Will there be protracted post-election negotiations? Will New Zealand First be willing to support a National/Act coalition, or will it attempt to become National’s preferred partner and reduce Act to a supporting role?
Opinion: The sad, sudden death of the Act candidate for Port Waikato and the resulting by-election has made an already unusual election even more bizarre. It came on top of Labour abandoning any pretence of defending its record in government in favour of all-out attack on National. Meanwhile, National, in a performance reminiscent of the best of “amateur hour” at the local pub, managed to simultaneously endorse New Zealand First as a potential coalition partner and threaten a fresh election if such a coalition became necessary.
In a few days, all these shenanigans will thankfully be in the past, and the focus will shift to the shape of the Parliament voters have delivered for the next three years.
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Based on recent polling averages at the middle of election week, Labour looks likely to win 35 seats (down from 64 at present); National 46 (up 11); the Greens 15 (up five); Act 11 (up one); Te Pāti Māori four (up two), and New Zealand First nine. The pending Port Waikato by-election should be won by National, as it is a safe National seat. This would give the National/Act bloc 58 seats in a 121 seat Parliament – three short of a majority.
Labour currently holds 45 electorate seats and 19 list seats. On current polling it looks likely to lose Northland, Whangarei, Maungakiekie, Tukituki, Upper Harbour, Northcote, New Plymouth, Otaki, Hamilton East, Ilam, and Hutt South to National. National is also likely to regain Rangitata, East Coast, and Whanganui from Labour, but looks less likely to win Nelson or Wairarapa. Labour is also at risk in Ohariu, and Wellington Central where the Greens have a strong chance.
The upshot could see Labour reduced to about 30 electorate seats, and therefore just five list MPs. Such a result would see ministers Willow-Jean Prime, Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Ginny Andersen, and Jo Luxton defeated in their electorates, and not high enough on the list to get back to Parliament. Labour’s five list MPs would be ministers Grant Robertson, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson and Willow-Jean Prime. Ministers standing only on the list who would be defeated are Andrew Little, David Parker, and Peeni Henare. Speaker Adrian Rurawhe would also be a casualty.
The implications of such a result for Labour would be profound – not just in terms of the loss of government, but more especially Labour’s future over the next few years. With Robertson already having ruled himself out of leadership contention and likely to move on in any case if Labour is defeated, and the loss of up-and-coming performers such as Andersen, and well-regarded backbencher Camilla Belich (a current list MP) Labour’s top tier in a post-Hipkins era looks extremely thin.
National’s 46 to 47 seats (post the Port Waikato by-election) are likely to comprise 39 electorate seats and seven to eight list seats. No National electorate seats are currently considered to be at risk of falling to Labour. But there is an intriguing contest in the stronghold of Tamaki where Act deputy leader Brooke van Velden is working hard to topple four-term incumbent Simon O’Connor. At number 54 on National’s list, O’Connor will not make it back to Parliament if he loses Tamaki.
Sitting list MPs Nicola Willis (if she does not win Ohariu), Paul Goldsmith, Melissa Lee, Gerry Brownlee, and Maureen Pugh are likely to be returned, along with former MP Agnes Loheni. Impressive newcomer Nancy Lu will be there too, potentially joined by Emma Chatterton (cutting her political teeth against Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in Remutaka). James Christmas (potentially Attorney-General in a National-led government) is on the brink, and current list MP Harete Hipango will probably miss out.
For the Greens, the election could produce 15 MPs – its highest number yet. But given Labour’s likely result, the Greens will be out of government. Most interest will be in Auckland Central where polls show sitting MP Chlöe Swarbrick only narrowly ahead of her National opponent, and Wellington Central where a tight three-way race is unfolding in the battle to replace Grant Robertson. These results will affect whether former Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown (15 on the Greens list) makes it to Parliament.
For Act, likely to win about 11 seats, the major question is whether Van Velden can topple Simon O’Connor in Tamaki to join David Seymour as the party’s second electorate MP. New Zealand First’s position is more straightforward – it will not win any electorate seats, so all its MPs will be list MPs if its vote holds up and it wins the 9 list seats currently projected. In that event, Andy Foster (seven on the list) could become the second former Wellington Mayor to be elected this election.
Te Pāti Māori will retain the Waiariki seat but looks unlikely to win either Ikaroa-Rāwhiti (where former Labour minister and sitting MP Meka Whaitiri is standing) or Te Tai Hauāuru (where deputy leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is standing). However, an upset is possible in Waikato-Tainui currently held by Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta. Overall, Te Pāti Māori looks likely to win four seats, meaning Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke (four on the list), at just 20 years old, could become New Zealand’s youngest MP.
Should these results come to pass New Zealand could enter the period of post-election “limboland” Sir John Key warned about last week. While on these predictions, the National/Act bloc would emerge as the largest grouping, it would still be short of a majority, even after the Port Waikato by-election on November 25. That means National having to deal with New Zealand First. Are we therefore in for another period of protracted post-election negotiations? Will New Zealand First be willing to support a National/Act coalition, or will it attempt to become National’s preferred partner and reduce Act to the role of supporting a National/New Zealand First government? And how stable would that be?
The many twists and turns of the 2023 election are not over yet.
