Global CEO Elon Musk is not surprised.
The billionaire has gained influence and global geopolitical power thanks to Starlink, the satellite internet access service that his company SpaceX provides to a fast growing number of places around the world, including Ukraine.
Last month, Musk made a big prediction.
The serial entrepreneur, who has been pleading for several months for a peaceful solution to the Russia-Ukraine war, warned that this conflict would have unimaginable consequences for the order of the world.
But his pleas have been ignored, especially in the Western camp, where Ukraine's supporters say that not defeating Russia would send a message to other dictatorships, that it is possible to invade a country with impunity.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. This unprovoked invasion created a strong wave of support for Kyiv from NATO and its partners.
A New Cold War
The conflict was presented as the clash between autocracies and democracies. Russia and President Vladimir Putin were the autocrats, while Ukraine and its allies symbolized the democracies.
The idea, according to the Ukrainian camp and its supporters, was to avoid signaling to autocrats that they could invade a free and independent country without consequences.
For Putin, the war had to be fast. What he called a "special military operation" in Ukraine was intended to bring about regime change in Kyiv, and the "denazification" and demilitarization of the country. The war objective would evolve toward "liberation” of the entire Donbass and finally the annexation of the occupied regions.
But this offensive, expected to last a few days, faced strong resistance from the Ukrainian army. The Russian army progressed rapidly in the first weeks, but a year later it occupies only one sixth (16.7%) of Ukrainian territory (of which 6.45% had already been occupied since 2014, the year Russia occupied Crimea, according to official data).
The exact number of victims on both sides of the conflict is extremely difficult to assess. No official figures are available. But surely, the conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions. Ukraine claims to have killed more than 150,000 Russian soldiers. It doesn't release tallies of its own deaths.
The conflict has clearly divided the world into two, in a replay of the cold war. The West with those who support Ukraine and the East with Russia. There are some unaligned countries, but you mostly hear about the two "new" blocks.
Musk believes that the conflict has already delivered its winners and losers. That's what he just suggested in a thread on Twitter. And the big winner is the emergence of a new Russia-China alliance. The big loser is American diplomacy, whose actions have led to the new Russian-Chinese axis, the techno king seems to say.
His remarks come as Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Moscow with Vladimir Putin.
'US Diplomacy Skill Is Bronze Tier'
"While everyone is distracted with Trump’s impending arrest, President Xi just called Putin his 'dear friend,'" a Twitter user posted on Mar. 20. "Thanks to Joe Biden, America is divided while our two strongest adversaries are now united."
Musk did not hesitate to comment and for him this rapprochement was "inevitable."
"Inevitable. US diplomacy skill is bronze tier," the billionaire blasted out.
The serial entrepreneur seems to be repeating criticisms he already made in the past. For him, US diplomats have lost their power of persuasion and have become warmongers.
He suggests that Russia's isolation has rather had the opposite effect: it pushed China, the great rival of the United States, to embrace Putin.
The State Department didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Last month, Musk had already predicted that the American position on the conflict would lead to a Russia-China alliance, as Putin becomes increasingly isolated on the international stage.
Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow on Mar. 20, where he is expected to stay until Mar. 22. This three-day state visit comes as China wants to appear as a mediator for the war in Ukraine.
In an article published in the Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Xi presented his visit as a "journey of friendship, cooperation and peace".
This trip comes a few days after the announcement by the International Criminal Court (ICC) that an arrest warrant had been issued against Putin and a Russian official for war crimes. The ICC said that the Russian president bears individual criminal responsibility for the abduction and "illegal" deportation of Ukrainian children since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Xi's trip to Moscow is therefore a clear support for Putin. Beijing has never condemned the Russian invasion and has strong economic ties with Russia.
According to Chinese authorities, the volume of trade between the two countries reached "an all-time high" in 2022. The West has imposed sanctions on Russia.
