In his opinion on the Coalition's plan for nuclear power stations ('Opposition's nuclear plan no help to coal power workers,' NH 26/6/24), president of NSW Northern Mining and Energy Union Robin Williams says it doesn't stack up. Multiple energy experts - without skin in the politics of energy - say similar things. The nuclear option is a political distraction, writes Williams, rather than a genuine solution to energy security, jobs and the wellbeing of Hunter communities.
Unfortunately, the Coalition's nuclear nonsense meant that an Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) report last week received little public exposure. It merits close examination. AEMO is the national body charged with ensuring households and businesses have access to affordable, reliable electricity and gas supplies. AEMO is required by law to give regular updates on the outlook for energy security.
Central to its work is monitoring the rollout of investments in wind and solar generation, battery and hydro storage, back-up gas-fired power stations, and transmission lines to link it together. The rollout is appraised in an Integrated Storage Plan (ISP) and AEMO completes one every two years. AEMO's first ISP appeared in 2018, so they are hardly a new thing, and certainly pre-date the Albanese Labor government and its renewables policy. Each ISP has in-depth appraisals of both government and private sector projects. It's complex, with intricate modelling to measure the impact of each and every initiative on energy prices and availability.
Interestingly, AEMO's modelling is watched closely by private agencies that run their own models. Identifying opportunities ahead of the pack can deliver lucrative returns to canny investors in the energy sector. Google "Renew Economy ISP model" and you can play with a model designed by energy wonk Alex Wonhas. Be warned, these models are for specialists. The point is: they exist, they contain detailed costings, they can be scrutinised, and they have been around for a while. The renewables rollout is well and truly underway. Experts (policy makers, engineers, planners, financiers) are in control. Regulators such as AEMO are watching for potential system failures and cost blow-outs.
So what does AEMO tell us in its 2024 report? Upfront, it rings the bell on the impacts of the closure of Australia's remaining coal-fired power stations. Ten stations have closed since 2012. AEMO predicts 90 per cent of the remaining capacity will be closed by 2035, and then the lot before 2040.
Shifting from coal to renewables is a massive undertaking. AEMO says the annualised capital cost of new generation, storage and transmission will total $122 billion. Yes, per year, but the $122 billion includes both investment and operating expenditure from the public and private sectors. And the lion's share will be recovered from energy bills.
Last year, renewable energy accounted for 40 per cent of all electricity used in Australia, says AEMO. But the federal government target of having 82 per cent of electricity consumption met by renewables by 2030 will be a tough get, it adds. The rollout of high-voltage transmission lines is crucial. Delays are occurring in most transmission corridors due to opposition from land holders and communities. AEMO urges better community engagement and effective consultation on transmission projects.
The body responsible for transmission planning in NSW, EnergyCo, needs to take heed. I am a member (unpaid) of EnergyCo's regional reference group for the Hunter Transmission Project; and, in my view, information access and community consultation have yet to reach the standards you'd expect with such a crucial infrastructure project.
AEMO is right to express concern at delays to transmission projects. Cables and wires are central to the shift to renewables. Yet steamrolling affected communities isn't the answer. There are proven ways of engaging communities in genuine planning partnerships, and these lead to better, more timely, outcomes. It would be nice, a few years hence, to be able to nominate EnergyCo as having achieved best practice in its Hunter endeavour.
