry on Nov. 4.
Investors also could view the recent pullback as a handle to its ultimate consolidation, going back to its all-time high of 43.61 in June 2022.
BYD, listed in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, trades over the counter in the U.S. Its U.S. shares often have mini-gaps as well as opening trade mini-spikes or tumbles before settling down.
Tesla Vs. BYD Market Cap
Tesla stock has a market cap of $799.2 billion as of Nov. 1. It's far above BYD's $97.6 billion.
Tesla Stock Vs. BYD Stock
BYD sells far more EVs than Tesla, though the latter still leads in BEVs. More broadly, BYD in many ways is the EV maker Tesla has claimed or aspired to be. BYD makes its own batteries and chips, and sells those batteries to third parties such as Tesla. Musk has talked about making a $25,000 Tesla, though he downplayed the idea on the Q3 earnings call. BYD makes EVs profitably at far below $25,000.
The Tesla Cybertruck is relatively new, but shipments are still low. It's unclear if yet-unseen upcoming "affordable" variants of aging vehicles will have a meaningful impact, or if the Model Y refresh will have big, last impacting
BYD has entered most of the world outside of the U.S. Its model lineup continues to expand dramatically, with big moves upscale and adding tech to its more-affordable offerings.
BYD's broad lineup and next-generation hybrid system means it's reaping the benefits of a global shift toward PHEVs over BEVs. Even so, BYD seems on track to regain the BEV crown in Q4.
Tesla stock and BYD have pulled back below buy points.
Keep your eyes on BYD and Tesla, as well as Tesla stock vs. BYD stock.
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