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Politics
Murray Leith, Professor of Political Science, University of the West of Scotland

Election 2024: Scotland headed for huge change with SNP set to lose dozens of seats to Labour

Scotland, it was claimed by first minister and SNP leader John Swinney, is again being “disrespected” by the Conservatives. This was his response to the news that the UK election would be held on July 4 – after many Scottish schools have already broken up for the summer, and just as a lot of families will be taking off on holiday. To Swinney (and others), this was just another example of Scotland being an afterthought for Westminster.

It may indeed be the case that Scotland was not a major factor in Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a July election. After all, Scotland only returned six Conservative MPs in 2019 (down from 13 in 2017) out of a total of 59. Voters overwhelmingly chose the SNP, which took 45% of the vote and 48 seats, thereby making it the third-largest party in Westminster (again).

This has been a pattern since the Scottish independence referendum of 2014, which triggered a political realignment. Ever since, the Scottish electorate appears to have voted according to constitutional preference, rather than making a wider, issues-based consideration. Those who voted for independence supported the SNP in Westminster elections, while those who opposed it mostly backed Labour or the Conservatives.

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