It’s time for the Carolina Panthers to trade for Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Training camp is five weeks away. If the Panthers are going to add a veteran, which neither coach Matt Rhule nor general manager Scott Fitterer has ruled out, Mayfield and the team would benefit from placing a Ben McAdoo playbook in Mayfield’s lap as soon as possible.
There should also be newfound urgency from Carolina after recent reports suggest Seattle is still highly interested in acquiring the former 2018 No. 1 pick.
Behind the scenes, not much has changed between Carolina and Cleveland. The Charlotte Observer reported in April, and again in May, that the Panthers want the Browns to take on the majority of Mayfield’s contract in a trade. There is still about a $4.5 million gap between Carolina and Cleveland as the Browns are willing to pay up to half of Mayfield’s fully-guaranteed $18.9 million.
The Browns are seeking a mid-to-late round pick for Mayfield according to a league source. That value is based on what Cleveland would receive for him via a compensatory pick. Though highly unlikely, the Browns could hold Mayfield out this season — pay him to not show up to practice or games — then he’d sign as a free agent elsewhere next spring, earning Cleveland a compensatory pick.
Mayfield will not play another snap for the Browns regardless of how embattled quarterback Deshaun Watson’s looming suspension rules. Even if the league suspends him indefinitely, or for a season, do not expect Mayfield to fill in, even if it makes sense on paper.
Tough QB situation
Both Carolina and Seattle could use Mayfield. Seattle’s quarterback room features Drew Lock, an up-and-down thrower entering his fourth season, and veteran Geno Smith who hasn’t started double-digit games since 2014.
Carolina’s quarterback situation is not much better. The team drafted Matt Corral, but he’s being integrated slowly with no expectation to be the Week 1 starter. Sam Darnold, who Rhule said would start if the team had games to play in June, has a career record of 17-32. Compared to Mayfield’s 29-30 career record, Darnold is not nearly the winner Mayfield is.
Darnold’s best season came in 2019. He threw for 3,024 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He posted a 45.6 QBR that season and a career-best 6.9 yards per attempt. Last season, Darnold reverted to his New York self, throwing nine touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a league-worse 33.2 QBR.
Excuses can be (and are) made for Darnold: He’s had five different offensive coordinators in as many seasons, and has never been sacked fewer than 30 times in a year.
Mayfield has endured similar hardships. His next offensive coordinator will also be his fifth. In 2019 and 2021, Mayfield was sacked 40 or more times. Yet in 2019, he posted 3,827 passing yards, a career-high. Mayfield’s career-worst seasons are comparable to Darnold’s best years.
The case for Baker Mayfield
In 2020 Mayfield posted career bests in interceptions (8), QBR (65.5), and yards per attempt (7.7). A closer look reveals he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league over his last six games of the 2020 season. Mayfield threw for 1,713 yards, 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a 103.4 rating. The Browns went 4-2 before beating the Steelers on wild-card weekend, giving Cleveland its first postseason victory since 1993.
To put those numbers in perspective, project them over 16 games and it translates to 4,568 yards, which would have ranked fifth in the league. His rating over that time would have ranked ninth. Pro Football Focus graded only Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes higher than Mayfield during that stretch.
Six games are not enough of a sample size to define Mayfield as a top 15 quarterback, but after the 2020 season, many around the league were. He’s been chasing those highs ever since, even while playing through a torn labrum in 2021 which he suffered while trying to make a tackle in Week 2.
Mayfield supporters argue his 2020 self is representative of who is: a quarterback capable of leading an offense to the playoffs while protecting the football and capitalizing on explosive plays. Because of injury, he never got the opportunity to build upon his 2020 momentum. Instead, he regressed, lost confidence, and the Browns moved on with Watson.
Both the resume and eye test reveal Mayfield (who is fully recovered from off-season labrum surgery) is a better quarterback than Darnold.
If not Mayfield, who?
Mayfield is not the only veteran available. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who is owed $26.9 million in 2022 if San Francisco does not cut him, is on target to start throwing soon after having successful right shoulder surgery in March.
Garoppolo will be 31 years old in November. He provides both unquestioned maturity and consistency compared to the 27-year-old Mayfield or 25-year-old Darnold. But there are concerns within the Panthers about Garoppolo’s injury history.
During his five years in San Francisco, Garoppolo missed 35 games, including two games last year that were unrelated to his offseason shoulder surgery. Garoppolo dealt with ankle, calf, and thumb injuries all year before hurting his shoulder in the playoffs.
He started five games in 2017, three in 2018, and six in 2020. In 2019 and 2021 he started 16 and 15 games, respectively. What good is acquiring a quarterback who isn’t routinely available? In contrast, Mayfield has only missed two games over his four-year career, both last season when the Browns dropped out of playoff contention and he was shut down to focus on healing his shoulder.
Yet, most evaluators prefer Garoppolo to Mayfield when asked.
“I like Garoppolo. I think he’s become somewhat underrated. He’s been productive,” former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum told The Charlotte Observer. “That’s the guy I would go after. If they can get him then I think they’ve improved themselves at the position.”
Garoppolo has a career completion percentage of 68%, while Mayfield completes 61% of his passes. They have nearly identical touchdown and interception percentages around 4.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Garoppolo’s career yards per attempt (8.4) are more than a yard greater than Mayfield’s 7.3 yards-per-attempt average.
Despite positive reviews from OTAs and minicamp, both Garoppolo and Mayfield provide Carolina an upgrade at quarterback. Because of Garoppolo’s injury history, Mayfield is the safer option.
It’s time Carolina finds a way to acquire Mayfield before another team beats them to it.
