During the failed August 1991 putsch in Russia, the good guys were reformers Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin. The bad guys were an incompetent claque of the military and KGB within the Politburo and the rebellion fizzled when Yeltsin climbed on that tank in Moscow. The Kremlin’s nukes were kept secure and the world caught its breath. The once all powerful Soviet Union then peacefully flickered out of existence a few months later.
Today, there is a lot less optimism over the standoff in Russia. There is no white hat promising freedom and liberty, but black hats only with Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner Group of mercenaries versus Vladimir Putin and another really bad guy, the dictator of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, being the truce-maker.
Again, the same question: Are the nukes secured from rogue elements? And it seems the answer is thankfully yes. The added question is whether the only good guys around, the invaded Ukrainians, can get some relief from the open quarreling in the Russian camp. We can only hope so.
Putin’s horrible war of conquest against Ukraine is what caused all of this. Prigozhin’s Wagner army for hire has been the only effective force for the Kremlin against Kyiv. And it was Prigozhin’s extraordinary criticism of the Russian ministry of defense for bumbling leadership in the Ukraine war that led to his rebellion. Prigozhin doesn’t want peace with Ukraine; he wants a stronger war effort.
Having called off his treasonous march on Moscow to return to the Ukraine front, will Prigozhin succeed in strengthening the Kremlin’s fighting agility, as the Ukrainians ready their own counteroffensive? The Americans and our allies have to help Ukraine succeed this summer, as defeating Prigozhin and Putin on the battlefield is a must.
The poor wartime performance of Czar Nicholas’s Russian Army in 1905 (against Japan) and 1917 (against the Kaiser) both precipitated revolutions in Russia. We will see if the poor wartime performance of Czar Vladimir’s Russian Army in Ukraine will do the same. The world watches.
