Elon Musk is not giving up.
The richest man in the world has taken criticism for paying insufficient attention to his businesses and not leaving geopolitics to politicians and career diplomats.
In recent days Tesla's (TSLA) has been looking for the best option to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.
He has made rookie mistakes, proposing a highly controversial plan.
Under the terms the Ukrainians would have ceded Crimea to Russia, annexed by the Russians in 2014. Ukraine also would've had to renounce becoming a member of NATO and the European Union, two organizations that Russian President Vladimir Putin considers threats to his country's sovereignty.
The Ukrainians saw it as a proposal to capitulate. The plan gave the impression that Musk was pro-Russian, as it mirrored Russia's demands.
Musk Stumbles, Finds Diplomatic Footing
Musk appeared taken aback by the heavy criticism of his initiative. He seemed surprised that the Ukrainians, whom he'd supported from the beginning of the conflict in words and actions, turned against him.
After two stormy days, he found his footing. He managed to quell a controversy he and his aerospace company, SpaceX, sparked by his threat to cut off Starlink, a secure satellite internet service, from Ukraine if the U.S. government did not provide some funding.
SpaceX loses $20 million a month related to Starlink in Ukraine, Musk said. He'd justified the demand by saying the company was forced to allocate additional resources to the service in the face of Russian cyberattacks.
Starlink has become the sole communication system of the Ukrainian armed forces on the front because Russia has destroyed most of the communications infrastructure.
If his argument is fair, his timing is a problem. Ukraine is recording victories in several regions against the Russians.
In any event the billionaire corrected the situation by withdrawing his request to the Pentagon and by committing to provide Starlink free of charge to Ukraine. He thus returned to the good graces of the Ukrainians.
Compromise
But where many people would have given up after heavy criticism, Musk perseveres in the search for a solution.
The billionaire seems to have considered many options and outcomes and appears to have determined that compromise is necessary. Russia and Ukraine both must agree to make sacrifices to prevent the conflict from escalating.
This is what he just announced on Twitter. It all started with a post from tech investor David Sacks, who is also a friend of his.
"3 most likely outcomes of Ukraine War," Sacks posted on Oct. 20. "1. Forever War - Russian mobilization reestablishes stalemate. 2. Nuclear War - Ukrainian counter-offensive keeps winning; Russia uses nukes to defend Crimea. 3. Compromise - US tells Ukraine it can’t have Crimea back. Take your pick."
Musk seems to agree with this reasoning.
"Exactly," he said.
He then explained that for now the two parties had made choice number 1, which could then lead to choice number 2.
"Most probable outcome by far is a horrible war of attrition that destroys Ukraine & severely damages Russia, with massive body count on both sides. And, in the end, the same outcome. So why?"
Having taken flak for his first solution, the tech mogul did not specify his choice here. Musk the realist became somewhat cautious.
But one of his fans then pushed him to make a clear choice.
"Elon, which option are you inclined towards (which could potentially result into de-escalating this war situation)? Option # 3? Compromise?", the Twitter user asked him.
"Compromise is overwhelmingly the most likely outcome," the billionaire responded. "Just a question of how much death & destruction happens before then."
Musk seems to say that Ukraine must agree to cede part of its territory to achieve peace.
"What about the Donbas region? Where is the line in your view? Just curious," another Twitter user pointed out to him.
"That should be the nature of the debate," the billionaire said.
