If soaring home prices were the whole story behind America’s falling birth rate, the solution might be as simple as building more houses. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says history suggests it’s not that simple.
After a post on X in 2024 argued that "Americans not having kids is easily explained, no one can afford to live," citing average U.S. home prices climbing from $68,700 in 1980 to $479,500 in 2022, Musk pushed back. "False, birth rate drops as countries get wealthier. Has happened throughout history. Looks at birth rates WW. The poorer the country, the higher the birth rate," Musk wrote on X, linking to a Wikipedia list of countries by total fertility rate.
His point was that while affordability may influence family planning, it does not fully explain a demographic pattern that has repeated across wealthy nations for generations.
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Prosperity’s Surprising Trade-Off
The trend Musk referenced is well documented.
As countries become wealthier, more urbanized and better educated, fertility rates have generally declined. Many of the world’s highest-income nations now sit well below the replacement rate of roughly 2.1 children per woman, while many lower-income countries continue to report significantly higher birth rates.
The U.S. reflects that broader shift.
Provisional figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in April showed the U.S. general fertility rate fell to a record-low 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15 through 44 in 2025. The nation’s total fertility rate hovered around 1.6 children per woman, extending a decline that began in 2007.
Researchers point to a combination of factors, including later marriage, delayed parenthood, greater educational attainment, urbanization, changing social norms and economic pressures. Housing costs, child care expenses and student debt all contribute, but the overall decline has played out across countries with very different housing markets and economic conditions.
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Fewer Births, More Robots
The consequences extend well beyond population statistics.
As birth rates fall and populations age, employers across many industries are preparing for a future with fewer working-age employees. Restaurants are one example. Miso Robotics estimates annual labor turnover in fast food reaches roughly 144%, creating persistent staffing challenges for operators.
That has fueled interest in automation designed to support restaurant workers rather than replace them.
Miso Robotics’ AI-powered Flippy Fry Station assists employees by handling fryer operations and has prepared more than 5 million baskets of food across more than 200,000 hours of real-world operation with restaurant brands including White Castle, according to the company.
The company has also expanded beyond kitchen robotics through its acquisition of restaurant operations platform Zignyl, whose software is used by brands including Jersey Mike’s, Cinnabon and Auntie Anne’s. Together, those technologies reflect a broader effort to help restaurants operate more efficiently as labor shortages persist.
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A Demographic Shift That Won’t Be Solved Overnight
Whether birth rates rebound remains an open question, but the broader trend is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
The CDC reported roughly 700,000 fewer babies were born in the U.S.in 2025 than at the peak in 2007. Economists say that, combined with slower immigration, could reshape the labor force, economic growth and government finances for decades.
Melissa Kearney, an economist at the University of Notre Dame, told NPR that if the U.S. experiences both low fertility and lower immigration, the country "will have to take meaningful steps to invest in all the things that will make us more productive with fewer working-age people."
That idea closely mirrors the broader implication of Musk’s post. His argument wasn’t simply about why fewer Americans are having children. It was that declining birth rates have historically accompanied rising prosperity, making the challenge much larger than housing affordability alone.
As that trend continues, the debate may gradually shift from why birth rates are falling to how businesses and economies adapt to a future with fewer workers.
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