The preference flow in Hunter and Paterson became somewhat clearer on Friday when One Nation and Stuart Bonds put Coalition candidates above Labor on their how-to-vote cards.
As Election Diary has pointed out before, this doesn't mean all One Nation and Bonds voters will follow the candidates' preference lists.
The minor candidates will find it hard to man booths to hand out how-to-vote cards, and some of their supporters may prove a bit more free-minded when it comes to numbering boxes.
In 2019, 30 per cent of Bonds (when he was running for One Nation) and UAP voters in Hunter directed their preferences to Labor and 70 per cent went for the Nats.
If Labor's Dan Repacholi gets a primary vote in the high 30s, preferences from Greens voters (who, strangely, directed a quarter of their preferences to the Nats in 2019) and other minor parties could be enough.
Labor strategists are hopeful the minor-party vote will fracture between the two independents, UAP, One Nation and the Informed Medical Options Party in Hunter and make it harder for them to steer preferences to the Nats.
The story in Paterson is a little different.
Labor's Meryl Swanson had her margin halved in 2019, from 10 to 5 per cent, but it would have been worse had the preferences flowed as they did in Hunter.
Forty-five per cent of the One Nation preferences and 42 per cent of UAP preferences in Paterson went to Labor, while the rest went to Liberal candidate Sachin Joshi.
This time around, Liberal candidate Brooke Vitnell hopes to improve her share of the preference flow and spring an upset.
Swanson told ED she was "in the fight of my life".
Sympathy vote
Albo and Richard Marles might have succumbed to coronavirus, but Swanson hasn't let a busted achilles keep her from the hustings.
The Paterson MP was putting a box into her car in Maitland last weekend when she stumbled on the kerb and tore a tendon.
She had an MRI on Thursday and is waiting to find out if she needs surgery. She's expected to be in a moon boot for six weeks.
That would be a 'no'
Pauline Hanson's chief of staff, James Ashby, has denied One Nation supported controversial industrial relations reforms last year in return for second spot on the LNP's Queensland senate how-to-vote cards.
An irate Stuart Bonds, One Nation's best-performing house of reps candidate in 2019, quit the party last year after Hanson and fellow senator Malcolm Roberts voted for the changes.
News emerged on Friday that the LNP was urging voters to put One Nation second on senate ballot papers in Queensland, where Hanson is seeking re-election.
ED asked Ashby whether the LNP's support was part of a deal with One Nation on the IR laws. "Simple response - NO," he replied.
Nats like Facebook
The University of Queensland's Election Ad Data Dashboard shows Hunter is in the top 30 seats for Facebook ad spend.
The dashboard says the Nats have forked out $12,549 on Facebook ads in the seat, compared with Labor's $1982 and the Greens' $198.
Hunter is placed 23rd on the list. No other seat in the region is in the top 30.
Signing off
With 21 days to go before election day, the customary hand-wringing over campaign corflutes is in full swing.
Paterson Liberal candidate Brooke Vitnell reported last week that one of her signs had been vandalised, and this week she told Election Diary that more had been wrecked.
We're told the Libs' hope in Shortland, Nell McGill, has had swastikas drawn on some of her signs.
Meanwhile, Labor has pointed out that Nats Hunter candidate James Thomson's numerous corflutes in Cessnock and west Lake Macquarie have been naughtily screwed into trees and attached to telegraph poles and even traffic lights.
Thomson told ED some of his volunteers had been overzealous in their attempts to spread the word and he had ordered the offending signs be removed.
The Nats say some union-backed signs attacking Scomo and other corflutes from the Informed Medical Options Party, One Nation and Stuart Bonds have also been attached to poles and trees.
Ausgrid sent a letter to candidates this week reminding them it was an offence under the Electricity Supply Act to "touch or interfere with any electricity assets without approval".
"This includes attaching campaign posters or any other campaign material to power poles," the letter read.
We've been told Ausgrid and council employees have started taking down some of the posters.
Joyce wings clipped
Nats leader Barnaby Joyce was due to grace Singleton with his presence on Friday for a photo op with Thomson, but some of the crew on his RAAF flight were taken ill.
We suspect he may be back sooner rather than later.
Left (and right) out
ED has been told Dan Repacholi and Dale McNamara missed out on a chance to lay wreaths during the mid-morning ANZAC Day service in Singleton on Monday.
Thomson was among those whose names were read out to come forward, and he was introduced on the public address system as "James Thomson MP".
The Labor and One Nation candidates were left standing in the crowd.
McNamara, especially, was not pleased, we're told.
Bookies back Labor
Sportsbet has Repacholi at $1.30 to retain Hunter for Labor and Thomson at $3.25, ahead of Bonds on the third line of betting at $18.
The bookmaker hasn't framed a market for the region's three other seats, but it has Labor as a strong $1.44 favourite to form goverment, ahead of the Coalition on $2.72.
It also thinks a hung parliament is slightly less likely ($2.25) than either party forming government in its own right ($1.60).
