Labour loses control of Tameside after swing to Reform
There’s been a big swing in Tameside, which had been under Labour control. Reform has gained 18 seats, while Labour has lost 14 – meaning they have lost control of the council.
In Bolton, Reform has again made significant gains but the council remains under no overall control.
With results available from 21 out of 136 councils, Labour has now lost Tameside, Tamworth, Hartlepool, Redditch and Exeter.
It has lost 125 seats with Reform gaining 163.
Updated
We have two more results from councils where the Lib Dems are the largest party.
In Brentwood, Reform gained seven seats but the Lib Dems remain the largest party.
In Hull, Ed Davey’s party have lost their majority but remain the largest party.
Jamie Grierson is at the count in Oxford
The scale of the electoral challenge facing Labour is being laid bare as the party haemorrhages councillors and Reform makes significant gains.
Keir Starmer’s party went into Thursday’s local elections expected to lose up to 1,850 councillors, with senior figures describing the contest as “tough”.
Initial results are painting a bleak picture for the prime minister, with Labour losing councillors in its traditional northern heartlands.
Updated
Greens leader Zack Polanski said Starmer should “listen to the people and go” after dire poor local elections results for Labour.
Polanski said the Greens felt bullish about their prospects in London boroughs to be counted later today.
These first Green gains confirm what I’ve heard as I criss-crossed England and Wales during the campaign.
Voters are backing the only party taking the cost-of-living crisis seriously. We are the only party with real plans to cut bills, reduce rents and provide genuinely affordable homes.
I’ve made it clear that we are here not just to be disappointed by Labour, but to replace them. These early results indicate that voters want to see that change too. That is why Keir Starmer has to listen to the people and go.
Lib Dems gain Portsmouth, Tories hold Harlow
First Stockport, now Portsmouth – the Lib Dems have gained control of their second council of the night.
In Harlow, the Tories added to their majority after gaining five seats from Labour.
The Liberal Democrats said of the Portsmouth result:
This is a stonking success for the Liberal Democrats in Portsmouth. We’ve held our ground and grown, despite Reform throwing everything they had at this campaign.
Across the city, many voters have given short shrift to Farage – someone who chooses to side with Donald Trump even when he disparages our Royal Navy.
Updated
Results in Exeter, North East Lincolnshire
Results are landing quickly now. In North East Lincolnshire, which had a third of its seats up, Reform have gone from one to 14 seats – but the council remains under no overall control.
In Exeter, meanwhile, Labour lost four seats and lost control of the council.
Updated
On the BBC, Laura Kuenssberg has asked a wide selection of her guests from different parties what they experienced campaigning on the doorstep in the run-up to these elections.
As expected, there is some deviation in their messaging. There is, however, one factor that comes up repeatedly, and that is as strong dislike for Keir Starmer.
The former Conservative activist and now Reform UK backer Tim Montgomerie is the latest to be asked. He says:
The antagonism towards Keir Starmer on the doorstep actually upset me at times. The vehemence of it, the personal nature of it, I’ve been quite struck by. No-one in politics quite deserves the anger that is directed towards the prime minister.
Reform gains councillors in Chorley and Southend-on-Sea
Reform has made gains in both Chorley and Southend-on-Sea, though there is no overall change to control of either council.
The Press Association, which is providing the data for our results tracker, says that after 10 fully declared council results, Labour has won only 17% of the seats it was defending.
Reform has so far won 56% of the seats it was contesting, it adds.
Labour holds Salford and Lincoln
Labour has managed to retain control of Lincoln council, which Reform had been heavily targeting. Farage’s party took four seats tonight – they also won the mayoralty last year – but it wasn’t enough to completely erode Labour’s majority.
In Salford, Reform gained 13 seats but again Labour retain control of the council, which had a third of its seats up for grabs.
Results exceeding Reform's expectations, says Farage
Nigel Farage has told reporters at the party’s Millbank headquarters that the results so far have exceeded his expectations.
I think what you’re witnessing is an historic change in British politics. Forget left-right, there is no more left-right. It is gone, it is out of the window, it’s finished.
As you can see, we are scoring stunning percentages in traditional old Labour areas. We’re currently averaging about 39% of the vote, of the seats that are in already, we’re currently on 145 seats won.
We are way exceeding anything that I thought.
He added:
What you’ll see tomorrow is the same pattern repeated across the south when we win Essex by an extraordinary margin and Norfolk by an extraordinary margin.
Lib Dems win control of Stockport
Stockport council, which was previously under no overall control, has been taken by the Liberal Democrats after they gained three seats.
A total of 21 out of 63 seats were up for grabs.
Responding to the win, a party spokesperson said:
This is a great result and shows that Liberal Democrat teams can win right across the country.
Our hardworking local team has held off the rise of Reform – while others sought to sow division and chaos, we focused on the issues that matter.
Updated
Labour loses 23 seats in Wigan - but retains control of council
Labour has retained overall control of Wigan council, though there is little cause for cheer for them. Only a third of the seats were up for election and they lost 20 of those.
Conservative MP Lewis Cocking has welcomed a “fantastic set of results” for his party in Broxbourne. Ten out of 30 seats on the council were up for election in the Hertfordshire borough.
The Conservatives suffered a loss to Reform UK, but ultimately won seven seats and have retained control of the authority. Reform UK won two seats and Labour one.
Cocking, who previously led Broxbourne Council, told the Press Association he was “really over the moon”.
We’ve had a fantastic set of results in Broxbourne. I’m really sad we didn’t get three of our candidates over the line.
No change in Hart or Peterborough
In Hart, the council remains under no overall control after Reform took just one seat from the Tories. The Lib Dems remain the largest party.
There is also no overall change in Peterborough.
Updated
Labour loses Tamworth, Conservatives hold Broxbourne
More bad news for Labour, which has lost control of Tamworth council after Reform gained nine seats. No party has majority in Tamworth.
In Broxbourne, a true Conservative stronghold, the Tories have retained control.
Mark Brown is at the Hartlepool council count.
The turnout in Hartlepool was 31.5%, slightly higher than the 28% of the last local election in 2024.
The council has a volatile leadership history with Labour, the Conservatives, Independents and the Brexit Party all having spells in charge in recent decades.
This time the Conservatives were defending two seats, losing both of them to Reform.
In 2021, losing the Hartlepool by-election to the Conservatives made Starmer seriously consider resigning as Labour leader. He saw it as a “personal rejection” but was persuaded not to act hastily.
Could Hartlepool and the wider results in the north east have Starmer once again considering his future? Is Hartlepool setting the north east narrative?
Reform took County Durham last year and is confident of taking Sunderland, which has been Labour since the council was established in its current form in 1973. That important declaration is expected around 4pm.
Reform also hopes to take Gateshead (4pm) and South Tyneside (5.30pm). In Newcastle, the Greens are confident of making significant gains.
Hartlepool MP calls for Starmer to step down as PM after council results
Mark Brown is at the Hartlepool council count.
Reform are the runaway winners in what could be a catastrophic day for Labour in north east England.
There were 12 seats up for grabs in Hartlepool and Reform won every single one of them. It means Labour, which had a slim majority and was defending six seats, is likely to become the opposition.
Because only a third of the council was being elected, Reform do not have an outright majority. The party will have to make deals with independents in order to take control.
Labour councillors and supporters were noticeably despondent at the count in Brierton sports centre. They knew what was coming. Heavy defeat was in the air.
The town’s Labour MP Jonathan Brash watched his wife Pamela Hargreaves, leader of Hartlepool council, lose her seat.
He told the Guardian he was angry and he repeated his call for Keir Starmer to go.
It has been a terrible night for the Labour party. What I’ve seen here is extraordinarily good, hard-working, Hartlepool people lose their seats. I’ve seen canvassers working night and day in this election and it’s all been for naught and the reason has absolutely nothing to do with them.
They are delivering for this town, they have been delivering for this town and the reality is we need change at the top of the Labour party.
I think the very best thing the prime minister could do now is address the nation tomorrow and set out a timetable for his departure. We can then have an orderly transition, one that, by the way, ensures the full breadth of talent within the Labour party is able to stand, should it want to.
Brash said that was not him backing Andy Burnham – “I don’t know who’s going to put their name forward” – but it was “disgraceful” that the Greater Manchester mayor was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
He hopes Starmer will go but it was about more than that, he said.
We need bolder policies to actually fix the foundations of our country. We’ve got a huge majority for three years. There are things that we can do that are radical and different and really change the lives of people for the better. It’s time to stop the political cowardice on those big issues and actually go for it and make those massive changes this country needs.
Brash said he expected Labour would now become the opposition in Hartlepool “and we will be holding Reform’s feet to the fire”.
Updated
Labour loses control of Hartlepool and Redditch
Two more council declarations, and it’s not good news for Labour.
In Hartlepool, Reform UK has gained 11 seats while Labour has lost six, meaning they have lost control of the council. There is now no party with overall control in Hartlepool.
In Redditch, meanwhile, Reform has taken eight seats from Labour, the Tories, the Greens and an independent. As with Hartlepool, Redditch has moved from Labour controlled to no overall control.
Reform UK are making gains in Wigan, taking six of the first seven results to be declared, with an independent taking the other seat.
However, the result will not affect control of the council as Labour began the night with 62 of the 75 seats, with only 25 seats being contested on the night.
The Press Association reports there were hugs and cheers at the Salford City Council count as Labour held the Eccles ward with 1,663 votes to Reform’s 1,207.
The Green Party claimed the Quays seat from the Liberal Democrats.
Halton held by Labour
Halton is the first full council to be declared. Labour lost 15 seats to Reform but retained control of the council as only a third of the seats were up for election.
Halton is home to the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary seat, which Reform won from Labour by just six votes in a byelection last year.
See more here:
Updated
A bit more from John Curtice, who says results so far show Reform taking an average of about 28% of the vote.
That’s more or less in line with what you would expect given that’s where they are at the moment in the opinion polls.
We are also certainly seeing evidence of Labour’s vote falling away quite heavily, particularly in places where they were previously strong – on average down by 21 points on 2022.
Oh and by the way doing particularly badly in one ward which has a very substantial muslim population. And of course we know that in 2024, Labour’s vote fell very heavily in such places. Here is the first indication that that may well be replicated.
So far not quite so bad for the Conservatives, only down by five points. But it’s down five points on not a particularly good result back in 2022.
Too early to say too much about the Greens except basically, wherever they’re fighting, their vote is up. They’re putting in a credible performance but it’s kind of a good second or a good third.
Updated
The first seat at the Salford City Council election count has been taken from Labour by Reform.
In the Walkden North ward, Reform’s candidate Miles Henderson had 1,209 votes to Labour Jack Youd’s 953, with the Green party in third place with 427 votes.
Labour will remain in overall control of the council, whatever the result tonight, where 21 of the 60 seats are up for election.
Full results tracker
A reminder that you can find all the results from England, Scotland and Wales in our tracker:
You might notice, however, that our results appear slightly differently to others’. My colleagues who built the tracker have provided this explanation:
Our results are provided by the Press Association (PA). Numbers for change in seats are calculated against the state of the council or parliament just before this election. Other organisations calculate using the previous election, and this can lead to discrepancies. In Wales, the electoral system is sufficiently different to previous elections that comparison is not given.
Other outlets may also announce individual ward councillor results as they become known, while PA release results for each council only when its full count is complete. PA collates results only for elections that were due in this electoral cycle, meaning there may be council byelection results in other parts of the country that are not included. There are frequent changes in ward boundaries, sometimes accompanied by changes in the number of councillors overall. “Shadow elections” were also held for two new unitary authorities due to be created in Surrey in 2027.
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Professor John Curtice, perhaps the UK’s best-known pollster, is on the BBC News channel now discussing what early results in England are showing us.
He says that polling prior to this election suggested this would be a difficult night for Labour and the Conservatives, with Reform UK and the Greens making significant gains.
He said:
There’s nothing so far in these early results to against that expectation.
Probably an awful lot of the councillors who get elected tonight will get elected on relatively low shares of the vote.
This is the product of the five-party politics and it will therefore sometimes mean that the person who gains a seat is not necessarily the party who’s made most progress since 2022.
Reform win in first results to be declared
Reform UK has won in one of the first results to be declared, with Philippa Nicholson winning in Brentwood’s Hutton South ward.
She won with 987 votes – 41% ahead of the Conservatives on 785 votes.
Reform also won a seat in Chorley, with Martin Topp securing 778 votes in Chorley East, ahead of Labour on 677.
Updated
Here are some more images from counts around England:
The Labour group leader in Harlow, which is expected to be one of the first councils in England to declare its local election result, has said he will “lose some really good councillors, some hard-working councillors, this evening”.
James Griggs told the Press Association that “there’ve been some mistakes” since Labour won the general election – and the Harlow constituency in Essex – almost two years ago.
He said:
It’s easy to focus on one mistake, or one or two mistakes, whatever they may be, and forget about the hundreds of really good bits of delivery from the manifesto from just two years ago.
A lot of the stuff will take a while to come through – it is taking time, there’s a lot of repairing to do after the damage of the 14 years in austerity.
Labour is defending five seats out of 11 up for election in the Harlow Council poll.
On the front page of tomorrow’s Times newspaper is a story claiming that Ed Miliband has “privately suggested to Sir Keir Starmer that he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure”. A spokesperson for the secretary of state for energy and net zero said: “We do not accept this account.”
Asked about it on the BBC, David Lammy warns Labour MPs against playing “pass the parcel” by removing Starmer as PM.
I think Ed Miliband has said that he doesn’t recognise that.
But look, let’s be clear, Keir Starmer won a mandate for five years to deliver for the British people, and now some people are suggesting that we should go away and play pass the parcel.
The Tories did that with leader after leader after leader.
He added:
Yes, there are questions that we have to answer, but there is no, there is no circumstances in which the answer to the questions that the British people are raising is to change the leader yet again.
That is not what is coming up on the doorstep. What they want is delivery. What they want is hope. What they want is change, and that’s what we’ve got to deliver.
Reform UK MP Richard Tice, who it’s rumoured could make an appearance at the count in Newcastle-under-Lyme, has just posted this on X:
Early positive vibes through the day being reinforced by early indicators as counting underway in some areas.
Huge thanks to all our amazing candidates, supporters and activists.
And massive thanks to the huge numbers who have voted Reform.
We are making history.
In the run-up to yesterday’s elections, candidates and political parties described a climate of abuse, including death threats and intimidation while campaigning.
Labour’s Dan Jarvis, the security minister, condemned “the rising tide of vile abuse, harassment and intimidation aimed towards elected officials and candidates” online and in person. “Anyone engaging in this sort of behaviour is directly attacking our democracy and we all must do more to stop it becoming normalised,” he said.
A spokesperson for the Green party said some candidates had received death threats or been “yelled at or chased down the street”, and some had withdrawn from campaigning in certain areas due to harassment.
“Anecdotally, this has been the worst year in memory,” the spokesperson said. They said the party had been “a focus at this election more than ever before”, with “some wildly false claims being made about the party and its representatives, which some members of the public have accepted on face value”.
Read more here:
We’re getting statements from some of the political parties now as we wait for results.
For the Conservatives, party chairman Kevin Hollinrake said:
We have run an energetic and positive campaign, showcasing that we have a clear plan to get Britain working again and that we have the team to deliver it... We know that so soon after a historic general election defeat and contesting wards won during the Party’s polling highs, that this will be a difficult set of elections for us. But we will continue to rebuild and to show the public that we have changed, to demonstrate that only this new Conservative party is a credible alternative.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said:
People are deeply disappointed with a Labour government that has been too timid to fix the country, but they are also appalled by the rise of Reform and Nigel Farage’s Trump-style politics. While those on the extremes of the right and the left want to burn everything down, Liberal Democrats want to fix what’s broken. Every Liberal Democrat local champion elected today will fight tirelessly for the communities they serve.
Green party leader Zack Polanski said:
I’ve travelled across England and Wales and I’m hearing the same everywhere I go – confidence that we will win more councillors than ever before. The news from the doorstep is that we will be taking seats from not just Labour but the Tories and Lib Dems too, from all across the country. Voters are responding to the fact that Greens are the only party taking the cost-of-living crisis seriously, with real plans to cut bills, reduce rents and provide genuinely affordable homes, as well as tackling the climate and nature crisis.
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said:
Throughout this election, we have heard a clear appetite for change. People want a government that will stand up for Wales and focus relentlessly on the key issues affecting their lives. People have told us they have been inspired by Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership and driven by a desire for a positive alternative to Reform UK’s chaos and division.
Analysis: results set to have transformative impact on British politics
In case you missed it on Thursday, my colleague Andrew Sparrow wrote this excellent guide to why these elections could be so transformative for British politics:
We don’t have any results yet, but unless all the opinion polls, and all the council byelections that have taken place over the past 12 months, and all the parliamentary byelections that have taken place since the general election, turn out to be completely unreliable guides to how people vote today, then we already have a rough idea of what the outcome will look like. It will be enough to transform the political landscape of Britain – in at least seven ways.
1) The full arrival of five-party politics in England
Two-party politics has been in decline in British politics for more than half a century. Its high point was in 1951, when 97% of people who voted in the UK general election opted for either the Conservative party or Labour. In recognition of the Lib Dems, people used to talk about England having a two-and-a-half party system. Scotland and Wales have had strong nationalist parties for years, and Reform UK easily won the English local elections last year. Under Zack Polanski, the Greens have now been soaring in the polls and this is the first English election where talking about “main” parties and “minor” parties no longer makes sense. (How can it, when the “minor” parties with least parliamentary representation, Reform UK and the Greens, have been the two best-performing parties in some polls?) Those terms describe the parliamentary situation but not politics outside, where five parties are competitive across England and it is probably more useful to think in terms of legacy parties and disruptor parties.
2) Reform UK’s emergence as a GB-wide party
When Nigel Farage was leading Ukip, it looked like an English nationalist party. Scotland seemed to have a healthy resistance to Faragism and on one occasion, in 2013, he had to be locked in a pub in Edinburgh for his own protection. The Brexit party also never really succeeded in Scotland (although it did make inroads into Wales), but under its new name, Reform UK, it is competing with Plaid Cymru for first place in Wales, and with Labour for second place in Scotland. It should easily win the English locals, and so it is the only party with a realistic chance of coming first or second in England, in Scotland and in Wales. That is why Farage is boasting about his being the “only true national party”.
3) Wales going nationalist
Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, is widely expected to be the largest party in the Senedd after the elections and, unless Labour and Reform UK form some extraordinary version of their own Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, Plaid will be the only party with a realistic chance of forming a government. Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid leader, would be the first non-Labour first minister of Wales since devolution. Assuming the SNP remain in power in Scotland (almost certain), and with Sinn Féin the largest party at Stormont, this would mean nationalists leading the three non-English nations in the UK.
This does not mean Welsh independence is on the cards. Although formally committed to independence, Plaid has never given any serious thought to how independence might be achieved and a government that tried to implement it would find it even more complicated and less popular than the project has been in Scotland, where independence was rejected in a referendum in 2014. But, after that vote, the Scottish parliament got new powers, and the Scottish government started to use them to diverge from UK government tax policy. The Welsh government has fewer devolved powers than its Edinburgh counterpart, but with Plaid in power in Cardiff over time that may change.
4) Labour support collapsing – especially in London
If Plaid win in Wales, it will be the first time Labour has lost a big election there for more than 100 years. It is also expected to lose big in London, where it is the dominant party in local government and where at the last election it won 59 of the 75 parliamentary seats. In fact, it is on course to do badly everywhere, recording its worst result since at least the 1970s. Here is the forecast from Britain Elects, who produce election forecasts for the New Statesman and who have a good record.
Tomorrow you may hear talk from Labour figures of the 1968 London elections. Taking place after devaluation the previous year, they were an utter disaster for Labour, which lost 17 of the 20 boroughs it controlled in the capital. They almost all went Tory. The upside for Labour people looking for a positive message out of this today is that the party recovered and, two years later, Harold Wilson called a general election that he thought he might win. But he lost. And Wilson did not have to contend with Reform UK, or the Greens, or five-party politics, or prolonged austerity, or social media, or any of the other factors that make Starmer’s situation different.
5) Local government getting more pluralist
Local government in Britain used to be dominated by the two biggest legacy parties, the Conservatives and Labour. That picture should take a considerable jolt this weekend. The Liberal Democrats think they will be at least the second largest party in local government by the time of the next election, in terms of councillor numbers, and perhaps even the biggest. And Reform UK and the Greens will have a signficantly bigger presence. This chart, from an excellent preview of the elections by Dylan Difford on Substack, shows how councillor numbers have changed over recent years.
And Open Council Data has full figures.
6) Failure of first past the post
It is increasingly clear that the election system used in UK parliamentary elections, and for local elections in England and Wales, does not work in five-party politics. It functions well for two-party politics, but in multi-party politics it can easily lead to a party winning a far larger proportion of the seats than it merits based on the proportion of the votes it won. This famously happened at the last general election when Labour won 34% of the vote but 63% of the seats. Less well known is how this is increasingly happening at local authority level too. Rob Ford has also written a terrific Substack guide to the elections, and he includes this chart showing how in some cases last year Reform was winning three-quarters of the seats on a council with less than half the votes. Ford says:
The crucial question for the Greens this year, as for Reform last year, is whether they can push their support in target areas above the ‘tipping point’ where first past the post goes from sandbag to springboard. For Reform last year, as the graph below illustrates, that tipping point came around 30% – in councils where Reform won above 30% they were generally over-represented in seats, often taking huge majorities.
The Guardian has an editorial today saying this system must change.
7) Labour’s fightback challenge
We don’t know yet how Labour will react to the results. Keir Starmer may face a leadership challenge. Even if he doesn’t, the party is going to have to come up with a response that goes beyond ‘Keep calm and carry on’. Elections function as transmission mechanisms; they deliver blunt messages to government and – unless the polls are 100% wrong – the message tonight will be that something needs to change.
So it will.
Updated
Here are some of the latest images from vote counts in England:
Updated
Meanwhile, as polls closed, deputy PM David Lammy said the elections had been “tough”.
He said:
I don’t want to sugarcoat it, the message from the doorstep is this is a tough election cycle.
This is a mid-term set of elections with people concerned about the cost of living and wanting to see the government go faster with quicker pace.
Lammy added that while Labour had run a “positive campaign”, the party’s “message of delivery” had been “drowned out by the politics of grievance”.
Lucy Powell, deputy Labour leader, added:
These elections are tough and took place in a difficult context. After over a decade of Britain being held back, working people up and down the country rightly want to see the whole of our United Kingdom firing on all cylinders in their interests. Labour has started to deliver on that promise and we are determined to make it happen everywhere for everyone.
Updated
Keir Starmer has thanked party activists after polls closed.
In a post on X, the prime minister said:
To all the Labour members and volunteers who have supported local campaigns across the country: thank you.Together we will build a stronger and fairer Britain.
These elections are widely seen as the biggest test for his premiership since the general election.
What to look out for in Scotland
Libby Brooks is the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent
Although the incumbent Scottish National party is cruising towards a gravity-defying fifth term in office, the fine detail of the results and the subsequent makeup of the Holyrood chamber remains exceptionally unpredictable.
Polls this week showed Reform UK, which has gained considerable momentum in Scotland over the past 18 months, was neck and neck for second place with Scottish Labour, whose rating have suffered from growing public dissatisfaction with the UK Labour government, despite its leader, Anas Sarwar, taking the career-defining decision to call for Starmer to stand aside in February.
Many constituency seats are in the balance, and the SNP is by no means guaranteed a majority. It could then turn to the Scottish Greens – who are anticipating a strong showing thanks in part to a Polanski bounce, although the Green Party of England and Wales is a separate entity – for support to create a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.
The SNP leader, John Swinney, has pledged to hold a vote seeking the powers to hold a second independence referendum on the first day of a new parliament – despite the fact that the UK government has consistently refused previous demands and he can offer no alternative route.
While the first full council result in England isn’t expected until 2am, there may be some smaller results from midnight.
I’ll bring you updates here, but to see the full results for England, Scotland and Wales you can head to our results tracker:
What to look out for in Wales
Bethan McKernan is the Guardian’s Wales correspondent
This week the Welsh parliament will grow from 60 to 96 members under a new, more proportional electoral system. Labour is expected to lose control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999, with Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth expected to become the new first minister, putting Welsh independence firmly on the agenda.
Coalition arithmetic makes it highly unlikely Reform will be able to form a government, even if it wins the most seats. If the numbers allow, Plaid Cymru will form a minority government without entering formal coalition agreements with Labour or the Green party.
Labour’s predicted losses are so catastrophic that some polls put the party in fourth place, after the Greens. Several polls suggest Eluned Morgan, the Labour first minister, will lose her seat.
The Senedd’s new list system has razor-sharp margins, making predictions very difficult. As little as 0.06% of the vote could decide the last (sixth) seat in each constituency, according to the pollsters More in Common.
Which results are we expecting first?
Aletha Adu is a Guardian political correspondent
The early hours of Friday morning will produce only a handful of declarations but they could shape the mood of the entire elections.
Hartlepool is one of the first major tests of whether Reform UK can convert polling momentum into real council gains. The declaration guide itself flags the possibility of Reform making significant advances there as one of the key storylines of the night.
If Reform performs strongly, Labour strategists will worry less about isolated local setbacks and more about the emergence of a durable anti-establishment challenger capable of eating into Labour’s old coalition in towns the party once considered safe.
Oxford could offer an early sign of how fragmented progressive and anti-Tory voters have become, with Labour, the Greens and Liberal Democrats all competing for similar voters. The declaration guide refers to “a mess of different liberal winners in Oxford”.
Dudley matters because it sits in politically volatile Midlands territory where Labour faces pressure from Reform amid frustration over immigration, living standards and distrust of Westminster politics.
You can see a full election results timeline here:
Polls closed in England, Scotland and Wales
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of election results in England, Scotland and Wales.
Thursday’s votes covered the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and 136 local councils in England, where 5,014 seats were contested, including every one on all of London’s 32 borough councils, more than a dozen borough councils, six unitary councils, six county councils and three district councils. A further 73 councils held elections for half or a third of the seats available.
There were also six mayoral contests – in Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford.
So, there is a lot to come…
We’re expecting the first results in England between midnight and 2am, but counting in Scotland and Wales does not begin until around 9am – so those results are some way off.
As ever, we’ll bring you the latest news, colour and reaction throughout the night.
Feel free to get in touch – hamish.mackay@theguardian.com – if you spot any errors. My colleague Andrew Sparrow will take over at 6am, and comments will open from 8am.
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